The deadline for college football players to decide whether they are going to enter the NFL draft is Jan. 15.
A number of stars – including Georgia receiver A.J. Green, LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson, Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett and Alabama defensive lineman Marcel Dareus, receiver Julio Jones and running back Mark Ingram — have declared for the NFL. Stanford star quarterback Andrew Luck has said he will return for his redshirt junior season.
All of these decisions will greatly shape the college football landscape. There will be a few more decisions that will alter the shape of the 2011 season, including the plans of Auburn’s two big stars – Heisman Trophy quarterback Cam Newton and Lombardi-winning defensive lineman Nick Fairley. If Newton and Fairley both return – which seems highly unlikely since each is given a first-round grade by NFL draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. – the Tigers will be picked among the nation’s elite despite the massive hole left by the four senior offensive linemen who started in Monday’s BCS title game.
The bet here is Newton and Fairley ended their college careers in Glendale, Ariz., against Oregon. With that as the baseline, here is our annual way-too-early-look at a possible guess and what could be some of the teams contending in the college football top 10 in 2011 (that was vague enough to cover our bases, right?):
1. Oklahoma: Receiver Ryan Broyles, who had a mind-numbing 131 catches, is coming back. So is linebacker Travis Lewis. In fact, so is a large number of the starters for Sooners, who finished 12-2 after their Fiesta Bowl smackdown of UConn. Plus, the conference schedule will be easier with Nebraska’s departure.
2. Florida State: The Seminoles finished 10-4 in Jimbo Fisher’s first season. With a star-filled recruiting class on the horizon and eight starters returning on each side of the ball, the Seminoles appear to be back among the nation’s elite. If E.J. Manuel can become a reliable quarterback, FSU has all the pieces in place.
3. LSU: Yes, the Tigers lost Peterson, who likely will be the first defensive back drafted and will be a top-five pick. But the biggest question may be whether LSU has to replace its coach. Les Miles appears to be a finalist for the job at Michigan, his alma mater. Whoever coaches the Tigers, talent will not be a problem. The offense looked great in the Cotton Bowl, and nine offensive starters — including four linemen – return.
4. Boise State: The Broncos’ late-season stumble at Nevada aside, they appear to be loaded again in 2011. The offense will need to replace top-flight receivers Austin Pettis and Titus Young, but with quarterback Kellen Moore back and seven starters on defense returning, the talent is there. If BSU can survive the opener against Georgia, it again will be among the teams in the hunt for the BCS title.
5. Stanford: Luck’s return and an athletic defense that welcomes back seven starters will give Jim Harbaugh’s replacement some big expectations from the start. The big challenge for the Cardinal will be replacing Owen Marecic, a world-class leader who amazingly in today’s game was a starter at fullback and linebacker (read that last part again).
6. South Carolina: Coach Steve Spurrier’s time appears to be now in Columbia. The good news is that 17 starters return, including big-time skill players Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery, the entire secondary and quarterback Stephen Garcia. The bad news is that four of a top-notch front seven must be replaced and quarterback Stephen Garcia is back. The enigmatic Garcia belongs in both categories.
7. Alabama: The Crimson Tide were hurt by defections more than any team, but that generally means there’s a lot of talent on hand. The Tide will have to find a receiver or two and need quarterback A.J. McCarron to develop quickly, but the offensive line will be among the best in the nation and a young defense that took some lumps will be much improved this fall.
8. Oregon: Regardless of what happened in the BCS title game, these Ducks will not be a flash in the pan. Chip Kelly’s club will have one of the nation’s top collection of skill players with quarterback Darron Thomas and running back LaMichael James returning.
9. Wisconsin: There are few questions about the Badgers’ talent, especially since running back John Clay declared for the draft and Wisconsin hardly noticed. The Badgers are deep and physical and play their first six games at home in the new-look subdivided Big Ten. The only question marks will be the trip to Ohio State and whether the Badgers are in the Legends or the Leaders division (or when they rename the leagues, are they in the Big or Slow divison or the Dungeons or Dragons division)?
10. Southern Cal: The Trojans will not be able to play in the postseason, but they will be able to play with most anyone in the country. Seven offensive starters return, including quarterback Matt Barkley, and we all know that coach Lane Kiffin can recruit. The defense returns eight starters, and a new wave of talent is coming. That is unless Kiffin decides to bolt for Michigan or the Denver Broncos or Calgary Stampeders between now and the start of spring practice.