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Thursday, November 12, 2026Nov 12

5-at-10: Friday mailbag with NFL picks, NFL opening night thoughts, Braves ace?, UT dilemma, Antonio Brown and hate mail

Jay Greeson
Jay Greeson Jay Greeson

You guys are pick hungry – good and bad. Let’s open the bag.

Jay, Thanks for the Packers winner!!! Very entertaining.

You got any more?

AND

Enjoy the ZONE ARE you doing your FAB 5 this year? If so, where do I find?

Thanks.

AND

Sir, please keep your college picks to yourself – you can’t pick games worth anything. Why does David not pick games? He got 80% right in the paper and you missed more than you got correct.

AND

This looks like the year your hot streak stops on your Not Very Fab picks. I think I am going to take the opposite side of the teams you pick and win some money.


Gang –

OK, the NFL started quickly in the preseason. A 16-8 mark against the numbers was very entertaining.

Last week, we’ll take the heckling of a 6-7 week. So it goes. (Though, three of those losses ranged from bad to historically bad beats. USC was up two scores and lost its starting quarterback before halftime and was up 31-13 heading to the fourth quarter and failed to cover. The other USC also surrendered a double-digit fourth-quarter lead. And we all know what happened with Stanford and Northwestern.)

So feel free to fade my picks all you want. (Side note: As a bonus information point: If you have to play a game tonight, I like Boise State minus-12 at home, but the biggest takeaway for the weekend could be from the Wake-Rice game. Rice was really bad last year, but was right there till the end last week with Army. If Wake, which is favored by 19, boat races Rice, that could mean that Michigan will flat-out roll Army on Saturday.)

We’re 1-0 on the NFL with the Packers winning outright as a 3-point road dog. Good times.

Let’s pick our pro Fab 4. Giddy-up.

Patriots minus-5.5 over Pittsburgh. Why, because you know. Belichick and Brady are the original Killer Bs (at least of this generation). I think I’d take the Pats, at home, laying less than a TD in every game against any foe.

Baltimore minus-6 at Miami. Speaking of picking a horse and ride, not only do I think Baltimore has a chance to be really good, but I think I will pick against the Dolphins as long as they are getting less than seven. Every single time.

Rams minus-2 at Carolina. Here’s betting a lot of us will regret not drafting Todd Gurley, who has been laying low and who is as good as anyone when healthy.

Cleveland minus-5 over Tennessee. Regulars around these parts know I am not sold on Marcus Mariota in general. Now remember that the Titans best O-lineman – and arguably their best offensive player – is Taylor Lewan, who is suspended for the first four games. Lewan’s replacement will try to protect Mariota’s blind side against one Myles Garrett, who is a D-U-D-E.

Preseason: 16-8 against the spread

This week (so far): 1-0 against the spread

This season (so far): 1-0 against the spread



From Scott

Did you really pick the Packers to get to the Super Bowl?!?! Man, you are a LeBron and Rodgers homer for real.

Scott

Some quick reactions form last night’s Packers’ win:

> Aaron Rodgers is so much fun to watch.

> If you are a Johnny Bears Fan, you have to be extremely concerned with how Mitch Trubisky looked last night. Egad. Then you remember he was the No. 2 pick in the draft that had Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson picked later in Round 1. Ouch-standing.

> The Bears are going to be a nightmare defensively for fantasy football owners.

> The Packers defense, whether it was Trubisky’s troubles or just improved talent, looked ready to take the next step.

> The TV numbers are going to be huge, and according to early reports, there will be some interesting trends to follow to see if there is an increase in the TV ratings for major cities that now have legalized gambling.



From Matt

I’d just like to refer back to these tweets to show just how correct we were. And now (Max Fried) has a slider? Lord have mercy on the hitters, cause Max Fried won’t.

Matt

Hard not to like what Max Fried did last night and what the Braves have done in the last three weeks to distance themselves from the rest of the NL East.

Man, this bunch is cruising.

And Fried’s stuff has been electric and erratic. He has 16 wins, which is tied for tops in the NL, because he’s getting the most run support in baseball at roughly seven runs per start.

But when he’s spinning it like he did last night – seven innings, one hit, nine Ks – he has top-of-the-rotation stuff. Heater in the mid-to-upper 90s. Plus change. Plus-plus curve. And emerging slider. Egad.

And he has to generate confidence in his teammates every time he gets the ball.

He has won seven straight decisions and the Braves have won each of his last nine starts. The Braves are 21-6 in Fried’s starts this season.

That’s ace-level stuff right there.