Predicting precisely what path a tropical storm might take and what damage it might cause is not a perfect science, but it is increasingly clear that Hurricane Irene poses what many meteorologists are calling an “extraordinary” threat to the United States, particularly coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic states and in the heavily populated urban corridor of the Northeast. Emergency officials from the Carolinas to Maine are urging residents to take precautions. Given the size and strength of the storm, heeding the warnings would be wise.
The hurricane, a category 3 with winds of 115 mph, battered the Bahamas on Thursday. Six to 10 inches rain was common there, and high winds and a storm surge that could raise water levels by as much as 10-11 feet exacerbated hurricane-related damage. The storm is expected to be off the Florida coast by today and then advance steadily toward the Northeast and New England during the weekend. The impact could be devastating.
Though the precise path of Irene could still change, forecasters now believe the heart of the storm will move up the Atlantic seaboard, staying offshore until making a possible landfall sometime Sunday somewhere east of New York City. From there, they predict, it will move into New England, though in a weakened state. That’s a course that understandably frightens emergency and public safety officials. It should.
If the storm follows that path, it will expose 50 million or more residents of the coastal and New England states to potential harm. Though many people in the projected path of the storm are familiar with the capriciousness and power of hurricanes, many others are not. A major hurricane has not hit New York and New England for decades. Preparing for a storm of such magnitude, then, is something new for both emergency planners and for residents.
Preparations were under way Thursday up and down the coast. North Carolina officials, for example, ordered hundreds of thousands of residents and tourists to evacuate four coastal counties, including the Outer Banks, where the storm is expected to hit on Saturday. Most people in the affected area were either leaving or preparing to do so on Thursday, though officials publicly fretted that there were individuals determined to ride out the storm. That’s a choice that could have deadly consequences in a worst case scenario.