Sometime in the next few days the Congressional Budget Office will release its analysis of the latest version of the Republican health care plan. Sen. Mitch McConnell is doing all he can to prevent a full assessment, for example by trying to keep the CBO from scoring the Cruz provision, which would let insurers discriminate against people with pre-existing conditions. Nonetheless, everyone expects a grim prognosis.
As a result, White House aides are already attacking CBO’s credibility, announcing in advance that whatever it says will be “fake news.” So why should we believe the budget office, not the Trump administration? Let me count the ways.
First, this White House already has a record of constant, blatant lying about health care. Just a few days ago, for example, Vice President Mike Pence made the completely false assertion that Ohio’s expansion of Medicaid led to a cutback in aid for the disabled – a lie that the state’s government had already refuted. On Sunday, Tom Price, the secretary of Health and Human Services, claimed that the Senate bill would cover more people than current law – another blatant lie.
Second, the CBO is hardly alone in its negative assessments of Republican health care plans. In fact, just about every group with knowledge of the issue has reached similar conclusions. In a joint letter, the two major insurance industry trade groups blasted the Cruz provision as “simply unworkable.” AARP has condemned the bill, as has the American Medical Association.
Third, contrary to White House disinformation, the CBO actually did a pretty good job of predicting the effects of the Affordable Care Act, especially when you bear in mind that the act was a leap into the unknown: we had very little experience of how an ACA-type system would work.