CONCORD, N.H. (AP) – The annual Old Farmer’s Almanac, which claims an 80 percent accuracy rate in its forecasts, predicted the possibility of a major hurricane along the Atlantic Seaboard, but didn’t have the same insight about the Gulf Coast.
When it came out a year ago, the venerable guide to weather, planting and homespun advice said the best chances for a major hurricane this year would be in the early part of September, from Florida to North Carolina. As of Friday, there were three active hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, with Hurricane Irma remaining a powerful threat to Florida. And the hurricane season still has two more months to go.
Almanac compilers in Dublin, New Hampshire, base predictions on a “secret formula” going back to 1792 that’s influenced by sunspots, climatology and meteorology and refined by modern scientific calculations.
Almanac editor Janice Stillman said a hurricane the size and scope of Harvey would’ve been difficult to forecast.
“The Gulf Coast was not in our direct line of sight, so to speak,” she said. “It was not a named area, although, it’s certainly a normal target, if you will, for hurricanes at any time.”