Well, what could have been a highly entertaining second chapter of the bowl picks fluttered to a 4-4 stretch over the middle pack of college postseason predictions.
So it goes.
But now the plate really gets full. It’s time for the Camellia to give way to the Rose, the Popeye’s to give way to the Chick-fil-A, the Cactus to give way to the Citrus. It’s time for the main courses.
(Side note: If you are in the camp that there are too many bowl games, well, that’s OK. Turn the channel. Watch another sitcom flip the script on a familiar Christmas storyline. Or maybe another run of “Law & Order.” This year the bowl games have been fun to watch – if not always entertaining in all ways – and competitive for the most part. Also, the three 5-7 teams plucked to fill the bowl slots are 3-0 this postseason.)
Now, if the entertainment can only match the fun. On to round three of the picks, and yes, we went a little overboard.
Alabama minus-9.5 over Michigan State. All the reports out of Dallas have touched on how focused the Crimson Tide are. Heck, even Nick Saban has praised this team’s ethic and approach. (No word if Saban fainted after praising something, but we would not be surprised.) We have shared a few of our entertainment guidelines, but here’s one more: No one out-Alabamas Alabama. So lining it up and running off tackle and trying to get some play-action working simply doesn’t work against the Tide. What does Michigan State like to do? Yep, run off tackle and set up the play-action. Good luck with that, Sparty.
Michigan-Florida under 40. First team to 17 wins. Truly the only way this one goes over is if the game goes to overtime.
Stanford minus-6.5 over Iowa. Ah, the Rose Bowl – the one bowl through the years that is the least affected by the bowl swings of motivation, because all Big Ten and Pac-12 teams start the season hoping to get here. Stanford’s Cardinal are better at almost every position. This one feels like a bloodbath waiting to happen, no matter how good the Iowa feel-good story felt.
Ole Miss minus-7 over Oklahoma State. OK, kids, math lesson here. If Team A scored 43 points against the best defense in the country and Team Oklahoma State has allowed an average of more than 43 points over its last five games, what’s the baseline for points for Team A? We’d start at 43 and work up. Now, add the fact that Team A has a slew of draft-worthy juniors who may be playing their final game for Team A. Also, add in that this game is in the Sugar Bowl and that New Orleans will be overrun by Team A supporters. Sign us up for Team A (and buy the half). (OK, enough with the secrets: Team A is Ole Miss.)
TCU even over Oregon. Buckle up. The over/under here is approaching 80, and with two of the more athletic quarterbacks in the country, that number seems fair. And maybe we are reaching on this one a little because we want to have a little extra entertainment on what figures to be the most entertaining game left. Here’s what we believe, though: Senior quarterbacks like TCU’s Trevone Boykin find ways to win games like these.
Mississippi State minus-6 over N.C. State. Speaking of experienced quarterbacks finding ways to walk into the sunset with success, that applies here with Dak Prescott, too. And as much as he has meant to the Bulldogs and to coach Dan Mullen, here’s believing that the entire MSU bunch wants to win this one for Dak more than most teams want to win the Belk Bowl.
Georgia-Penn State under 43. Did you know that Georgia’s defense is a top-10 group nationally? Did you know that Penn State has the nation’s sack leader? Did you know that NBC’s old-school “The More You Know” campaign was wildly successful. Where were we? Oh, yes, the TaxSlayer Bowl. Another slugfest that screams 17-14. TaxSlayer Bowl? Man, the names of these things never disappoint. In fact, the more we think about it, aren’t we all a little surprised that there’s not a “Trump 2016 Bowl” somewhere this postseason. It could have been sponsored by the NRA, and think of the bowl swag.
USC minus-3 over Wisconsin. Wisconsin’s Badgers may be the most hollow nine-win team ever. They were underdogs just once this year – getting 13 points in the opening 35-17 loss to Alabama – and still lost three games. The Badgers’ best win was a 10-point victory over Minnesota. The Gophers, not the Vikings.
Auburn minus-3 over Memphis. Another chance to buy the half – yea, insurance – and while Auburn has disappointed all year, and Memphis has overachieved, the coaching turmoil balances any momentum the northernmost Tigers would bring to Birmingham. And then there’s the locale, which figures to have a decided Auburn lean. Yes, Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch is a future NFL first-rounder, but Auburn has the advantage athletically almost everywhere else. (Side note: In this Birmingham all-Tigers matchup, it seems appropriate to have a mini-Rushmore of Tigers. Tiger Woods is far left. Then there’s Tiger, the Brady Bunch’s loyal dog, Tony the Tiger – because he’s GRRRR-reat – and finally Tigger over those tigers that try to maul Maximus in “Gladiator” and Al Kaline.)
* Note: Spreads are from Tuesday night; pick records include a few online picks omitted from print.
Round two of bowl picks against the spread: 5-3 (62.5 percent)
Total bowl picks against the spread: 6-7 (46.2 percent)
Regular season against the spread: 57-39 (59.4 percent)
Fab 4 picks all-time (since the start of the 2011 season) against the spread: 349-231-6 (60.2 percent)