5-at-10: Friday mailbag with ESPN troubles, NCAA decisions, Titans coaching question, and a ‘Thank-You’ to Jacob Huesman

From Moctastic

There could be a side effect of the NCAA decision on college players and the NBA draft. Lets say you coach a team. You have two juniors who declare, so, do you go out and sign two players (and fill your roster) to replace them? If you do and the players opt out of the draft what do you do with the two you signed? Are they now left out in the cold in late May when most teams now have their scholarships taken?

Or will you see more bottom of the roster kids suddenly being processed and having their scholarships revoked at the last minute? Remembering that as now, kids sign one year scholarships year to year. Okay, so these kids who get “processed” are now on the outside looking in. Because some kid willy nilly declared for the draft, they are without a scholarship.

IMO the NCAA needs to rethink the whole process and figure out how to do this without messing with other kid’s scholarships, which will be an un-intentional side effect. Knowing that you can withdraw you might see more and more kids declare for the draft each year knowing they can reverse the decision easier.

The same scenario would exist if football goes down the same road. All this being said, I agree with the concept, but I think they need to really re-think the implemenation of it, maybe even get the NBA to move up the draft combines to immediately after March Madness and before the April signing date, possibly moving back the signing date a week or two if need be.

JG, what say you?

MT –

We say, like we normally, do, that we appreciate regulars around these parts like you who raise interesting and reasoned points of discussion. Kudos.

And yes, the ripples from this and the scenarios you paint would make this decision an even better situation. Adjusting the calendar of events to maximize the benefits of all the scholarship basketball players should be examined.

Absolutely, let’s overhaul this to make sure the current players are protected the most – both the kids exploring the NBA and the kids who maybe at the end of the bench. The next step should be adjusting the date of the April signing period. We also would be for some sort of by-law on last-in, first-out on too many scholarships come May. (Another way could be moving all basketball signings into the early signing period to begin with.)

That said, college recruiting is such a cut-throat, shark-infested arena, that it would not take too many pulled scholarships for that news to get out and really hurt the recruiting efforts of almost every program this side of Duke and UK.

The reason we believe pushing the declaration date back is such a win for the players is it allows them more time and information.

And as Stewwie referenced, this may be more tough on the coach than good for the kid, but so be it. We want it to be tough on the coach, who is getting obscene money at the major schools where this happens the most frequently.

The bigger problem in college hoops is too many guys wrongly declaring for the draft and giving away a chance at a degree, and if this helps address that, then dealing with the unintended ripples should be addressed next.

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From Jake

I was really hoping the Titans would have hired Chip Kelly.

Now that he’s in San Fran, what do you think of that hire and who do you think the Titans will get?

And did I hear you say on Press Row that you think the Titans are going to move out of Nashville? No way man. No way.

Thanks and enjoy your show.

Jake –

We have to ask. Do you work for State Farm and what are you wearing? (The answer of course is “Khakis.”)

I thought the Chip Kelly-to-Tennessee thing was interesting, especially with the Marcus Mariota potential, but without a strong GM in place from the start, it never really had a chance.

As for your first question, well, we think Kelly is going to do very well in San Francisco. We think the humbling he got from the Philadelphia implosion will be good for him. We also think he will focus more on coaching than front office-type stuff and that will be much to his benefit and liking.

The big question in S.F. will be what to do with Colin Kaepernick, who has the skill set to look like a nice fit in Kelly’s system but also has a contract that may be price/cap-prohibitive to keep him.

As for the Titans, we think Josh McDaniels – the former Broncos head coach and current New England offensive coordinator – will get a long look. We also think he would be a good hire since he has the experience of seeing what didn’t work in his first run and the first-hand knowledge of how it can work with the Patriots.

In regard to the moving, we said the Titans would be right there with the Jags among the next group of teams who could move, not that they are going to move.

Great question and thanks for listening.

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From Jomo

Jay- for the mailbag, ESPN is contracted for $6 Billion A YEAR for rights fees to sports. ESPN is only bringing in $4 billion in subscriber fees, and that number is shrinking faster each year with unbundling, cord-cutting and a Netflix generation of 20’somethings who have never had cable. Statistics show that with a la carte cable pricing only 6% of all cable subscribers would be willing to pay extra for ESPN. With all due respect ESPN is a dead man walking business. Just like Blockbuster video, etc. And NO it is NOT too big to fail. When it fails, at least the existing cash spending model, and NOT IF it fails, can you imagine the Big-time college ripples that will be felt ? All but maybe 6 of the bowl games only exist because ESPN pays for them. The SEC network ? Goodbye. Coaches salaries that are funded by cable TV revenues ? Goodbye. Facilities by the power 5 conference that are financed by future TV revenues ? put in moth balls. NFL doesn’t depend on ESPN, neither does baseball or NBA or College basketball. The only sport that depends on ESPN and the fees they pay is Big-time College Football. Armageddon is coming and it will have to be bailed out by TICKET prices. Are you will to pay $500 to $1,000 A GAME to go to see a college football game ? get ready.

Jomo –

OK, let’s set some things straight. ESPN is currently taking in just under $9 billion a year.

Numbers show that only 6 percent of those surveyed would be willing to pay a projected $20 a month for ESPN, the WSJ’s projected fee required to make up for the number of folks who would drop ESPN if al a carte cable pricing is ever offered. Another nine percent were undecided, but 85 percent of those polled said they would not pay $20 a month for ESPN and its package of networks.

Here are the numbers that I am using from a Business Insider story.

The future looks scary for ESPN.

There’s the slow leak; the loss of millions of cord-cutting folks who are just not getting cable and are watching things on tablets and Netflix and what have you.

There’s the potential disaster that is al a carte cable pricing, which would be the iceberg to the Titantic of sports coverage. (That said, ESPN’s lobbying efforts – along with those of various professional sports leagues and conferences – make this something that will not be happening in the near future.) This one is arguably the most dangerous because it would affect advertising rates and even make parent company Disney aware that some operational cost losses would be more painful with far fewer subscribers. (Meaning: Disney realizes that free commercials on its own sports network for ABC programming or “Star Wars” or what have you has value even if ESPN is not the cash cow it has been. But too many operational cost losses eventually just become losses, and with strikingly fewer eye balls if/when the al a carte movement happens, those losses are even more stark.)

There’s also the rising costs of coverage rights. ESPN’s golden days are likely now or in the previous decade. The number of people it employees will go no where but down, and for a lot of us in the media business, that’s a scary thing. (Note: This really has no effect on ESPN 105.1 The Zone here in down. Brewer Media owns the radio station and pays ESPN for the naming rights and the programming.)

As for the ripple effects on the schools and the power college programs, that will be interesting. As to will be the effects of the professional leagues, which in some ways are more dependent on the ESPN money.

Your right that ticket prices would certainly escalate, but if ESPN bottomed out wouldn’t the bigger increase come from the pro teams? Most of your college powerhouses have no problem calling very wealthy donors for help when needed. Pro teams can’t do that, and their annual expenditures are in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Also, even if ESPN hit a worst-case scenario 10 years from now and it goes al a carte. That means ESPN’s reach would go from roughly 92 million right now (and those people are paying $6 a month) to at best according the WSJ survey, 17 million paying $20 a month. That also crushes what you can charge advertisers.

That doomsday scenario is also one of the reasons ventures like the NFL Network and SEC Network, etc., are of such importance. In some ways, those potential avenues protect the leagues if the middle man that is ESPN collapses.

But your point is well-noted and we feel a point of about every other meeting in Bristol these days.

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From Chas

Question for Friday: How would you seed this final four of athlete names: Bernard King, Queen Alford, Tayshaun Prince and Admiral Schofield?

Chas –

As always, thanks for the insight and tangent. We love tangents.

Of your final four, we believe Bernard King – the basketball version of Bo Jackson in regard to the “what could have been if not for the injuries” conundrum – stands tall. (That said, Tayshaun Prince has fashioned a 14-year NBA career, scoring more than 11 points per game over that time and always being a guy that seems to be fun to play with. Bill Simmons has a great way of describing role players in the NBA. There are guys who have one elite skill – a shooter like JJ Reddick, a rebounder like Tristan Thompson, et al. – the rest he views as what they bring to the table or what they take off the table. Prince always brought more to the table than he took. He guarded. He rebounded. He was reliable and efficient.)

But that got us thinking about sports royalty. (And this has even more relevance since today is Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday. “You ain’t never met no Martin Luther the King.”)

Rushmore of Kings: Billie Jean King, Bernard King, King and his Court (the old softball barnstormer) and of course “The King” Richard Petty. (Yes, Petty gets first dibs on the ‘King’ nickname. Sorry LeBron, King Felix and King Kong Bundy.)

Rushmore of the Kings court: Bobby Knight, Duke Snider, Prince Fielder and Queen’s “We are the Champions.”

If we go military with the Admiral, we’d start with Gen. Neyland, then go David “The Admiral” Robinson, Derek Jeter as the Captain and probably “Major League” – “Are you saying Jesus Christ can’t hit the curve ball?”

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From JMC

Jay,

Now that college football season is completely over, let’s recap some stuff.

What’s your take on Jumo’s report that ESPN refunded sponsors due to low ratings? I don’t have a dog in the hunt but part of me would laugh on the account it’s karma on certain factors too numerous to name.

After five in a row, what are the chances of NDSU moving up to a fat-cat five conference? Let’s face it, if I was their AD I would hold out on the move to FBS unless I was GUARANTIED the invite to be in one of the fat-cat five so they are GUARANTEED to play for the championship vs. the medocrity that is the Sunbelt, C-USA, that will be forever linked with the Chicken Feathers Up Your Butt Dot Com Bowl to be played at at 3:00 PM on a Thursday afternoon exclusively on ESPNU like Georgia Southern(enough shade there?)

Finally, lets be honest, we barely held our own against Jax State and they got shellacked by the Fargo which meant this was not meant to be had we (the Mocs) made the Championship. That said, with no championship, is Jacob destined to Arena football purgatory like his forebears (Cos and BJ) because St. Jerry obviously doesn’t want him near his Death Star over on I-30.

JMC –

Jomo’s reference that ESPN returned $20 million to advertisers was 100 percent true. It’s part of the dangerous ice patch the network is on, as we discussed above.

There’s no way North Dakota State gets an invite into any of the big five conferences. None. There historic success in the FCS does not equate to any type of value on that scale for the entire sports program. If the Big Five look to expand, schools like Houston or Notre Dame or BYU will get a call and have their interest measured.

In truth, North Dakota State should stay where it is and enjoy the spoils of its success. At least for the foreseeable future.

There are two paths this takes over the long haul: Either the cash spigot stays flowing and teams that can will move into the FBS in football and try to find accompanying conference affiliation. (That would require a more sharing approach from the Big 5 conferences in the future, and we know they are not exactly known for their sharing tendencies.)

The other path would be trivialization of the next five leagues in football and the then schools like Georgia Southern and App State and fill in the blank will be looking for foes and ways to maximize their earning power. If the big five split off in football, the rest of Division I – the next five leagues and the FCS – will have to work together to find as many ways possible to monetize football.

As for the professional future of Jacob Huesman, he’s a much better athlete than B.J. Coleman was and he’s much bigger than Cos. We could see Jacob play a number of different positions for an NFL club.

He’s strong enough – and big enough – to be a fullback/H-back type player. He’s certainly capable to be the third-string/athletic quarterback in a system that requires a fair amount of QB runs (and puts its QB in harm’s way). He’s certainly not shy about contact, so he’d be willing to play special teams.

The scouting process will be very important for Jacob, especially in the running drills. Dude very well could run a sub-4.6 40 and that will generate some buzz. He may end up in the Arena League, but if we had to guess the long-term football answer for him will be getting into the family business (i.e. coaching).

That said, UTC fans everywhere should tip their cap and thank Jacob the next time you see him.

If the NFL was his ultimate goal in all of this, he would have been better served taking one of his handful of FBS offers and changing positions – at 6-2, 220-plus with a 4.6ish 40 he would be a very highly regarded safety – five years ago.

He made his decision and played for his dad – a cherished memory the two of them will share forever – and became the most accomplished and greets college football player in UTC’s history.

And helped lead the transformation of a program a decade ago was among the worst in the country to one that is understandably ‘disappointed’ in finishing No. 8 in the final FBS poll.

We’ll be the first to say: Well done Jacob Huesman. Thanks for all your effort.