Last week was fun. Lots of winners. Lots of entertainment.
So what did we learn? Not much, but we have some favorites, and if you have followed the Fab 4 (plus 1) picks since they started in 2011, well, you know we are loyal to a fault.
Some of our early favorites and trends that have consistently delivered entertainment: All five Duke games have been under the total; Baylor has gone over the total in all four of its games; Navy is 4-0 overall and 4-0 against the spread.
What we know now heading into the midway point of the season:
Jay GreesonOhio State is not as good as we expected, but that’s OK in the Big Ten.
Auburn is nowhere near as good as we expected, and that gets exploited in the SEC.
The craziness of the Pac-12 – where California and Utah play in Saturday’s biggest game (read that again) – makes for a wild second half.
Notre Dame-Navy on Saturday is a legit College Football Playoff elimination game. Notre Dame could wiggle back into the conversation with one loss. Navy is unbeaten and likely will be a favorite in every game after this one for the rest of the season. This would be a monster win on its ledger that could get an unbeaten Navy into the Big Six bowls.
Now for the things we think we know. To the picks.
Georgia minus-2.5 at Tennessee. Georgia still is in the mix for the college final four despite the beatdown the Bulldogs took from Alabama. Yes, the last four games between UT and UGA were one-possession games. But this line is too low because we are prone to overreaction in the world of entertainment hunting. Grayson Lambert was neutered against Alabama, but this Tennessee defense does not generate anywhere near the pressure Alabama does. Plus, if the Volunteers can’t slow Arkansas, how are they going to keep Nick Chubb in check?
Duke-Army under 49. Duke defensively is very sound, and the offense is deliberate. Army is a similar bunch. Duke has been consistent, and finding a consistent team in the world of entertainment is the best of things.
Michigan-Northwestern over 35. OK, one of our entertainment rules: When a number looks too good to be true, it normally is. Take last week, when Baylor-Texas Tech had a record-setting over/under of 90. Of course it went over. Michigan and Northwestern are the top two scoring defenses in the country, and the teams played to a tight-fisted 12-10 outcome last year. Still, 35 points? Thirty-five? It’s simply too low.
Florida-Missouri under 40. Florida’s defense is stout. Missouri’s offense is limited. Florida’s offense is young. Missouri’s defense is better than most know. This one feels like 17-14.
Utah-California over 60. One team has the best quarterback in the country. The other is ranked in the top five and has the best kicking game in the country. This game feels like it will be played in the 30s. The easy math – even for us Auburn graduates – means a game played in the 30s goes over 60.
UConn plus-3 over Central Florida. Remember when UConn coach Bob Diaco said he was starting “The Civil Conflict” rivalry with Central Florida and UCF coach George O’Leary, when asked about it, said, “What?” Good times. We also remember when Central Florida was sneaky good. The Knights are 0-5 – straight up and against the spread, by the way – with home losses to Florida International and Furman. Three points is a gift, especially when UConn has dominated The Civil Conflict.
Last week against the spread: 5-1 (83.3 percent)
This season against the spread: 18-10 (64.3 percent)
*****
SEC items of interest
1. Tennessee-Georgia in the which-coach-can’t-afford-to-lose-more bowl. Tennessee fans are wondering if Butch Jones can contend in the best conference in the country. Georgia fans are wondering if Mark Richt ever will win another big game. The questions are fair and frustrating. It amps the pressure on each team in a rivalry, and that magnifies how much a team is willing to sacrifice for its head coach. That may be the most interesting thing from this game: How much are the Vols willing to put on the line for Jones?
2. Is Alabama the best team in the country? The Alabama team that showed up last Saturday in Athens with a bad attitude and a badder defensive front was awesome in its awesomeness. That performance sets the bar not only for the Crimson Tide the rest of the way, but for any College Football Playoff contender. Yes, it was that good – so good, in fact, that it generated the Nick Saban news conference meltdown Monday.
3. Will Auburn lose during its off week? Maybe we should ask if the Tigers will lose again. Auburn – on the short list of the most disappointing teams in the country – dismissed receiver Duke Williams, who was their biggest playmaker. How far have the Tigers fallen? Next Thursday’s date at Kentucky looks like a must-win for Auburn to get to a bowl game.
4. South Carolina in a home game at LSU. The floods of the Carolinas forced the powers that be to move this game to Baton Rouge. LSU will donate the profits of this game – minus expenses – back to South Carolina. That said, the special feeling that surrounds these Tigers – especially star running back Leonard Fournette – continues.
5. Florida takes its Cinderella story on the road. The Gators continue to surprise. Be it fourth-quarter magic against Tennessee or the smackdown they dropped on Ole Miss, the Gators are rolling. Now they make the long trip to Missouri with a stubborn defense and a young quarterback feeling his oats. Sorry, Tennessee fans, but the SEC is more fun when the Gators are good.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.