Across deep-red Northwest Georgia, there were consistent trends in support for Republican candidates in this month’s general election — trends that could provide guidance to political consultants getting ready for the Dec. 6 runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat.
Gov. Brian Kemp and U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Northwest Georgia, both won, and Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker advanced to the runoff.
But Walker underperformed Kemp statewide and in the seven reliably Republican counties of Northwest Georgia, and Greene received less solid support in the seven counties than either statewide candidate.
Kemp received 203,025 more votes than the former University of Georgia football star on the statewide ballot, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office.
Neither Walker nor incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock received a majority of the vote, so the Dec. 6 runoff will decide the race. Statewide, Warnock received 49.42% of the vote, according to the Secretary of State’s Office, while Walker received 48.52%.
Kemp beat returning Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams by 7.5 percentage points, a decisive victory compared to his 1.4 points over Abrams in 2018.
“It’s tough beating an incumbent,” Kemp said in Nov. 9 Fox News interview. He credited his win to a campaign that put “hard-working Georgians first” and focused on issues like high inflation, high gas prices, cutting taxes and a porous southern border.
Campaign staff for Kemp offered the Fox News video interview when asked for a comment about the disparity between Kemp’s and Walker’s outcomes in the midterm election.
Kemp outpaced Walker by about 5 percentage points in the seven Northwest Georgia counties, with Chattooga County having the largest difference at 5.9 points, and Dade and Murray tied for the smallest at 4.3 points.
Greene lagged about 1 percentage point behind Walker in their respective wins in the seven Northwest Georgia counties. The largest difference was 2.8 points in Whitfield County.
Greene and Walker are both stalwart supporters of former President Donald Trump, while Kemp famously resisted attempts by Trump to overturn election results in Georgia based on election fraud claims rejected by his own administration, judges he appointed, election officials, the Electoral College and Congress.
In an election day interview outside the Lakeview voting precinct in Rossville, Andrew Edwards explained his decision to not vote for all the Republicans on the 2022 General Election ballot.
Kemp did a good job standing up to Trump, a stance Edwards said earned his vote, even though he usually votes for Democrats.
Edwards said he didn’t vote for Walker because he didn’t think he was “up to the task,” and Greene didn’t earn Edwards’ vote because, he said, Greene wasn’t focused on the people in her district.
(READ MORE: Marjorie Taylor Greene wins re-election in Republican-dominated Northwest Georgia)
It can be difficult to turn out voters in a stand-alone runoff election, said Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political science professor, but campaigns have a lot of data from the midterms to help with that effort. Campaigns can also identify and target likely supporters who didn’t turn out for the midterm, he said.
“Again, there will be a drop-off, a pretty substantial drop-off,” Bullock said in a phone interview, “because this (the runoff) is the only thing that’s going to be on the ballot.”
Republican voters who aren’t strong supporters of Walker but wanted to help the GOP win the Senate will also be less likely to vote, he said, because a Democratic majority in the Senate has already been decided.
Bullock said that even the 2021 runoff that sent Warnock and Sen. Jon Ossoff to the Senate — and secured a Democratic majority in that chamber — saw a drop-off compared to the presidential election of 2020.
There wasn’t much of a relationship between the Kemp and Walker campaigns in the run-up to the midterms, Bullock said. During the Republican gubernatorial primary in May, Walker refused to say if he voted for Kemp or his Donald Trump-backed primary challenger, David Perdue, Bullock said.
Kemp campaigned with Walker for the first time Saturday in suburban Atlanta, but Bullock said it’s hard to transfer support from one candidate to another.
“That’s another thing that will come into play — there’s not going to be any Kemp coattails to help Walker along,” Bullock said. “Undoubtedly, there were people who turned out because they really wanted to support Brian Kemp, and once they were there, they voted Republican (for Walker).”
Kemp campaign’s benefited from pointing to his achievements in office, Bullock said, like the economy and keeping the state open during the pandemic. As a challenger to an incumbent, Walker had no political record to promote and had to be aggressive and “go after” Warnock’s performance, Bullock said.
(READ MORE: Sen. Raphael Warnock focuses on health care in Dalton, Georgia campaign stop)
A request for comment from the Walker campaign wasn’t returned, but Walker was asked about assistance from the Kemp campaign in an interview on Fox News published Monday.
“I feel great about Gov. Kemp and his advisers. Gov. Kemp and I, we’re going to work together,” Walker said. “When I get to the Senate, I’m going to work with him on the federal level, and he’s going to work on the state level.”
Any help Kemp could give him would be appreciated because this seat is important, Walker said. Walker also discussed his runoff strategy.
Walker said he was going to attract libertarian voters by focusing on “pocketbook issues.”
Walker said he got more Black votes than people expected but added he planned to focus on that demographic in his runoff campaign. Walker said Americans need to stop separating people by race.
“I think we got to bring people together,” Walker said, a point he made frequently on the campaign trail. “I’m going to work for everybody. I want everyone to have a quality of life, I want everyone to have a quality education, I want everyone to have that American dream I’ve had.”
Mike Cameron, a representative for District 1 in the Georgia state House, said he couldn’t explain the disparity between support for Kemp, Walker and Greene.
Greene has had strong support in the area, Cameron said, and made appearances in both Dade and Walker Counties during her campaign.
“I don’t know Trump’s effect on the vote is either. He’s usually pretty popular up here, and Marjorie (Taylor Greene) is too,” Cameron said.
Kemp received a lot of pressure for his decisions during the pandemic, but Cameron said the governor “really came through” as governor — and also as a candidate for re-election.
“He had a great organization, and he worked tirelessly,” Cameron said. “You can’t ask for a better candidate.”
Kemp’s campaign is good with analytics, Cameron said, so he said state and federal party elections workers will be focusing on areas where Walker needs support.
Contact Andrew Wilkins at awilkins@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6659. Follow him on Twitter @tweetatwilkins.
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NoneA comparison of votes by county
Catoosa County
Kemp – 20,009 votes – 81.66%
Walker – 18,562 votes – 76.07%
Greene – 18,042 votes – 74.68%
Chattooga County
Kemp – 6,471 votes – 83.91%
Walker – 5,977 votes – 78.00%
Greene – 5,890 – 77.27%
Dade County
Kemp – 4,969 votes – 85.03%
Walker – 4,698 votes – 80.71%
Greene – 4,577 votes – 79.78%
Gordon County
Kemp – 15,986 – 84.64%
Walker – 14,943 votes – 79.62%
Greene – 14,556 votes – 78.81%
Murray County
Kemp – 10,290 – 89.22%
Walker – 9,737 – 84.90%
Greene – 9,520 votes – 83.82%
Walker County
Kemp – 18,414 votes – 83.26%
Walker – 17,064 votes – 77.66%
Greene – 16,551 votes – 76.24%
Whitfield County
Kemp – 20,919 votes – 77.44%
Walker – 19,387 votes – 72.10%
Greene – 18,503 votes – 69.93%