Fab 4
OK, we’re through the song-and-dance that was the first three weeks of money games and the occasional marquee match-up.
We have played a few conference games, and some teams still have not been truly tested. That’s on us to weigh strengths and compare difficulties.
We’re up for it. But we also have some key stat averages halfway through the season, and you will notice a trend today. Teams that can run facing teams that can’t stop the run get the Fab 4 chef’s kiss.
Mini-Rushmore of fictional Chefs has to be the Swedish Chef from the Muppets, Chef from “South Park,” The Soup Nazi and Chef Boyardee — and yes, I was a fat, Fat, FAT lad growing up because a) my mom brought me McDonald’s or KFC for a hot lunch each day (spoiled, check, mom not much of a cook, double check) and at least 10,000 cans of Chef B’s Beef Ravioli. Thoughts?
Like Roy Clark reminding us that he never picked cotton, let’s do some real pickin’ gang.
Liberty minus-20.5 over Sam Houston State. Thursday night, at home, and a high-powered Liberty offense, which is second in the nation in rushing yards per game against a winless SHSU team making the transition to FBS. Hmmmmmmm. Also know that SHSU is 111th of the 133 FBS teams in rushing yards allowed at right at 185 per game. (Side note: For comparable numbers, all of our team stats in today’a Fab 4 are from FBS vs. FBS games. Deal? Deal.) So even when Liberty, Liberty, Liberty is trying to turn that 31-3 halftime lead into a snoozefest, they are going to move the football. I am equally as tempted on Liberty minus-10 (FanDuel) in the first half since the Flames are fifth nationally by averaging 23.8 points per game before the bands take the field. (SHSU is 122nd nationally averaging 7.0 first-half points.) Yeah, let’s add a double up on the Flames, first half and game.
Miami-Georgia Tech over 57. And this one could get ugly quickly considering Tech is even worse against the run than Sam Houston is, and he’s only one guy. Miami is lighting folks up right now — that’s a top-10 offense, averaging more than 500 yards — and more importantly, 6.4 yards per carry. Georgia Tech, conversely is the 11th-worst team in the country, allowing 5.5 yards per running play against same-level foes. Miami may get to this total on its own friends.
LSU-Missouri over 64. Forget the numbers for a second. LSU’s offense is first class. Numerically and with the eye test. Even Ray Charles sees it. LSU’s defense is well, last class. Numerically and with the smell test. Average LSU score against FBS teams, 37.0-363. Hmmmm, even my Auburn math says that’s more than 64. Also of note, both of these defenses rank outside the top-100 nationally in passing yards allowed against FBS foes.
Arkansas-Ole Miss over 63. Stop if you’ve heard this before, but this a meeting of two explosive offenses with multi-talented quarterbacks against two SEC defenses that are really cute when they try to tackle people.
Alabama minus-1.5 over Texas A&M. Yep, Kyle Field will be rocking, but Alabama’s players are used to being every foe’s Super Bowl. Yes, Max Johnson has been a God send for A&M OC Bobby Petrino. And yes, the Aggies’ multi-million-dollar NIL payroll is likely even greater than Bama’s multi-million-dollar NIL payroll. But simply put there have to be three or four gambling maxims. If a line looks too good to be true it almost assuredly is and someone somewhere knows something. (I forgot that one last night.) Ride ’em till they buck ya. And, maybe most importantly off all, if you get the chance to back Nick Saban pretty much just to win against a former assistant you simply have to do it.
USC-Arizona over 71. Yep, riding them till they buck us.
Last week: 3-3 against the spread (50%)
This season: 18-13-3 against the spread (58.1%)
MLB playoffs
Well, the first round was quick.
Four wildcard series, four sweeps. But the most pressing issue for the folks around these parts who have followed the Braves since those February freezers of spring training is clear.
These Phillies are locked in, and that ballpark was rocking last night when the outcome was clear after Bryson Stott’s grand slam.
Plus, the quickness of the Phillies’ sweep of Miami means that they will get to reset their rotation pretty quickly.
It also means that Game 1 — which almost will assuredly pit Braves ace flamethrower Spencer Strider against crafty Philly left Ranger Suarez — is simply put, a must-win game for the Braves.
A must-win.
It’s in Atlanta. The memories of the Phillies roll this time and this round over Atlanta are real. And this is clearly the best pitching edge the Braves will have throughout the series, since Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola likely get the ball in games 2 and 3 in the five-game set.
And if the Braves lose Game 1 Saturday, well, the funnest Braves season — and the best Braves offense — I can recall will assuredly be in deep, Deep, DEEP trouble.
Golf drama
Man, the dramatics involved in golf over the last several months has been head-spinning, right?
And the way some of these superstars are all in their feels is staggering. Heck, while I think Brooks Koepka can be insufferable, it’s hard to find fault in his assessment that all of his US Ryder Cup teammates are a bunch of “country club kids.”
And, while most professional golfers have to be country club kids in this day and age, we all know what Brooks meant and how he meant it.
Side question for the group: Despite all diatribes to the contrary, that U.S. room was more divided than a family suffering through a bitter divorce, right? That U.S. team was more talented than the Euros, and they got worked.
Now comes another missive from golf writer Alan Shipnuck, who is releasing “LIV and Let Die: The inside story of the war between the PGA Tour and LIV golf” which will be released later this month.
Shipnuck you recall did the unauthorized biography on Phil Mickelson that broke the news that Lefty was going to work for those “scary mother (bleepers)” on LIV.
And when the excerpt hit social media on Wednesday, Justin Thomas took the chance to speak up and call Shipnuck out after a particularly damning passage bashing Rory McIlroy was released.
Here’s what JT wrote: “I’d like to speak on behalf of a lot of Tour players and say we’re sick of @AlanShipnuck doing what he does. Bring positivity and good stories to help grow the game of golf, not try and make money bashing guys, earning zero trust, with a lot of incorrect information. Ridiculous”
C’mon JT, this is not your high school newspaper. Anyone who wants puff pieces can get all they want at PGATour.com — and few other windbags like Brandel and the crew at The Golf Channel — but that’s not journalism.
Now if you want to note the “incorrect information” that’s a different kettle of fish. But, man, JT, I expected more from a varsity letterman.
As for some of the other takeaways from the excerpt, well, PGA commish Jay Monahan handled his even worse than we knew. He got multiple letters from Saudi leadership looking to form a bond as far back as 2021, and he dismissed the first overture and ignored the second letter.
And Tiger swings as big a stick behind the scenes as he did on the grandest stages at the height of his powers.
This and that
— Speaking of picks, here’s Paschall, because you know the rules.
— Prayers up for LSU safety Greg Brooks Jr., who has been diagnosed with brain cancer. Cancer is a mother bleeper.
— Good luck Lexi Thompson, who will become only the seventh female player to enter a men’s PGA event. Babe Didrickson Zaharias was the first in the 1940s and remains the lone female player to make the cut. If you like her chances in the event that starts a week from today, you can find plus-2500 on Thompson making the cut. Missing the cut is minus-10000, which means you have to bet 10K to win $100.
— Jay’s Plays went 4-1 — losing JSU vs. MTSU and hitting Arizona-Milwaukee under 3.5 in the first 5; Philly minus-0.5 in the first five and minus-1.5 for the game; and NMSU covering the 6 — made a tidy 3.25 units Wednesday. How was your day?
— Speaking of plays, and I’ll have more in my email newsletter later today, but a) give me all the Commanders you can tonight and b) we are set to cut another podcast with Brian Edwards today, so there’s that.
Today’s questions
So, it’s Thursday — and AGT (anything goes Thursday) as the kids call it — so will go with this anytime question.
Simone Biles, gymnastics GOAT? Discuss.
Which pick above is your fav? Which is your least favorite?
Jay Monahan or Mark Emmert, who was worse at his seven-figure gig?
As for today, Oct. 5, let’s review.
Kate Winslet is 48 today. I’m a fan. Even if she selfishly let Jack drown in that big boat movie.
Big day in hockey births — Mario Lemieux and Patrick Roy turned 58 today.
Barry Switzer is 86 today.
Rushmore of football coaches who had the best college AND NFL careers. Go, and remember the mailbag.