The United States is strongly favored to win the most overall medals at the Paris Olympics, which open in a month.
The big question is this: Will the Americans also top the tally for gold medals in a close race with China?
The U.S. is projected to win 123 medals (37 gold, 34 silver, 52 bronze), while China is forecast to win 87 (36 gold, 29 silver, 22 bronze), based on a forecast by Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, which supplies statistical analysis for sports leagues around the world. The group also tracks major competitions involving Olympic sports leading up to the Games.
The United States and China finished 1-2 in both categories at the most recent Summer Olympics, the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Games in 2021.
Gracenote’s ranking is based on overall medals won, although others focus the rankings on gold totals. The International Olympic Committee does not compile rankings, leaving this to nations and local media.
This would be the eighth straight time the U.S. has won the most overall medals in the Summer Games. At the 1992 Barcelona Olympics, the leader for total medals was the “Unified” team of athletes from the former Soviet Union, which had just broken up as a sovereign state.
The last time the U.S. did not have the most gold medals at the Summer Games was in the 2008 Beijing Olympics, when China invested heavily and received dividends on its home soil.
Predicted to be next in line with overall and gold totals for Paris are Britain (62 overall, 14 gold), France (56, 29), Australia (48, 13), Japan (46, 12), Italy (46, 11), Germany (37, 10), the Netherlands (34, 17) and South Korea (29, 8).
The next 10 are Hungary (23, 7), Canada (20, 6), Spain (18, 4), Ukraine (17, 2), Brazil (16, 7), New Zealand (16, 4), Poland (15, 5), Denmark (14, 5), Turkey (14, 4), and Ethiopia (13, 2).
After that, 21 through 30 are Sweden (12, 6), Georgia (12, 3), Serbia (11, 5), Belgium (11, 3), Uzbekistan (11, 3), Kazakhstan (10, 2), Iran (9, 4), Croatia (9, 3), Romania (9, 2) and Ireland (9, 2).
History has shown that host nations always get a bump in medals, and France is expected to get a big one and increase its overall total from 33 in Tokyo. France is forecast to nearly triple its gold medal output from Tokyo, where host Japan picked up a record haul.
Performing at home is an advantage partly because host nations invest more heavily in training athletes. Then, of course, there are adoring home crowds and the familiar surroundings.
The unknown factor this time around is the presence of Russian athletes and, to a lesser extent, Belarusian athletes. They have been absent from most international competitions over the past two years because of the war in Ukraine. It’s still unclear how many will participate at the Paris Games, and their influence is difficult to factor into the forecast, which Gracenote acknowledged.