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Fab 4 picks
Man, I pick more than Spalding Smails. More picks than Rick Mahorn. And I am sure my editor wants me to make some Quick Pix.
See what I did there, Spy?
The 5-at-10 has been built on a few staples. Let’s review.
> Great comments and — most of the time — an embrace of the decent philosophy of agreeing to disagree.
> Contests that started with the Bowling for Bowls of Bowl Game Success, Bowler Optional and then in spring 2011, Masterfully Mastering the Masters Challenge. We have expanded since and had dozens of folks win free stuff. (Side question for the group: Any of you folks multiple winners? If so, reach out and we’ll tip the visor Friday.)
> The Fab 4 picks.
The Fab 4 debuted in the fall of 2011, and eventually helped hatch Jay’s Plays (go to this link and scroll down to the Plays of the Day space to sign up; like the beers at the Delta House, don’t cost nuttin’).
All of this leads us back to the Fab 4, and with only a handful of college games this weekend, we extended the origin tale a smidge. So it goes.
Let’s be Fabulous.
Georgia Tech plus-11.5 against FSU. So, I got on this over the summer — and shared that on the “Bets and Ballgames” podcast with Brian Edwards — at Tech plus-14. I love that one, but still like a Tech team that returns nine offensive starters from a team that led the ACC in rushing a year ago. FSU lost 15 starters from a year ago — nine were drafted — and we saw how the second-unit looked in the bowl game. All the portal big shots the ‘Noles brought in have skills, but a double-digit spread (especially two TDs) could make more sense in week 5 in the Panhandle than in week 0 in Dublin, Ireland.
Fab 4 in 2023: 67-46-2 (59.3%)
Fab 4 bowl picks last season: 17-12 (58.6%)
(The numbers have been lost, but Vader, JTC and some of the longtime followers of the picks, it’s fair to put my career % in the Fab 4 around 58%, no? I can only remember one sub-.500 year, and that was 2022.)
Clarity, kinda
There is little clarity in college football right now.
None on the future.
None in terms of rules enforcement. (Side note: Kirk Ferentz of Iowa got a one-game suspension for improper contacts with a recruit. The Iowa 2023 offensive staff should get a 10-year suspension for malfeasance.)
None on regulating the portal or the NIL. And when Mike Gundy is answering questions on ESPN about regrowing the mullet and then sounds like the most-informed and forward-thinking voice on NIL, well, what the H-E-Double Hockey sticks are the big-brained folks in NCAA headquarters doing during the day? Three-hour lunches at Buffalo Wild Wings, anyone?
But one of my biggest questions that I have had no luck finding the answer to has been the SEC tiebreakers for the two teams to get to Atlanta this December.
Without divisions — a whole other issue since Missouri’s most valued asset this side of Brady Cook is its schedule — there will assuredly be ties between teams who have not played.
And it’s so simple and easy a caveman — with an MBA, a law degree and 10-years in contract negotiations — could figure it out.
How simple is it? Well the SEC announced it officially on Wednesday, and it only took 29 pages. Seriously.
Here are the six criteria, in order:
> Head-to-head;
> Record vs. common SEC opponents;
> Record against the highest team in the standings that each played, and if none move downward through other common foes;
> Cumulative SEC winning % of all SEC opponents for each tied team;
> “Capped relative scoring margin” vs. all SEC opponents. That’s a metric that compares a team’s points scored and allowed to the opponents’ average points scored and allowed, per an appendix from the league office.
> Random draw.
I will ask just three questions on an anything goes Thursday — AGT as the kids say — and am curious about your thoughts.
First, does anyone else need an aspirin? Man, I miss divisions.
Second, how in the name of TPS reports can anyone need 29 pages for six tie-breakers?
Finally, if you are truly only six-deep before “random draw” becomes the answer — even as far-fetched as the odds are of two teams tying through the first five — aren’t we asking the wrong questions?
Hall pass?
Got a little lengthy this morning. It happens.
Joey Votto retired, which begs the question: Joey Votto, Hall of Fame?
Most say yes, but I counter with my standard retort — if you ask if someone is a Hall of Famer and the answer is not an immediate yes, then I think it’s a no.
That said, in the long and storied history of the Red Legs, Votto is second all-time among Cincinnati players in OBP (.406), HR (356) and OPS (.906). He is a former NL MVP and a six-time All-Star.
Still, while his numbers are better in a matrix-driven era than say a Dale Murphy, was he ever considered one of the game’s five best players at any time in his career like Murphy? I say no.
Conversely, if Ted Simmons and Harold Baines are Hall of Famers, then Joey Votto is a dunk.
Thoughts?
This and that
› Broncos named Bo Nix their starter.
› Did not watch a single second of the DNC. I am truly sickened by this presidential race.
› Braves played. Braves lost. I am 100% here for the Orlando Arcia-Bryce Harper feud.
› Speaking of Fab 4 picks, here’s a look-ahead offering for full-blown week 1. Virginia Tech is salty, and according to the ESPN metrics, has the most offensive production returning of any team in college football. They are at Vandy next Saturday, and right now you can still find that game at VT minus-13 or so. Get that number because it will be north of the swing number of 14 closer to kickoff. And while I am very bullish on the Hokies — a sneaky dark horse to get to the ACC title game — this is also a pick against a Vandy team that is going to struggle against Power Four competition.
› Side note: How long will it take you to get used to Power Four rather than Power Five since the Pac-12 has Pac-ed up?
› Speaking of the SEC tie-breaker, a couple of things: First I am 100% giddy for a Lane Kiffin presser after a 49-10 win over, say, Arkansas, and they ask about the final TD in the final five minutes, and he grins and offers, “Capped relative scoring margin, guys.”
› You know the rules. Here’s Paschall on a young UT linebacker looking to put his stronger frame to violent use.
— Falcons signed CB A.J. Terrell to an $81 million contract. OK.
Today’s questions
Plenty AGT options above, but we’ll also add this one: Should the SEC go back to some form of divisions?
As for today, Aug. 22, let’s review:
Couple of MLB true Hall of Famers — Carl Yastrzemski and Paul Molitor — have birthdays today and are 85 and 68, respectively.
Speaking of true Hall of Famers, Bill Parcells is 83 today.
If we say “The Big Tuna” is a dunk for the Rushmore of best NFL nicknames for a head coach, what else are you going with?
Go and remember the mailbag.