LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The Kentucky Derby is always tough to win, with a huge field of stampeding horses on the track and 150,000 screaming fans in the stands among the chief challenges for the contenders and their jockeys.
Toss in rain that could turn the dirt at Churchill Downs into something resembling peanut butter, and it gets even trickier.
A field of 19 3-year-old thoroughbreds is set to run 1 1/4 miles there Saturday evening for a $3.1 million prize and the garland of red roses in the opening race of this year’s Triple Crown series. Mucking things up is a forecast of 65 degrees with a 90% chance of rain.
The post time is 6:57 p.m. for the 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby, with NBC televising the race for the 25th consecutive year.
The soggy weather isn’t just a bummer for those wanting the fairest of track conditions. The Kentucky Derby is also a big party and fashion show, and rain means pulling out ponchos — no umbrellas allowed — to protect the huge hats and floral dresses.
Thirteen of the race’s entrants, including early 3-1 favorite Journalism, have never raced on a wet track. Clods of flying mud hitting their faces could be a turnoff.
“I may go through three pairs of goggles,” said jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who will be aboard Burnham Square.
Six long shots have experience in the muck, with four winning races in those conditions. Coal Battle is 2-for-2, while Japan-based Luxor Cafe is 3-for-4. The others are Neoequos and American Promise, the latter trained by 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas.
The most recent Kentucky Derby run on a sloppy track was in 2019, when Country House won via a disqualification that had nothing to do with the weather. The last muddy track was in 1989, when Sunday Silence won.
Bob Baffert, a U.S. Racing Hall of Famer and the face of the sport, will go for a record-breaking seventh victory — doing so in his return to the Kentucky Derby after a three-year suspension from Churchill Downs. He’ll saddle Citizen Bull, last year’s 2-year-old champion.
The colt will break from the dreaded No. 1 post in the starting gate, leaving jockey Martin Garcia little choice but to get him to the front before the rest of the field comes over toward the rail, potentially cutting him off.
“We’re going to tell him to get out of there like he just robbed a bank,” Baffert said.
No horse has won from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986.
Baffert’s other horse, Rodriguez, was scratched Thursday with a bruised foot, moving Baeza into the field. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher’s only entry, Grande, was scratched Friday, also due to a foot injury. Baeza was the only horse on the also-eligible list, so there will be no replacement for Grande.
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen will try to snap an 0-for-26 losing streak in the “Run for the Roses” with a pair of 20-1 shots: Publisher and Tiztastic, who are next to each other in the starting gate.
Sovereignty, the early 5-1 second choice, won a race at Churchill Downs last fall. He’ll try to snap an 0-for-13 skid in the Kentucky Derby for Godolphin, the racing stable of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.
“I know he loves this track,” jockey Junior Alvarado said, “so I’m sitting on a good run with him now.”
Sandman, the early 6-1 third choice, is the most expensive horse in the field at $1.2 million. Conversely, 30-1 shot Chunk of Gold was bought for $2,500.
“There’s been a lot of expensive horses not pan out, and there’s been a lot of cheap ones that have panned out,” Chunk of Gold trainer Ethan West said. “It’s not like he’s a big, robust, grand-looking animal. He’s very good-looking, but he doesn’t look like Journalism, that’s for sure.”
Journalism looked the part of the favorite while training during a mostly rain-free week on the track.
“The history of the Derby is usually a pretty vibrant opening quarter-mile,” trainer Michael McCarthy said. “He’ll be part of that, probably just back off the speed.”
The Southern California-based colt’s mother’s name is Mopotism; co-owner Aron Wellman wanted a name ending in “ism,” so he took inspiration from his old gig as sports editor of the Beverly Hills High School newspaper.
“Now more than ever, in the climate that we’re living in, journalists and responsible journalism is so important,” he said. “It’s so poignant that a horse named Journalism is going to have all eyes on him.”
In a social media post, Grande owner Mike Repole expressed frustration about his horse being sidelined.
“Unfortunately, the vets have decided to scratch Grande,” he wrote on X. “He has been battling a slight cracked heel this week which has been improving.”
Repole said various diagnostic tests on Grande came back clean, including a PET scan requested by Kentucky state veterinarians. He said the colt had been “training and looking great” on the track all week.
“We were very confused with all the clean diagnostics and improvement all week, why they rushed to judgment to scratch today,” Repole wrote. “We are also shocked and confused why this decision was made now. We were given no real explanation why Grande was scratched 36 hours before the race.”
Repole, a billionaire from New York, has had this happen twice before at the Kentucky Derby, where he is 0-for-8. In 2011, Uncle Mo was scratched the day before the race because of a gastrointestinal infection. In 2023, Forte was scratched the morning of the race due to a bruised right front foot.
“We all love these horses and our number one concern is the safety and welfare of these amazing Thoroughbreds. That is, and should always be the priority,” Repole wrote. “With all the diagnostics we have taken, the great vets we use, and the experience of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, we are baffled and confused by what criteria vets are using to determine who scratches, who doesn’t and when…especially when every diagnostic tells us the horse is safe and sound.”