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Predictions, schedictions
We spend a lot of time from the NFL draft to that opening Thursday night breaking down rosters and coaching changes and divisional matchups and schedules and everything from Jerry Jones’ dedication to winning on Sundays or winning in the PR realm.
It’s the NFL’s hidden superpower — it has eliminated the offseason.
But the one topic we don’t ever mention — or if we do, it’s not nearly often enough– is that for all the hundreds of millions of dollars, the endless hours of preparation and the 55-gallon drums of sweat and blood spent, every year hinges on this unknowable:
“Can your team stay healthy?”
Ask Cincinnati, which is facing three months without Joe Burrow — my preseason MVP pick selection.
Ask Minnesota, which will host the Bengals with a QB2 and an RB2 this weekend.
Ask Washington, which broke the bank adding high-dollar pieces around second-year phenom QB1 Jayden Daniels after making the NFC title game last season.
Ask the Packers, who lost arguably their WR1 Jayden Reed to a broken collar bone. (Side note: I understand the origin, but social media news updates from Schefty and the ESPN crew on injuries — especially like Reed’s — could use a better tag than “Breaking,” don’t you think?)
Ask the 49ers, who are without QB1 for the next several weeks and TE1 for longer than that.
That’s more than 13% of the entire league with each of them holding serious playoff aspirations.
True, luck has always been part of sports. For Pete Rozelle’s sake, the greatest dynasty in the greatest team sport in North America has seen in the modern era was catapulted by a player who was picked 199th in the draft.
But is there any one unknown more critical than injuries?
Should we offer every preseason pick with “if they avoid injuries” because I contend the winner of the whole shebang more times than not is the healthiest team, not necessarily the best team.
Coaching the coaches
Brian Kelly showed his tuckus postgame after LSU’s sluggish 20-10 win.
A win’s a win, and having been in countless situations like Kelly chastising a reporter who asked a fair question about the LSU offense that totaled all of 13 points in the 20-10 W (the defense had a pick six), he crossed the line.
He has apologized — sort of — in the days that followed and said he could have handled it better.
Reporters don’t need your apology, coach. And we know that the postgame news conference is a) an emotional scenario, b) a way to speak to your alumni, c) a way to speak to your locker room and show support for your players.
Like so many other things in Kelly’s vocation, Lord Saban was pitch perfect in this moment. He also picked his spots.
Well, after Kelly showed his stripes, Dabo Swinney said, “Yeah, BK, hold my CoCola and watch how this is done.”
Swinney went seven full minutes about his 1-2 football team with a proposed first-round QB who could not score with a pocketful of hundreds and trunks full of beads at Mardi Gras.
“I don’t read it. … When it’s bad, I don’t read nothing.” (Side note: This is common claptrap. All coaches read it. Swinney said later about the haters and negative Nellys that he has a “long memory,” so he is well aware.)
But he was far from done, and he drops a masterclass on talking about this around the 29-minute mark of the hour-long chat with the media.
“If they are tired of winning, they can send me on their way because that’s all we’ve done is win.
“We’ve won this league eight out of the last 10 years. Is that not good? I’m just asking, is that good? I don’t know if that’s good or not. To win your league eight out of 10 years? To go to the playoffs seven out of 10 years, be in four national championships, win it twice? Yeah, we’re a little down right now. Take your shots. But I got a long memory, in case y’all don’t know. We’ll be all right. We’ll bounce back. … And I would just say, if you don’t believe in us because we’ve lost two games, you didn’t believe in us, anyway. So it don’t matter.”
Dabo’s demeanor was far more professional and less emotional than Kelly’s — and less attack-mode — and that’s in part because Dabo seems to be a better dude than Kelly.
But Swinney is going to have to make some adjustments to his way of doing things, especially about the portal.
And would anyone be surprised if Swinney did the Jay Wright or the Tony Bennett and in some ways the Nick Saban and just walked off because the game has changed so much over the last few years?
Thoughts?
“Er” months, part II
Almost every year, MLB starts cooking right about now.
Maybe here in the heart of Braves country, the heartless Braves have sucked the blood out of mid-September for most of us. I get it.
But the “er” months are here, and they are real and spectacular.
With two weeks left, here are five burning questions to be answered in the “er” months, and amazingly the Braves are among them.
1 Everyone knows the Brewers are the best team in baseball, right? At 92-59, Milwaukee has MLB’s best record and a staggering plus-180 run differential. Not Philly. Not L.A. Not either NYC bunch. The Brew Crew. Quick, name a Brewer not named Christian Yelich. No Spy, Gorman Thomas and Cecil Cooper are no longer playing.
2 Can L.A. flip the postseason switch? Dave Roberts better hope so, because the at-times sleepwalking Dodgers are up just two in the NL West with 11 games to play.
3 What is the dream scenario for MLB? I think the Phillies-Dodgers would be must-see TV, and hopefully it will be in the NLCS. Of course the powers-that-be want the Yankees to play until the end, but man, the show in Seattle is tons of fun, and Toronto is star-studded.
4 How crazy will the NL draw be? The percentages show that it’s all but certain the six playoff teams will be the Phillies and Mets from the East, the Brewers and Cubs from the Central and the Dodgers and Padres from the West. All six could get to the Series. God bless the “er” months.
5 Finally, and not playoff-related, will Brian Snitker do the right thing and walk-off into the sunset after almost half a century in the Braves organization? Considering the season of discontent in Atlanta, that would be the best possible outcome.
This and that
› On Tuesday we noted that the first reported hole-in-one happened on Sept. 16, 1869, by Tom Morris. Not sure if that was Old Tom Morris or Young Tom Morris — there is a difference — and noted that brother-of-the-show/Jay’s imaginary friend Spy was in the group in front of Tom. Here’s Spy’s reply from Tuesday afternoon: “Tom Morris played a mulligan. Shouldn’t have counted.” That said, Spy, did Old/Young Tom buy the rest of the players a pint? Which begs the question of why does the guy who makes the ace have to buy everyone else a post-round cocktail? Shouldn’t that be the other way around?
› The Big Dumper hit homers 55 and 56. Cal Raleigh is a monster.
› Speaking of MLB above, Plays had a great night Tuesday. We hit Brewers big and Cubs over the Pittsburgh Skenes, both at plus money. Elsewhere, our only unresolved preseason MLB future — the A’s over 71.5 wins — moved to the precipice. The formerly-Oakland bunch won their fifth straight game and are 71-80 with 11 games left. War Plays.
› Long-time “First Take” host Molly Qerim is leaving ESPN.
› Wowser, wanna guess how many folks watched the late-afternoon Chiefs-Eagles showdown? Try 33.8 million viewers, matching a Brady-Manning showdown back in the day for the most watched regular-season game since the league started measuring such things back in 1988.
› You know the rules. Here’s Paschall with a midweek report on Georgia and UT portal prize Chris Brazzell starting to shine.
Today’s questions
Which Way Wednesday starts this way:
› If you had to bet a meaningful amount of money on it, which NL team would you bet to make the World Series?
› Which word describes Brian Snitker’s time with the Braves best?
› Which coach would you rather play for, Brian Kelly or Dabo Swinney?
› Which NFL team not named the Bengals got the worst injury news from Week 2?
As for today, Sept. 17, let’s review:
› The U.S. Constitution was signed by the delegates at the Philadelphia Convention on this day in 1787. Spy, did they have snacks? Beverages?
› Hank Williams would have been 102 today. His liver would have been 204.
› Yikes, some modern-era GOATs blowing out candles today: Alex Ovechkin is 40. Phil Jackson is 80. Patrick Mahomes is 30.
› “M*A*S*H,” the TV show, debuts on CBS on this day in 1972.
Have we done a Rushmore of military-based TV shows? If not, go, and have a great Hump Day.