Morning. Or afternoon, depending on when you see this.
From the “Talks too much” studios, remember when we were the “7-Up stinks” studios? Yep, we’ve been doing this a while.
NFL power poll
There is very little intrigue left heading into week 17.
Your fantasy season is almost assuredly done. The NFC playoff roster is set, they just need to finalize the order. The AFC picture has one truly open spot: The Jets are in with a win or the Steelers are in with a win and a Jets’ loss. (Yes, the first of the 10-step scenario to get the Colts in the playoffs happened with Denver’s win Monday. Still, to call it a long shot is an insult to long shots.)
So the final week will be about playing for home field and staying healthy. (Mostly about staying healthy, though.)
Power five
1. Cardinals. The most complete team in the league is led by the league’s most underrated coach, at least by casual fans. Marks of great coaching: Overcoming injuries. Check. Making the most of your strengths. Check, as Arizona does a great job using its wide receiver depth and its playmakers in the secondary to dictate pace. Assembling a great staff. Double check. Bruce Arians has a great collection of coaches, including former Colts offensive guru Tom Moore by his side. As crazy as this sounds, your Arizona Cardinals are the Super Bowl favorites.
2. Panthers. Yes, it was only one loss. But it also was a blueprint loss of how to slow the MVP train that has been Cam Newton. Still, that defense is great, and subtract one amazing Julio jones Hail Mary and Carolina likely wins in Atlanta playing its worse game of the season. Side note: How awesome is Cam, athletically? We believe he would be a Pro Bowl at five different positions. Dude is 6-foot-5, 260 pounds and ran the 40 in the 4.5s at the combine. Put him at QB, tight end or wide out on offense and he is a force. As a pass-rusher or a power safety dude would be a star. Amazing.
3. Patriots. If we offered you New England or the field, you take the Patriots, right? Now know that one by one, the injured Patriots will start trickling back into the lineup, and we’d tend to agree that, while the Cardinals or the Panthers may be a better team, New England is the safest bet to get to the Super Bowl.
4. Broncos. Amazing defensive showing Monday night to top the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime. And yes, the Brock Osweiler-Peyton Manning storyline come playoff time will be the talk of the playoffs. And if the Broncos beat San Diego this week, they will secure a first-round bye to give Manning more time and everyone more opportunity to hear the discussion.
5. Chiefs. Shhhh, but Kansas City is quietly the hottest team in the NFL not in Arizona. And how about that Alex Smith? Dude just does things quietly and effectively, right? Well, in truth, Smith has been much better than that this year, and for his career. Smith’s stats this year: he’s 293-of-446 (65.7 percent) for 18 TDs and five picks; he leads the league in interception percentage in 1.1 per 100 throws. In his three years in Kansas City, Smith is completing 63.8 of his throws for 9,908 for 59 TDs and just 18 picks. And for the ultimate state, he’s 29-16 as a starter with the Chiefs. Impressed, right?
Powerless five
28. Dolphins. OK, if losing to the imploding and quarterback-less Colts was not bad enough, now the Dolphins have a defensive player’s wife going all-Twitter bombardier on quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Here are some of the shots Brent Grimes’ wife, Miko, fired: “I knew this QB stunk the minute we signed to this team but I tried to keep quiet so I didn’t discourage Bae from believing in his team.” “I should’ve known we gonna lose when I heard we didn’t complete a single pass in two minute drills this week against the practice squad defense.” And, “My Column: how many people does Ryan Tannehill have to get fired before you realize he’s the problem.” Well, OK, Miko, how do you really feel?(To be fair, Miko was picked up earlier this year for assaulting a police officer, though those charges were dropped. You stay classy Miami.)
29. Cowboys. Don’t give us injuries with these Cowboys, who trotted out former Boise State legend Kellen Moore in a 16-6 floater against the Bills last week. Every team in the league has handled injuries. Every single one. Some better than others, and all of them better than the Cowboys, who will have a top-10 draft pick and a healthy franchise quarterback in 2016. Here’s betting that Dallas figures out a way to add Derrick Henry to the mix next year, after Henry runs for 200-plus yards against Michigan State this weekend in Jerry World.
30. 49ers. This is how bad it is for the once-proud San Francisco bunch: The 49ers appear to be talking themselves into an idea that Blaine Gabbert could be the answer at quarterback. E-gad. If that’s the case, well, 49ers coach Jim Tomsula better figure out a way to do impressions or make those odd noises with your hand under your arm pit during press conferences next year, because this team will be dreadful.
31. Browns. Another week, another story about a party video of Johnny Manziel and another round of questions about his status as QB1 for the Browns. OK, let’s cover the basics before we offer a question. There are so many difficult things about being even a solid NFL quarterback. There’s the preparation. There’s the practice. There’s the poise. There’s the pressure. And that’s just in the P category. Despite all that, johnny Football still tries to make it harder on himself by not respecting the responsibility, the role and the opportunity. Add in all the distractions and all the things that are beyond anyone’s control and you understand why of all the people on the planet, there are really only 20 or so above-average or better NFL quarterbacks. Think about that percentage. There’s 7.3 billion people on Earth – and if you subtract females and only look in the U.S. since, well, the Pop Warner leagues in Uganda are a little under-funded – and there are more than 151 million American men. And we can only manage about two dozen quarterbacks we can trust. Forget the toughest job in sports or focusing on brain surgeons; quarterback may be the toughest job to do well in the world. That or president. And we feel pretty certain trump can’t do either. And with each growing controversy, we feel pretty certain Johnny Football can’t either.
32. Titans. Tennessee allowed 34 points to a Houston team led by Brandon Weeden. Read that again. Now if you are the Titans, you have two mandates this week: Under no circumstances does Marcus Mariota and his strained knee see the field and secondly, you have to find a way to lose to Indy. The No. 1 overall pick for Tennessee could be a chance to a) add a defensive difference-maker like Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa; b) add a much needed offensive line anchor, such as Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil or c) trade down and address arguably the worst roster in the league. What does this mean? Well, since it’s the Titans, they probably win Sunday by two touchdowns.
—
Fab 4 picks
Well, what could have been a highly entertaining second chapter of the bowl picks fluttered to a 4-4 stretch over the middle pack of college postseason picks.
So it goes.
But now the plate really gets full. It’s time for the Camellia to give way to the Rose, the Popeye’s to give way to the Chick-Fil-A, the Cactus to give way to the Citrus. It’s time for the main courses.
(Side note: If you are in the camp that there are too many bowl games, well, that’s OK. Turn the channel. Watch another sitcom flip the script on a familiar Christmas storyline. Or maybe another run of “Law & Order.” This year the bowl games have been fun to watch – if not always entertaining in all ways – and competitive for the most part. Also, the three 5-7 teams plucked to fill the bowl slots are 3-0 this postseason. So there’s that.)
Now, if the entertainment can only match the fun. On to round three of the picks, and yes, we went a little overboard.
Alabama minus-9.5 over Michigan State. All the reports out of Dallas have touched on how focused the Tide are. Heck, even Nick Saban has praised this team’s ethic and approach. (No word if Saban fainted after praising something, but we would not be surprised.) We have shared a few of our entertainment guidelines, but here’s one more: No one out-Alabamas Alabama. So lining it up and running off tackle and trying to get some play-action working simply doesn’t work against the Tide. What does Michigan State like to do? Yep, run off tackle and set up the play-action. Good luck with that Sparty.
Michigan-Florida under 40. First team to 17 wins. Truly the only way this one goes over is if the game goes to overtime.
Stanford minus-6.5 over Iowa. Ah, the Rose Bowl. The one bowl through the years that is the least affected by the bowl swings of motivation, because all Big Ten and Pac-12 teams start the season hoping to get here. The Cardinal are better at almost every position. This one feels like a bloodbath waiting to happen, no matter how good the Iowa feel-good story felt.
TCU even over Oregon. Buckle up. The over/under here is approaching 80, and with two of the more athletic quarterbacks in the country, that number seems fair. And maybe we are reaching on this one a little because we want to have a little extra entertainment on what figures to be the most entertaining game left. Here’s what we believe though: Senior quarterbacks like Trevone Boykin find ways to win games like these.
Mississippi State minus-6 over NC State. Speaking of experienced quarterbacks finding ways to walk into the sunset with success, that applies here with Dak Prescott, too. And as much as he has meant to the Bulldogs and to coach Dan Mullen, here’s believing that the entire MSU bunch wants to win this one for Dak more than most teams want to win the Belk Bowl.
Georgia-Penn State under 43. Did you know that Georgia’s defense is a top-10 group nationally? Did you know that Penn State has the nation’s sack leader? Did you know that NBC’s old-school “The More You Know” campaign was wildly successful. Where were we? Oh, yes, the Taxslayer Bowl. Another slugfest that screams 17-14. Taxslayer Bowl? Man the names of these things never disappoints. In fact, the we more we think about it, aren’t we all a little surprised that there’s not a “Trump 2016 Bowl” somewhere this postseason. It could have been sponsored by the NRA and think of the bowl swag
Ole Miss minus-7 over Oklahoma State. OK, kids, math lesson here. If Team A scored 43 points against the best defense in the country and Team Oklahoma State has allowed an average of more than 43 points over its last five games, what’s the baseline for points for Team A? We’d start at 43 and work up. Now, add the fact that Team A has a slew of draft-worthy juniors who may be playing their final game for Team A. Also, add in that this game is in the Sugar Bowl and the New Orleans will be overrun by Team A supporters. Sign us up for Team A (and buy the half). (OK, enough with the secrets: Team is Ole Miss. Here endeth the lesson.)
USC minus-3 over Wisconsin. The Badgers may be the most hollow nine-win team ever. Wisconsin was an underdog just once this year – getting 13 points in the opening 35-17 loss to Alabama – and still lost three games. The Badgers’ best win was a 10-point victory over Minnesota. The Gophers, not the Vikings.
LSU minus-7 over Texas Tech. Buy the half, of course, as insurance, but here’s a pretty meaningful stat when it comes to match-ups: Texas Tech has the third-worst rushing defense in the country, allowing 271.8 rushing yards per game; LSU has Leonard Fournette. How big is that mismatch? Well, Auburn’s rush defense allowed roughly 90 fewer yards per game than Texas Tech, and Fournette is still running through Auburn’s secondary. If we set the over/under on Fournette rushing yards at 220, we still like the over. Enjoy.
Auburn minus-3 over Memphis. Another chance to buy the half – yay insurance – and while Auburn has disappointed all year, and Memphis has overachieved, the coaching turmoil balances any momentum the Northern-most Tigers would bring to Birmingham. And then there’s the locale, which figures to have a decided Auburn lean. Yes, Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch is a future NFL first-rounder, but Auburn has the advantage athletically almost everywhere else. (Side note: In this Birmingham all-Tigers match-up, it seems appropriate to have a mini-Rushmore of Tigers. Tiger Woods is far left. Then there’s Tiger, the Brady Bunch’s loyal dog, Tony the Tiger – because he’s GRRRR-reat – and finally Tigger over those tigers that try to maul Maximus in “Gladiator” and Al Kaline.)
Round two of bowl picks against the spread: 5-3 (62.5 percent)
Total bowl picks against the spread: 6-7 (46.2 percent)
Regular season against the spread: 57-39 (59.4 percent)
Fab 4 picks all-time (since the start of the 2011 season) against the spread: 349-231-6 (60.2 percent)
—
Moving along
Yes, we know the first two were quiet lengthy.
So let’s pick up the pace.
Man, Rick Pitino’s weekend is getting worse by the day. Here’s another video of him throwing the one-finger salute to the Rupp Arena crowdhttp://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25427230/rick-pitino-denies-flipping-off-fans-after-louisvilles-loss-at-kentucky.
In that story, there are more details about his decision to skip the postgame news conference and send in assistant Fred Willard.
His story – about how emotional it is for him to return to Rupp – comes across as complete crap.
Dude you are getting millions of bucks to do exactly that. And you send in your players and minions to speak for you. Bush league.
As for the middle finger, well, whatever, but Pitino denied doing it multiple times, and well, maybe he’ll just let one of his staff handle the truth down the road.
—
This and that
– Steph Curry is good at hoops. Dude dropped a triple double Monday. Yep, another day at the office.
– Congrats to Navy, which capped an 11-win season with a victory over Pitt in the Military Bowl. It also was the final game for Midshipmen DC, former UTC head coach and all-around good dude Buddy Green. Enjoy the retirement sir.
– Fun story here http://espn.go.com/espnw/athletes-life/article/14428947/why-florida-state-most-popular-football-player-sitting-one-out about an FSU sorority flag football star. Good stuff.
—
Today’s question
First, before you ask, we will have bowl standings up tomorrow.
As for today’s question, let’s look back.
What’s our Rushmore of sports in 2015?
Go, and remember the mailbag.