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AP SPIN METER: Polls put 2016 hopefuls in a fickle pickle

FILE - In this Sept. 23, 2014, file photo, the White House is seen through the North Lawn perimeter fence in Washington. For months, horserace polls have been the prime driver of who is perceived to be rising, falling and toast in the 2016 presidential campaign. That begins to change when Iowa caucus-goers open voting in the 2016 presidential campaign. But the polling blizzard will go on. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)
FILE - In this Sept. 23, 2014, file photo, the White House is seen through the North Lawn perimeter fence in Washington. For months, horserace polls have been the prime driver of who is perceived to be rising, falling and toast in the 2016 presidential campaign. That begins to change when Iowa caucus-goers open voting in the 2016 presidential campaign. But the polling blizzard will go on. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File) FILE - In this Sept. 23, 2014, file photo, the White House is seen through the North Lawn perimeter fence in Washington. For months, horserace polls have been the prime driver of who is perceived to be rising, falling and toast in the 2016 presidential campaign. That begins to change when Iowa caucus-goers open voting in the 2016 presidential campaign. But the polling blizzard will go on. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

By Associated Press 5 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) – Going into the Iowa caucuses in 2012, everyone was fixated on the opinion polls except, it seems, Iowa voters. Republicans delivered victory to a laggard in the surveys – and a humbling lesson on the hazards of reading too much into polling.

Memories are short. Come Monday in Iowa, or Feb. 9 in New Hampshire or somewhere, sometime, you can bet the poll-riveted political class will get another spanking.

For months, horserace polls have been the prime driver of who is perceived to be rising, falling and toast in the 2016 presidential campaign. That begins to change when Iowa caucus-goers open voting in the 2016 presidential campaign. But the polling blizzard will go on, as will the hand-in-hand game of expectations and perceptions, until votes have been cast in enough states to secure the party nominations. And from then until Election Day in November.

How addictive are polls? Donald Trump eats them for breakfast, lunch, dinner and bedtime snack. “YUGE” chunks of his rallies are about polls.

Bernie Sanders loves them, too, now that they look better for him. All candidates love polls pointing upward. When the needle just won’t budge, though, they invoke various rationalizations to explain how they get up and slog through another day.