U.S. foreign policy makers don’t always practice what they preach. For decades, presidents and secretaries of state told the world that the way to remain America’s ally and beneficiary was to embrace democracy. In practice, though, the United States often overlooks that principle. It willingly enters agreements with autocrats when a strategic alliance or commodity deemed valuable to U.S. interests is at stake. The practice was bound to come back to haunt the United States. Now, it has. The current protests in Egypt are testing the nimbleness of U.S. foreign policy.
The huge demonstrations against President Hosni Mubarak – now in their second week – threaten to topple the government. Mubarak has tried to defuse the situation. He shut down the state-controlled Internet and forced social networks like Twitter and Facebook to shut down. He ordered the military into the streets to confront protesters. He appointed new cabinet officers. Nothing has worked. Many observers believe that Mubarak will be ousted. That possibility is causing worldwide diplomatic unease.
There’s no way to predict what leader will emerge from the current chaos. Mubarak could survive. If he does, the U.S. failure to publicly support him might bring change to the U.S.-Egypt relationship. If he does not, it’s unclear who might lead the new Egyptian government.
It could be Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel laureate and seasoned diplomat. He’s a moderate, but his statements in the past suggest that he is no great friend of the United States. If not ElBaradei, the new leader could come from the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s second most powerful political party. It is somewhat militant and unfriendly toward the United States and Israel. Or the new leader could be an unknown arising from the ranks of the various protest movements. Whatever occurs, the U.S. relationship with Egypt will have to be forged anew.
In other Arab capitals, strong-armed rulers are watching events in Egypt and worrying about their own futures. They know the protests are contagious. The Egyptian demonstrators were inspired by a successful protest movement in Tunisia. There already have been protests in Yemen. Other Arab nations – Jordan and Saudi Arabia, for example – might soon be targets of similar demands for political freedom and economic reform.