Fab 4 picks
I said a couple of things on Press Row on Wednesday that likely deserve repeating here.
First, if my Fab 4 picks do not get better, I may have to yield the floor to Kyle the Magic 8-ball, the old-school, kid’s toy that shares desk space and occasionally makes an appearance on Press Row, our daily radio show locally from 3-6 on ESPN 105.1 the Zone. (Kyle picked Biden before the election, and said “My sources say no” when asked if we would have an official winner of the election by Friday. Hey, I don’t have sources that good.)
Second, as we discussed MACtion restarting last night, we offered “Bet big against the Arths.” My betting account got a boost with that one, but my picks record does not benefit sadly.
Which leads me to two fall back theories heading into a full schedule that opens November with the picks lettering at 21-22.
Find teams you can trust to be either good or bad. There are some missing here that I have conflicting trust issues with.
Like I trust Iowa has serious issues in that locker room, but I can’t trust the spot Michigan State is in after a huge win over rival Michigan last week.
I trust Southern Miss to struggle because of everything that has happened to them this season. But can we trust North Alabama on the other side?
With that, let’s roll to the picks, and have our fingers crossed that they are really Fab. (Or get ready to have Kyle make a relief appearance.)
Florida Atlantic minus-6.5 over Western Kentucky. I trust Western Kentucky to lay down. That’s enough for me.
Wyoming minus-3 over Colorado State. This game is tonight, and I believe the Cowboys are one of the best teams in that league. The Rams not so much. (And yes, buy the hook.)
Cal minus-1 over Washington. This is about my man crush on Justin Wilcox and that Cal defense more than anything. I truly trust Wilcox, and he returns 18 starters, including his QB and two future NFL top-two-round picks. Now remember that Washington has a new coach, a new QB and a new RB in the craziest offseason in college football history.
Michigan minus-3 over Indiana. Is there anything more trustworthy than winning 24 in a row? Because that’s what the Wolverines are riding into Bloomington on, a 24-game winning streak over the Hoosiers. (Yes, last time IU beat Michigan in football was the fall of 1987, a few months after Keith Smart’s last-second jumper gave Bobby Knight a March Madness title.) I also trust the spot here, and I am betting on that spot – with a smidge of Jimmys and Joes – as much as anything. After a disastrous offering against Michigan State, Coach Khakis knows the importance of this bounce-back spot. While Michigan has struggled against its Big Ten rivals and the league’s upper crust under Jim Harbaugh, he has bullied the middle-of-the-road teams in the league. That continues Saturday. (Yes, buy it down if you can.)
BYU minus-3 over Boise State. Buy the half for insurance, but here we are again loving the Cougars. I truly believe they truly believe “Why not us” in terms of the college football playoff. We’ve been riding the Cougars all year – that and picking against Kansas are about the only things I’ve done right this year – and we’re certainly not alone. This line opened with Boise State as a slight favorite, which makes sense Boise State has been a home underdog exactly one time in 15 years – a two-point underdog against Fresno State two years ago.
Tennessee minus-1.5 Arkansas. OK, I started this bounce back week saying I am only going with what I trust. Well, I’m ending with a pick that is 100 percent opposite of that theory. Arkansas is 5-0 against the number this year, one of eight college football teams perfect against the number that have played more than one game and the only team in the country perfect against the spread that has played more than two games. But this is bigger than trust at this point; this is about belief. Because I do believe this, and if Jeremy Pruitt does not realize it, well, then you have to wonder if he gets the magnitude of the job he’s been used to do in Knoxville: This is a must-win for the Vols. I will repeat that. This has to be viewed as a must-win and I think an extra week of preparation will show that.
Last week: 4-4 against the spread (that’s an even 50%, stupid Rutgers)
This season: 21-22 against the spread (48.8 percent, and maybe the biggest testament of how mediocre my picks have been this season is a 4-4 season actually bumped my season percentage a smidge)
Labor example
OK, by most reports, the NBA players and owners have come to terms to start the season in the days before Christmas.
Let’s start with the macro on this. Whether we want to admit it or not, the Corona is going to wreak havoc on the sports calendar well into 2021 too.
I can’t speak for you, but I truly thought this would be around the finish line of this thing to be honest. Like a lot of my original views on this, I was wrong.
And professional sports will have to handle that in the days to come, and those decisions and moves are even more critical moving forward because sports like NBA and MLB are coming off fiscally disastrous 2020s.
The players were clear that they wanted to start in January, at the earliest. The owners have been clear that the Christmas window and TV revenue is a must-have.
In that regard, kudos to both sides for working together to find a way to start on Dec. 22, which the players’ board of governors is expected to approve sometime today. This is not about winning sides in the post-and-during-Corona economic world.
This is about making the best of any and every situation.
And it looks like the NBA found that. At least for now.
Say what
When you type the first name of Falcons defensive end and first-round bust Takk McKinley it gets changed to ‘Talk.’
Somehow that seems fitting this morning considering that Talk McKinley has made more waves on Twitter in the last 36 hours than he has on the field in the last 36 or so months.
Takk McKinley aired his laundry on Twitter with this Tweet: “These @AtlantaFalcons turned down a 2nd round draft pick when I requested to get traded last year. The same @AtlantaFalcons turned down a 5th and 6th round draft pick from multiple teams when I requested to get traded this year. I only have 17.5 career sacks” and had three clown emojis.
One of the first responses was spot on: “We could have gotten a second-round for you?”
Yes, the Falcons are a dumpster fire and one of the worst things you can say about any professional team: The Falcons are way better in terms of talent than they are in terms of effort and results.
And that’s as big an indictment as you can make against any coach, and why Dan Quinn was walked to the parking lot. As for former GM Tommy Dmitroff, well, the Takk pick is why he’s looking for a new gig.
Let’s review the last seven Falcons first-round picks which includes the Takk disaster and the measle pick of Vic Beasley, who was released by the Titans this week:
2015 – Vic Beasley at 8; other future NFL pro bowlers on the board in Round 1 that year were Todd Gurley (10), Andrus Peat (13), Melvin Gordon (15), Marcus Peters (18), and Byron Jones (27).
2016 – Kenaue Neal at 17, and he’s been productive, but unable to stay healthy; other future NFL pro bowlers on the board in Round 1 that year were Ryan Kelly (18), Will Fuller (21), Kenny Clark (27), and a bunch of second-round stars including Michael Thomas. (Side question: How nasty would the last five years been with Michael Thomas and Julio Jones on the field at the same time?)
2017 – Takk McKinley at 26; other future NFL pro bowlers on the board in Round 1 that year were All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White (27), T.J. Watt (30), and Budda Baker and Dalvin Cook earlier in round 2.
2018 – Calvin Ridley at 26. Hard to complain about this one even with stars like Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb and Darius Leonard on the board.
2019 – Chris Lindstrom at 14; also available at the time were Jeffery Simmons at 19, Noah Fans at 20, and Josh Jacobs at 24.
2020 – AJ Terrell at 16, and he has looked like a good NFL corner; other first-rounders on the board at the time were some dudes and a lot of WRs, DBs and RBs who would have been a much better fit than rehabbed Todd Gurley.
So keeping Talking Takk, your time is coming.
This and that
– The election details continue to be debated, and the reviews of that coverage continue to make headlines. A heated confrontation between Anderson Cooper and Rick Santorum found another gear when Santorum said, “They boarded up businesses in New York City, not to keep Donald Trump supporters from looting, OK?” Anderson cut Santorum off almost immediately. Here’s more.
– Speaking of Press Row and election stuff, well, we discussed the controversial takes and up-and-down career of Jemele Hill for a bit. Hey, do whatever you can to provide for your family, and if you find a niche in today’s media realm that rewards you well in that niche, roll with it. There are a slew of folks who have found very lucrative lanes preaching to a collection of the converted and it works for them. I think some of that applies to the race-baiting and accusations Hill has done and made in her rise from newspaper columnist to ESPN anchor to a national column with The Atlantic. Case in point: She wrote on Twitter, “If Trump wins re-election, it’s on white people. No one else.” Well, considering that the vast majority of voters in general are white people, the fact that it looks like Biden is going to win is also on white people, no? And according to exit polls by Yahoo.com, Black men went to Trump and away from Democrats in historic numbers, Jemele.
– Again, here’s another Press Row connection, as TFP college football pooh bah and Press Row cohost David Paschall with a slew of college football goodies in today’s TFP. First there’s his picks column, then there is the goodness of the good teammate that Jarrett Guarantano has become, and finally there’s the need for Georgia to be physical at the Cocktail Party.
– And what you guys started discussing Wednesday about the election policies and the recounting debates was what I had originally wrote about for the 5-at-10, but it kind of morphed into today’s A2 column on that topic. Here it is. Thoughts?
– Impossible not to like the Packers tonight, right?
– Few things that make me smile like game show failures. Here’s a lady this week who tried to solve a Proper Name with “Sir Isaac Newton” with his lesser known brother, who gravitated more to car repair than math than Sir Isaac Newton.
Today’s questions
Promise a full Survivor update come tomorrow. There are a couple of Packers picks, so there’s that.
Gang, got a mailbag spot open if you got a question.
As for today through history, Bill Walton is 68 today, and he’s on the Rushmore of good to great players who would have been all-timers if not for injuries, right?
Monopoly was launched on this day in 1935. Gang, call me a nut but I think Monopoly is overrated.
Rushmore of most overrated board games. Go and be kind today.