The most important shopping period of the year for the nation’s retailers is under way. The last couple of months of the year always have been important to merchants, but that’s especially so during times — like the present — when the mood of shoppers is not easy to determine. True, the economy is improving and there are early indications that 2010 holiday sales will be more robust than those of 2009, but some worries remain for many businesses.
Such concern certainly is understandable. Many retailers earn a considerable chunk of their annual profit during the holiday shopping period — analysts say 25 to 40 percent is not unusual. That’s reason enough for merchants of all sizes and types to closely watch traffic counts, sales figures and other retail and commercial indices this time of year.
Many merchants, in fact, are doing much more than waiting and watching for customers and for business. They’re taking a far more active role in promoting sales this year than in the past. That’s why seasonal displays started to appear in October and why Santa’s arrival, once closely linked to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, was celebrated in many places shortly after Halloween. And it is why some traditional retailers already have announced that they’ll be open on Thanksgiving Day, and why some on-line retailers have said they will ship most holiday orders for free.
It’s all part of a concerted campaign to convince customers to spend more this year than they did in the same period in 2008 and in 2009. There are early signals at both the local and national level that the effort — buoyed by an improving national economy — will produce a positive and profitable result.
Many area merchants say that both traffic and shoppers’ willingness to buy appears higher this year than last. The retailers are quick to add, however, that consumers are still cautious and bargain-conscious. That’s consistent with early reports from individual businesses and retail groups across the country.
Proprietors of both brick-and-mortar locations and online retail sites are in better moods this year, but their outlook is tempered with caution. That mirrors forecasts from the experts.
The National Retail Federation said it expects sales for November and December to increase by about 2.3 percent this year compared with the holiday period in 2009. The increase is slightly lower than the historical average, but it is nevertheless a happy omen for retailers. Sales in 2009 were nearly flat and there was a 3.9 percent drop in 2008, the only year since figures have been kept that sales declined.
The prospect of better holiday sales this year is comforting. When all is said and done, consumer spending still is the backbone of retail business and the foundation of the national economy. Shoppers’ apparent willingness to spend more this year — even as they remain vigilant about price and value — strongly suggests that consumers have a more positive view of the economy and that retailers can expect modest but still welcome gains in sales during this holiday season.