The only thing certain about political races is that their outcomes are uncertain until voters go to the polls on Election Day.
It’s late August now, so in a little over a year and two months, the American people will be casting ballots in the November 2012 presidential and congressional elections.
Considering President Barack Obama’s low job approval rating and the weak economy, there is occasional talk of some other Democrat — perhaps Hillary Clinton — challenging him for the nomination next year. But realistically, it is assumed that Obama will be the 2012 Democrat candidate.
What is less clear at this point is which Republican is going to challenge him. Iowa will get the ball rolling with its caucuses early next year, and other states’ primaries and caucuses will be held in the ensuing months to pick a GOP nominee.
It’ll be a complicated process. A candidate can seem to be the front-runner, only to make an embarrassing gaffe on the campaign trail and lose that top status. Or, a dark horse candidate can shock the entire field by winning an early caucus or primary. You may recall, for instance, that Barack Obama surprised Hillary Clinton in 2008 by defeating her and John Edwards in the Iowa caucuses, and then going on to win the Democrat nomination and the White House.