When you’ve beaten eight ranked opponents in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year and you’re on the brink of winning your 11th straight Big 12 championship, you’d think your basketball accomplishments would be front and center on the third day of March.
But after watching Joel Embiid’s fragile back ruin last season’s national championship dream, the Kansas Jayhawks must now make sure freshman post player Cliff Alexander avoids NCAA trouble if they’re to have a realistic chance at this year’s title.
Kansas Jayhawks
* Record: 23-6 (12-4 Big 12) * AP ranking: 9 * NCAA RPI: 2 * Best win: 89-76 over then-No. 11 Iowa State * Worst loss: 77-52 at unranked Temple * Best stat: Kansas has eight wins against ranked opponents this season, the most in Division I. * Difference maker: Freshman Kelly Oubre Jr. is the highest Jayhawk on the draft boards, but junior forward Perry Ellis is the key to KU’s success, averaging team highs in points (14.5) and rebounds (7.2). Ellis hits 47 percent of his field-goal tries, 71 percent of his free throws and 38.5 percent of his 3-pointers. Throw in 1.3 steals per game and it’s hard to see the Jayhawks lasting long in March without him. * Reason to doubt: With freshman post player Cliff Alexander’s eligibility suddenly up in the air with the NCAA, the Jayhawks rarely have looked more vulnerable, despite the probability of winning an 11th straight Big 12 regular-season crown. Kansas is both mentally tough and extremely deep in the backcourt, but it may struggle inside during the postseason. * Will be trendy in Indy at the Final Four if … Alexander remains eligible, Oubre raises his game by another 20 percent and the whole team continues to shoot well from the foul line (71 percent) and 3-point line (39.7 percent). * Prediction: Sweet 16 * Coachspeak: “Their length and athleticism, and their ability to shoot the ball from the outside. Their sheer physical size made it tough for us.” — Texas Tech’s Tubby Smith after an 86-54 loss to Kansas
Wiedmer’s top four seeds
Editor’s note: The opening round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament – formerly the play-in games – begins two weeks from tonight. Today and again next Tuesday, our own Mark Wiedmer will give his last predictions for the top four seeds in each regional. Remember that the selection committee is supposed to do everything possible to keep conference foes who already have met twice apart until at least a regional final. It also has been encouraged in the past to use an S-curve, meaning the strongest No. 1 would face the weakest No. 2, and so on. EAST: 1. Duke, 2. Villanova, 3. Maryland, 4. Iowa State SOUTH: 1. Virginia, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Utah, 4. Oklahoma MIDWEST: 1. Kentucky, 2. Kansas, 3. Wichita State, 4. Notre Dame WEST: 1. Arizona, 2. Gonzaga, 3. Baylor, 4. Northern Iowa
“It’s not if, it’s just when,” Kansas coach Bill Self told The Kansas City Star on Monday of the rookie’s return. “I’m hopeful this week. But we’re really not operating on our schedule. We’re operating on someone else’s schedule. But from what we’ve been led to believe and been told, they (the NCAA) understand the importance and the value of (a quick resolution).”
Exactly what needs to be resolved for the 6-foot-8, powerfully built Chicago native to return to the court isn’t clear. On the advice of the NCAA, Self held Alexander out of Saturday’s 69-64 win over visiting Texas, a win that has the Jayhawks on the verge of that 11th straight Big 12 title.
Not that Self was focusing on that after sweeping the Longhorns.
“I couldn’t be happier, unless we take care of business on Tuesday,” Self said. “Then I’ll be a lot happier.”
Indeed, should they win tonight against visiting West Virginia, the Jayhawks can do no worse than tie for the conference title, regardless of what happens in Saturday’s visit to Oklahoma, which currently trails KU by a game in the standings and lost to the Jayhawks in Lawrence earlier in the season.
Yet regardless of what ultimately happens with Alexander, this has been a remarkable effort by Self, sophomore point guard Frank Mason and junior Perry Ellis, whose 28 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks against the Longhorns were another reason why he’s making a serious play for Big 12 player of the year.
“Right now, Perry Ellis is the best player in the league,” Self said of the 6-8, 225-pound junior from Wichita, Kan.
Added Kansas State coach Bruce Weber after a loss at KU earlier in the year: “Perry, he’s just rock solid. I think even last year I thought he could be MVP of the league. He’s always there for them. It’s like our Will (Spradling) and Shane (Southwell) last year. Because they are no-frills guys, I think people just forget about them.”
The early NBA draft boards continue to forget about him. NBADraft.net has him going to Phoenix in the second round with the 43rd overall pick. DraftExpress doesn’t have Ellis drafted in either round.
But college isn’t the NBA. As an experienced, polished player on a KU team forced to replace 2014 freshmen Andrew Wiggins (the first overall pick in last summer’s draft) and Embiid (drafted third), Ellis is the Jayhawks’ glue and guts.
“The fact that he’s been around and played a lot of games, you have to be impressed with the way that he has improved,” Texas coach Rick Barnes said of Ellis.
But it’s the way the Jayhawks have improved as a team that is most impressive. Before the season was six weeks old they’d lost to Kentucky by 32 and to Temple by 25. Now 23-6 overall, their four losses since — all Big 12 road defeats — have come by a total of 18 points.
And while only Ellis (14.5 ppg) and guard Frank Mason (12.1 ppg), are averaging double-figure scoring for the season, guard Wayne Selden scores 9.6 per game and freshman wing Kelly Oubre Jr. averages 8.8.
Given the fact that the Jayhawks are hitting nearly 40 percent from the 3-point line and more than 70 percent from the foul stripe this season, it’s all been enough for Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg to say after a loss at KU a few weeks ago:
“They’re shooting it a lot better than they have. They’re shooting almost 40 percent (from the 3-point line) as a team. When they’re shooting the ball like that and have Ellis down in the block, and Mason doing an unbelievable job running the show for this team, it’s a hard team to stop.”
Especially if the NCAA allows Alexander to rejoin his teammates in time for the start of the NCAA tournament.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.