BEIRUT (AP) – In ramping up its military involvement in Syria’s civil war, Russia appears to be betting that the West, horrified by the Islamic State group’s spread and an escalating migrants crisis, may be willing to quietly tolerate President Bashar Assad for a while, perhaps as part of a transition.
The logic is that prioritizing the fight with the jihadis means accepting Assad as the less bad option despite his own brutal acts, and might produce a more effective and coordinated fight in the air and on the ground.
It also would reorganize an awkward situation in Syria, whereby the Assad regime and the U.S.-led coalition are actively fighting the same group but do not act like allies – as opposed to coordination the coalition maintains with the central Baghdad authorities in the parallel fight against Islamic State group in neighboring Iraq.
Russia has no such complications.
A longtime backer of Syria’s government, Moscow has recently increased its military activity in Syria, sending military advisers, technicians and security guards with the main goal of setting up an air base near the coastal town of Latakia, a stronghold of the Syrian president. There are reports that the Russians had flown in troops and modular housing units. And Israel’s defense minister, Moshe Yaalon, says he expects Russians to be fighting alongside Assad’s troops.