Last week we won three games by half a point. Hey, as Yogi Berra might have said if he partook in the entertainment arts, “A half a point is worth way more than it used to be.”
So with that knowledge and a little bit of fun – remember these picks are for entertainment purposes only – let’s move to the Fab 4 (plus 1-plus 1 more) picks.
Boise State minus-2 over Virginia. BSU’s Broncos are used to the travel and the stage. Virginia put a lot of chips in the disappointing loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago, and the Cavaliers showed the wear and tear in a sleepwalking performance against William & Mary last week. (William played great and Mary really overachieved.) Boise State is physical and has more at stake. Yes, road favorites in night games can be troubling, but there’s a real chance picking against UVA and potential dead-coach-walking Mike London may become an entertaining trend to follow.
Tennessee-Florida under 50. We think Tennessee ends the streak. But we thought that last year (and the year before that, to be frank – or Billy or Jimmy or anyone else you may know). So we’re a little gun-shy about backing the Volunteers in what likely will be a pick ’em game come kickoff. We are not gun-shy about the total, however. Defense will be at a premium, and each team will be a little guarded. Again, we think the Vols win, but we really believe this will be a 20-14 game one way or the other.
Texas A&M minus-7 over Arkansas. Buy the half – shoutout Yogi – of course and relax. This is a neutral-site game in name only since the Razorbacks have sputtered and the Aggies have surged out of the gate. This one really has the potential to get one-sided early, and against a dizzying A&M pass rush led by future first-round NFL pick Myles Garrett, that spells really bad news for Arkansas.
Bowling Green minus-1 over Purdue. Bowling Green leads the free world in passing offense at more than 455 yards per game – more than 50 per game better than Texas Tech and Baylor, which rank second and third. Purdue is 76th in pass-efficiency defense. That’s not a real good matchup for the Boilermakers, who made need a few boilermakers after this one. (Side note: When your nickname can double as your cocktail of choice, well, that’s a plan for the weekend, you know?)
Navy minus-6 over UConn. Connecticut’s Huskies scared the whiskers off the Missouri Tigers last week. The Midshipmen don’t scare. They run. A lot. Through two games – both wins – Navy has thrown 13 total passes and has 11 rushing touchdowns. Read that again. Now know that Navy has put up 48 and 45 points in its two wins; UConn has scored 48 points total in three games. You’re welcome.
Alabama minus-38 over Louisiana-Monroe. Normally, Alabama in a paycheck game does just enough in a vanilla plan to beat an overmatched foe 38-7. This week, though – after the turnover-plagued home loss to Ole Miss – this has the feel of a bloodbath in Tuscaloosa. Alabama certainly has a bad taste in its mouth after suffering its first loss and losing control of its destiny. And this overmatched foe – ULM – actually beat Alabama in the last meeting between the two. This one feels like it could get out of control in a hurry, and remember Louisiana-Monroe allowed 51 to Georgia in 51 minutes.
Last week against the spread: 4-2 (67 percent)
Season against the spread: 9-7 (56 percent)
*****
SEC items of interest
1. Butch Jones in the moment. This is the biggest game of Butch Jones’ career in Knoxville, and it has nothing to do with it being the next game. Cliches, mumbo-jumbo and gobbledygook aside, Jones and Tennessee must win. It’s been a decade since the Vols have topped Florida, and other than 2012, these have been by and large mediocre Florida teams since Tim Tebow left the program in 2009. Butch is an elite recruiter. He has been an amazing bridge builder. He has been a wonderful ambassador for the program. But he has yet to land a signature win. Yes, he beat a ranked South Carolina team a couple years ago, and that was meaningful. But this is more than that. This is a defining moment, whether Butch wants to acknowledge it or not. And that definition, and the emotional ripples that will follow, will be clear come Saturday evening.
2. Sean White to the main stage. Jeremy Johnson’s Heisman train was derailed even before it really got started in an erratic performance in the season opener against Louisville. Now Johnson’s time as the Auburn starting quarterback has been put on hold after throwing six picks – and it could have easily been way more – and a slew of fumbles have sent him down the depth chart. Enter White, the undersized, over-achieving former four-star recruit who is being summoned to save the Tigers season against Mississippi State. No pressure, right, kid?
3. Alabama rebound. Ball security killed Alabama last week, as the Crimson Tide lost the turnover battle 5-0. Quarterback uncertainty didn’t help, either. Here’s a belief that Alabama gets well in a big way and a lot of people get to touch the ball in a lot of ways.
4. Ole Miss refocus. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rebels have to regroup and refocus after a week of hearing how special they are. If you are a supporter of the Rebels, you are glad the adjustment comes against a Vanderbilt team that would struggle scoring against the Ole Miss second-team defense. Still, sleepwalking can be dangerous, no matter who is on the other side.
5. Leonard Fournette, Grayson Lambert encores. After near-perfect performances last week, the LSU tailback and the Georgia quarterback have less daunting challenges this week. Fournette and the Tigers go to Syracuse; Lambert leads Georgia against a Southern team that matches up only in marching bands. What can be produced after head-turning Saturdays six days ago? We believe each will be fine, even if they are not as spectacular as they were this time last week.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter at @jgreesontfp and read his “5-at-10” column at timesfreepress.com every Monday through Friday starting at 10 a.m.