FILE – In this March 18, 2015, file photo, the NCAA logo is at center court as work continues at The Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, for the NCAA college basketball second and third round games. A federal judge in Chicago gave preliminary approval Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2016, to a reworked head-injury settlement between thousands of former college athletes and the NCAA that includes a $70 million fund to test for brain trauma. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File) Could the NCAA bubble burst?
We have discussed in this space on multiple occasions the debate whether the big-dollar cost bubble that is major college football could fold. It’s an interesting premise to be sure because the reason college football continues to rake in enough coin to pay for all of the sports programs for the major programs is that it still doesn’t have to pay the employees. (Stop, that’s a completely different discussion for a different day.)
But if football and the rising broadcast fees that are mainly paid for by ESPN, which is losing subscribers at an alarming rate, is potentially ripe for a closing economic window, could March Madness be on a similar arc?
While the TV rights are in the billions – and the NCAA’s outrage about a leaked bracket shows where the main focus of the governing body of college athletics is (on protecting its broadcast contracts first and foremost) – most of that money goes to the NCAA. Teams get a percentage cut depending on how many tournament games it wins.
Plus, this year the Final Four and the title game will be on cable for the first time. That’s a big difference. One of the main reasons the NFL is on such sound footing with its TV partners is its main cable contract is with its own network. (The ESPN Monday night football deal may be bigger than anything the league has with the NFL Network but ESPN is no higher than fourth among the five TV deals.) The NCAA tournament had the same stability until it dipped deeper in the pool and expanded to the Turner family of networks.
Yes, the Turner channels are not as prone to the cord cutting that has cost ESPN more than seven million subscribers in the last two years, but Turner’s pockets are not as deep as Disney’s (ESPN’s parent company) and if there are fewer bidders for any of the broadcast deals that means fewer money for the games.
Those TV contracts are stable right now – the NCAA signed a 14-year, $10-billion deal in April 2010 – but have we already passed the high-water mark of the Madness.
We can only speak for ourselves here, but this is the least excited we’ve ever been for this tournament.
In fact, we are more excited about the Mocs playing Indiana than filling out a bracket. On one hand that’s a testament to how likable Matt McCall’s Mocs are.
But on the other, it’s terrible news for the NCAA tournament, which needs the lifeline of the millions of millions of brackets filled out this week to remain relevant and demand that 11-figure TV deal in the future.
Most folks believe that Magic-Bird in 1979 jumpstarted the NCAA tournament. And that has merit. It’s also a common belief that the crazy upsets and finishes of the early 1980s – Jordan’s shot in ’82; NC State’s miracle in ’83; Villanova’s stunner in ’85 – captured our fire. And that also has merit.
But the NCAA tournament is what it is today in large part because of the bracket. Period. It gives the casual fan a vested interest regardless whether their alma mater is in the Dance or not. And before you say the magic of the Cinderella and the craziness of the first Thursday and Friday is more important, well, we’d ask is that more important because people really give two rips about Valpo or because they want to be the wise guy in the office that had Davidson and some skinny kid named Steph Curry in the Elite Eight?
The brackets are the bones of the popularity of this event, and this may be the craziest bracket ever.
That’s good and bad. Upsets are cool but the unknown – and we know less and less about college basketball teams each year because the regular season on a whole scale gets less and less attention – makes for the uncomfortable.
We have always said that the coming Thursday and Friday are on the Rushmore of best two-day combos in sports. We still think that’s true, but it’s hard to remember a time when we were this indifferent to the bracket, and in turn to the tournament.
NCAA tournament contests
OK, we are in for the fifth annual, “March to Madness: First-Out, Last-In Challenge” here at the 5-at-10.
The rules are pretty easy. Send us your picks for the first No. 1 seed to get bounced from the tournament and the last double-digit team left standing. You get one-point for picking the right
1 seed; you get 1.1 points for picking the right double-digit seed. We will have a tie-breaker if needed later in the tournament, but that’s TBD. Winner gets some NCAA swag from the first-round site of the Mocs. Deal? Deal.
Also, if you are looking for a traditional bracket game to play along, here’s the skinny on the Press Row bracket challenge sponsored by Penn Station East Coast Subs and ESPN 105.1 the Zone.
Go to espn.com and click on the bracket challenge. The group name is ESPN Chattanooga and the password is press row.
If you have any questions, email us at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com.
My early hunches on each game (and this is before conferring with our Magic 8 Ball for emphasis) are:
First-Out/Last-In: Oregon and we’re leaning toward the Wichita State/Vandy winner right now
As for the bracket, here’s our initial Elite Eight matchups (and this is subject to change): Maryland over Nova; Michigan State over Iowa State; Oklahoma over Duke; UNC over West Virginia. Then Maryland over Oklahoma and UNC over Michigan State, with UNC winning it all.
Super-duper-extra-awesome-monsterific-out-of-this-world Tuesday
OK, the only thing that comes up with more nicknames for big dates than politics is college sports. Super Saturday. Showdown Saturday. Rivalry Week.
Politics is the same. Today is something-or-other Tuesday, which means it comes on the heels of Surprise Saturday or Meltdown Monday or something close to that.
There are five states casting primary votes for presidential candidates. The names are familiar and the story lines make us need showers, but here’s where we are and there’s a very, very strong likelihood that the leader of the free world is from the shallow pool of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Hillary or Bernie.
E-gad.
Today’s primaries are important, especially Ohio and Florida on the Republican side.
If Rubio can’t win his home state of Florida, it’s impossible for him to continue. (You could say it’s close to impossible for him to win the nomination even if he does win the Sunshine State, but that’s beside the point at this juncture.)
Kasich is poised to fight for his home state of Ohio.
Each of those facts could derail Trump’s train in the long run.
Here are three quick predictions for today’s primaries:
1) Kasich wins Ohio and every known Republican this side of Lincoln and Reagan will try to find a way to back the Ohio governor.
2) Trump wins Florida and Rubio is toast. (Trump has led in every meaningful poll of the last eight months there, but if Bernie Sanders’ win in Michigan showed us, the polls can be wrong. Side note: If Rubio pulls out Florida, then the polling process in this election cycle is as worthless as our choices.)
3) Speaking of polling, here’s a guess that the exit polling numbers will show Bernie Sanders with strong showings in Illinois and Ohio. In truth, he needs to win at least those two – he has little to no chance in North Carolina or Florida – tonight to stay competitive.
And while we’re here, it’s never a bad idea to post the Vegas odds on the races:
Democrats (to get the nomination/to be the next president)
Clinton – 1-to-10 and 1-to-2 (Meaning you’d have to bet $1,000 to win $100 on Hillary winning the Democrat nomination and $200 to win $100 on her being the next president. The wise guys are basically saying Hillary has almost a 66-percent chance to be the next president. Gross.)
Sanders – 6-to-1 and 12-to-1
Republicans (to get the nomination/to be the next president)
Trump – 1-to-3 and 5-to-2
Cruz – 5-to-1 and 25-to-1
Kasich – 10-to-1 and 22-to-1
Rubio – 33-to-1 and 40-to-1
Very interesting to note that for the first time Kasich has passed Rubio in the eyes of the bookmakers. Also, Kasich has better odds of being elected president than Ted Cruz.
This and that
– Fun trailer for super-awesome “Game of Thrones” – which returns to HBO April 24. That also means we’ll be renewing our HBO subscription on April 23.
– Georgia opens its first spring drills under Kirby Smart today. TFP SEC ace David Paschall will be there and will give us updates on Press Row today and a full report in tomorrow’s TFP. Here’s Paschall’s look at the five questions facing the Bulldogs this spring.
– Speaking of Press Row, it was great catching up with Will Wade, the former Mocs coach and now the VCU boss who led the Rams into the tournament, too. The podcats of that interview is on espnchattanooga.com for those interested.
– How bad is it getting for golfing ace Jordan Spieth? Well after his latest struggles, he now is lamenting the decision making between he and his caddie.
– Thought this was an interesting look at some of the bonus money the NFL pays players with low-cost contracts. It also details how Matt Cassel got a $60 bonus from Buffalo for playing one play for the Bills last year.
– Here’s a draft story that we fully sport. Yes, that story details how the Titans should take Jalen Ramsey No. 1 overall because he’s the best player in the draft. We concur – and even wrote that a few weeks ago.
– Your UTC women’s basketball team got a 12 seed and will play Mississippi State in Starkville. Here’s Mean Gene Henley’s story. Weeds also wrote about Jim Foster’s Mocs.
Today’s question
Plenty to offer today.
Politics? Check. Contests? Check. Early entry into the mailbag – with a check? Who knows.
Today is March 15, the Ides of March. It’s also the 47th wedding anniversary of the 5-at-10’s parents. Major congrats on that you two.
There’s a lot of history in the Ides of March, given that name because on this day 2,060 years ago, Julius Ceaser was killed. The history of this day is brutal. The Watts riots broke out that day. Four police officers were charged with the Rodney King beating. Tons of WWII stuff.
Just not a good day.
Well, except for this: On this day in 1972, “The Godfather” premiered. Man, good times.
So let’s stay with the positive. Rushmore of Godfather quotes. Go.