5-at-10: Fab 4 picks, SEC items of interest, Pitino’s ultimate legacy, Rushmore of Lou

Fab 4 picks

There is a fair amount of unpredictability across all sports. That’s a large part of its charm. (Or as my father would always say after upsets big and small, “That’s why they play the game.”)

Be them upsets or complete stunners, we’ve seen a lot of each this year. Be it Iowa State in general – they Cyclones are ranked and have had a trend-setting month with some dude who was a former walk-on and third string QB at a community college – or Iowa in particular after a 31 point win over THE Ohio State that likely had Urban Meyer thinking about important it is to spend time with family.

Then there are the trending disappointments, and two of them will try to right the ship before Saturday’s loaded slate kicks off. First there’s 0-8 Georgia Southern – yes, that Georgia Southern, a team a lot of us around these parts would a few years ago expected closer to 8-0 rather than 0-8 – tonight against Appalachian State. App can score – it’s averaging more than 34 points a game against non-Power Five schools – and GSU can’t, posting more than 20 in only two of its eight losses. Just a head’s up for tonight.

The other one is the continued struggles of BYU, which is 2-8 overall and against the number, in its Friday date with UNLV.

As for the picks, finding those upsets can be tricky, and in an effort to continue a pretty stout streak we’re riding – 5-1 against the number last week, 9-2 vs. the spread the last two, and that’s not counting the two winners we dealt on the Wednesday MAC-tion – let’s try to peg the things we believe we know the best.

Deal? Deal.

We know that we have missed a lot of entertainment by ignoring FSU in this space. The Seminoles have been the perfect name team with which oddsmakers love to tease casual players. Combine the injuries, youth, and mounting frustration with the struggles, FSU remains the only team with a zero against the spread, going 0-7-1 against the number. (We’re still not pulling the trigger on the Seminoles this week because we could see Jimbo delivering a “This is our Sugar Bowl” speech before a trip to Clemson.)

We know we have made some hay leaving against Western Kentucky this year, which has been OK – 5-4 overall – but has been overvalued – 1-7-1 vs. the spread – by those that set the numbers. So there’s that

We know that stakes – and steaks for that matter – matter. And they can matter in each direction. A team with everything to play for – especially at home – can be dangerous.

We know that trustable quarterbacks matter. A whole lot. And forget about perspective, if you can find a coach-quarterback relationship that is centered on trust, well, that can be very entertaining this time of year.

We also know that this time of year – even when you’re riding a hot streak – almost every Vegas spread makes you use that sideway slow nod and think, “Yeah, that’s a good line.”

Let’s find some entertainment among them shall we?

Georgia minus-2.5 over Auburn. The first question simply can Auburn make this be the game that Jake Fromm (State Farm Khakis) has to deliver multiple third-and-8 completions to extend drives, and in the grandest AU dreams, to try to score points late. There certainly is the motivation factor on each side – Georgia chasing the impossible dream and Gus Malzahn needing a win over one of AU’s November rivals in the worst way. Still, Georgia is more complete, has more depth and is more healthy, especially at running back.

MTSU minus-11 over Charlotte. Want to talk about QB-coach trust? Try this one: MTSU has a Stockstill in each spot. Yep, young Brent Stockstill – coach Rick’s son – is back and healthy. He has played in three games this year – a loss against Vandy, a win at Syracuse and last week’s rout over winless UTEP. In his last two starts (both wins) he’s 35-of-66 for 459 and six TDs. (By the way did we mention that Charlotte is averaging less than 13 points a game and its dual threat QB is nursing a sore ankle?)

Alabama minus-14 over Mississippi State. Yes, we trust Alabama. It’s impossible not to. It’s also impossible not to remember what Alabama did to Nick Fitzgerald last year in the Tide’s 51-3 win. (And if you think last year’s Tide defense was better than this year’s well, OK. It lost a lot of NFL talent, but Alabama is allowing a nation-leading 9.8 points per game this year, too.) Fitzgerlad was 10-of-33 for 145 yards and a pick and ran 11 times for 15 yards last year in Tuscaloosa. It’s also hard not to recall what a Georgia defense, which is built very similarly to Alabama’s with some stud duck talent too, did to Fitzgerald earlier this year. Nick was 14-of-29 for 83 yards and two picks with 47 yards on 10 carries in Athens in Georgia’s 31-3 win in September. We’ll take the half to be safe, but this feels like a spot that Alabama plays really well, banged up or not.

FAU minus-5 over La. Tech. OK, a little Lane Kiffin story because in a world of college football coaches trying their dangedest not to be entertaining (in the actual definition of entertaining) or answer in anything this side of Robot-ese, Kiffin is truly his own dude. Last week, after taking a safety in the final seconds that flipped a seven-point lead to a non-spread-covering 30-25 victory, Kiffin took to Twitter and trolled the spread, gamblers and even Nick Saban by using the hashtag #ratpoison. You stay you Lane. As for football, Lane being Lane has always led to offensive success. His FAU bunch is 15th nationally in points per game (38.4), and really has been excellent since September with showings of 58, 69, 42 and 30 in four straight wins. Now comes a trip to scenic Rushton, La., where the La. Tech Techsters are only 1-3 overall this year.

Fresno State minus-9.5 over Hawaii. Let’s roll a little math, shall we? Hawaii is allowing 464 yards (117th nationally) and 34.2 points (107th) per game. The Rainbow Turnstiles are 1-8 against the number. Fresno is allowing 311 yards (16th nationally, ahead of some team named LSU) and 18 points per game (14th). The Bulldogs are 6-3 against the spread. Sometimes, it’s easier when we break it down right? Yes, travel is always a concern, but remember the motivation. Fresno State is playing for a chance to be in the Mountain West title game; Hawaii is playing because they have to.

Southern Miss minus-10 over Rice. Who watched the Southern Miss-UT game? Here’s believing that if UT had not forced a couple of turnovers deep in Golden Eagles territory and if the penalty disparity had not been something like 402 for USM and 1 for the Vols, that was a very tight game. (Seriously, the penalty divide was USM 14 for 120 yards and 3-for-29 for UT.) USM limited Tennessee, which spent most of the second half protecting freshman quarterback Will McBride, to 210 yards. Now comes a Rice offense that is as soft as, well, you guessed it. Rice is in the bottom four in points nationally and dead flippin’ last in turnover margin. The Owls are minus-21 in takeaways, which works out to -2.33 per game. Buy the half for peace of mind, but we’d be surprised if Rice’s offense, which now has its starting left tackle listed as doubtful and its starting running back listed as questionable for Saturday, cracks double digits.

Last week: 5-1 against the spread (83.3 percent)

This season: 34-20-1 against the spread (63 percent)

SEC items of interest

For time and space we will keep this short. For matters of interest we will also keep this of a limited scope.

Seriously, other than the folks in East Tennessee and those that have loaned Butch Jones money, who really cares about Tennessee-Missouri? Or Kentucky-Vandy? Or the “Wow, didn’t know he still had a head coaching job Bowl” that is Bob Davies’ New Mexico team vs. Kevin Sumlin’s Texas A&M bunch?

Not when Georgia heads to Auburn in what is the SEC’s first meeting of top-10 teams this season. Crazy, right? Not when Alabama goes to Starkville for a meeting of No. 2 and No. 16, a match-up that on most every previous Saturday in this decidedly top-heavy SEC season would have been the best on the board. And not when it’s impossible to take your eyes off the dumpster fire that is the Florida Gators, who head to South Carolina as a double digit underdog to former coach Will Muschamp.

First down. Georgia protecting the quarterback. This is multi-layered as our view as the key to the Bulldogs. Georgia must physically protect Jake Fromm. Auburn is tied for 17th nationally with 2.89 sacks per game, and defensive end Jeff Holland is second in the SEC with eight sacks. Georgia has been great at protecting Fromm, allowing only nine sacks this year in nine games. But a big part of that has been the overpowering Bulldogs running game that has allowed Fromm and OC Jim Chaney the glorious luxury of play-action and picking their spots. Auburn has to put the Georgia offense in places that everyone in the building knows Fromm’s dropping back, and the Tigers front seven can try to create pressure, which often in big games can create turnovers.

Second down. Auburn finding running lanes. We think this would likely be a pick-em game in Kam Pettway, Auburn’s monster, bruising, between-the-tackles power back, was healthy. But he’s not and that leaves a monumental responsibility on the shoulders of Kerryon Johnson. Yes, Johnson has been durable, and yes he has been productive (he’s second in the league with 868 rushing yards, despite missing some time early, and his 15 rushing TDs is tied for third national). But this is Georgia defense is better in points allowed, rushing yards allowed and total defense than the Clemson bunch that completely suffocated Auburn earlier this year. Creating space for Johnson is the biggest key for the Auburn offense, and that will allow Jarrett Stidham more time, and allow Gus Malzahn more options in what is a monster game for his long-term job security in Auburn.

Third down. Tide’s next wave. There are a lot of national mouthpieces saying the Bulldogs can topple the Tide. It’s possible. (Insert Pop’s “That’s why they play the game” line here.) And a primary reason for that optimism is the rash of season-ending injuries Alabama has suffered at linebacker. Sure, no one is going to feel sympathy for depth challenges for Nick Saban. Not even Saban. Still, here’s betting there’s going to be a new name of a future star – Hi Dylan Moses – and probably an SEC freshman of the week emerge from the playing time opportunity for the Tide defenders.

Fourth down. Florida’s anthem. OK, Gainesville native and legendary Rock-n-Roll icon Tom Petty died in his home on Oct. 2. The Florida crowd at The Swamp on Oct. 7 did a magical rendition of “Won’t Back Down” during the LSU game as a tribute. Maybe they should have done “Free Fallin'” instead. Since Petty’s death the Gators are bagel-and-4 with a 17-16 loss to LSU, a 19-17 loss to Texas A&M and complete pantsings by Georgia (42-7) and Missouri (45-16). Plus, there’s the Coach Boom factor. That said, there’s been a recent trend of former Florida coaches like Steve Spurrier and Muschamp winding up, and having success, at South Carolina. Anyone wanna bet that Jim McElwain will not continue that trend?

Legacy forever tarnished?

What will be the lasting image of Rick Pitino? (Other than the glorious LeBatard Show joke that fairly accurately pictures him as a vampire and notes that he has spent a fair amount of his time coaching near Transylvania University in Kentucky.)

How will history remember Pitino?

If you think of Pitino’s coaching career as vessel, there’s certainly no doubt that it’s sprung a few leaks through the years and is taking on water at a dangerous rate. Let’s list the pros and cons (certainly a joke-worthy double-entendre since lots of his college players were paid like pros and a couple of his former ex-coaches may be ex-cons sooner rather than later):

Dude was one of the short-list maestros as far as strategy, especially defensively.

Dude was among the first to incorporate the college-version of today’s basketball version of sabermatics that focused on the value of the 3. (He also was one of the founding fathers of the philosophy in college of 3 or lay-up, and there’s nothing worse than 16-footer.)

Dude also laid was ahead of even the Alabama football coach by employing the Saban-metric of recruiting more talent than everyone else allows you so many advantages.

Those Kentucky teams that landed Pitino a natty and Tubby Smith one too, were so over the top loaded. Sure, the UNLV, Duke and even Fab Five Michigan teams may have had a few more first rounders, but that 1995-96 UK bunch was 10-deep and had nine future NBA players. That allowed practices to be brutal. It allowed him to demand perfection for players to get minutes. It also allowed him during games to stretch his defense from baseline to baseline and raise the level of physicality to a place that a) the refs would either stop calling all the fouls or b) the refs would keep calling fouls and that would get each team in foul trouble and Pitino knew his 6-7-8 were better than anyone elses.

In terms of being a basketball man he’s an undeniable genius. In terms of being a man, each passing story becomes harder to imagine a single likable quality about him.

The latest is this from Yahoo Sports, which includes the details that the indictment filed against one of the former coaches in the FBI sting says Pitino knew of the six-figure payment to the five-star recruiting that became the latest line item on what seems to be a growing dossier of Pitino’s particularly unpleasant past. We’re to the point that little would surprise us, and that all of it has forever buried all of his amazing basketball talents. (Not the least of which was getting that Providence team to the Final Four in the late 1980s.)

And he’s not going to be alone, for sure. Bruce Pearl is not cooperating with an internal investigation at Auburn, which screams bad things.

And there will be more as each shoe – be them designer Adidas, Nike or what have you – falls around a sport that is about to get started but sooner rather than later must be overhauled.

This and that

– Friends, we have said it multiple times that when the TFP’s college hoops ace Mark Wiedmer writes about college basketball, we’re in. We should also realize the gift the area has with college football guru David Paschall puts fingers to keys on the SEC. Here’s a sampling of a normal Thursday for him with an Alabama story, a Georgia story and his picks column. Paschall’s efforts alone are worth your $1 today gang, nevermind all the other good stuff in there.

– Man, that NFL seems to be busting at its seems right? Quick name the last story on the NFL that you thought, “Man, that’s a good thing and that makes me happy.” Hard, right? Well, add this to the other side of that ledger. Jerry Jones is threatening to sue the league over Roger Goodell’s extension. Buckle up gang.

– Saw this footage of a cobra-vs.-mongoose battle off a golf course in South Africa. Wow. Mental note, if we ever visit that course and miss the fairway, well, that’s one Titleist we will do without.

Today’s question

Mailbag, friends. Mailbag.

Speaking of upset earlier, which top-10 favorite has the best chance to lose this weekend? Why.

As for the day – Nov. 9 – let’s move quickly.

Jack the Ripper’s fifth and most likely last victim was found on this day in 1888.

Bob Gibson was born today in 1935. That dude was nasty. Tom Fogerty was born on this day in 1941. David Duval is 46 today. Man thought he’d have won a lot more than he did.

If you need a Rushmore, in honor of Lou Ferrigno, aka the Incredible Hulk, who was born today in 1951, let’s do a Rushmore of Lou.

Go.