Fab 4 picks
Man, weekends like the previous one can shake the confidence of any and all entertainment hunters. Three bad beats – including the West Virginia debacle with the Mountaineers surrendering a 25-point, fourth-quarter lead to hang on a deny a two-point conversion in a 38-36 win – left us at 5-5 over the last two weeks.
It also dropped us below 60 percent against the number for the first in a while.
So how do we answer. By swinging big and playing on what we believe we know. As for some interesting trends to keep an eye on, there are two perfect teams in terms of the number this year. Georgia Tech is 6-0 against the Vegas number; BYU is 0-8 against the number. (Fresno State is 6-0-1 and UCF is 5-0-1; FSU is 0-4-2 with multiple games that have ended as pushes.)
To the picks, and lines are from vegasinsider.com as of Thursday morning.
Georgia minus-13.5 over Florida. The divide between the haves and the have nots in the SEC has never been greater. Georgia is a have; even if Florida is not a have not per se, they certainly are not a have. Yes, we’re all confused. Here’s what we do know: It’s a rivalry game that has defied predictions since Spurrier was involved. Is that scary? Potentially. But this feels like the biggest mismatch in recent memory.
Penn State plus-6.5 over THE Ohio State. We spoke last week about being in the rare place in which Notre Dame was underrated. This is the not-so-rare place in which THE Ohio State is overvalued. Quick, name the last time J.T. Barrett delivered in a big game against a big-time opponent? Exactly. Yes, THE Ohio State is dropping gaudy numbers on overmatched foes. Penn State is legit.
Urban Meyer after a bye 20-1, 5-0 vs. top 25 after a bye week in his career.
Washington minus-17 over UCLA. Yes, this is a big number. But it’s not big enough. Know this: Washington laid a total egg last time out – a season-altering 13-7 loss at Arizona State. They have had two weeks to stew about it. Now know this: UCLA is trash on the road. Trash. The Bruins have allowed 48 points at Memphis, 58 at Stanford and 47 at Arizona this year and lost seven straight away from L.A. This feels like 48-20.
Florida Atlantic minus-7 over Western Kentucky. Lane Kiffin is having a lot of fun right now, dropping big numbers on everyone in sight and his Owls offense is starting to click. Since a week two loss at Wisconsin, FAU has scored 45, 31, 38, 58 and 59 in its last five. Buy the half to be sure, but know that WKU is overvalued, and has been all season.
Tennessee-Kentucky under 46.5. We thought this was going to be an offensively challenged contest when the numbers came out Sunday. And that was before John Kelly was suspended for this game. A win is wanted by each for sure, but Tennessee feels desperate. Barring overtime, this has the feel of a 20-17 game, one way or the other.
Last week: 1-4 against the spread (20 percent)
This season: 25-18-1 against the spread (58.1 percent)
2007: Knowshon Moreno scored three touchdowns during a 42-30 win over Florida, with his first score followed by an end-zone celebration that involved most of Georgia’s players. The Bulldogs were just 4-2 at the midway mark but caught fire, knocking off the Gators and then roaring past Auburn while wearing black jerseys. Wearing black again at the Sugar Bowl, Georgia routed Hawaii to finish 11-2 and No. 2 behind LSU.SEC items of interest
With Alabama off, the SEC schedule figures to be more competitive this week. In fact, Alabama, Auburn and LSU all take a breather before heading into the November roll to the finish.
With that, we stare at a lot of games this weekend that a lot of teams need wins this weekend for myriad reasons. Coaches with hot seats. Fans’ interest hanging in by a thread. Wins for bowl positioning and in some cases bowl bids.
First down. The cocktail party. Ah, Georgia-Florida in Jacksonville. If you have been, well, you know. If you haven’t been, well, your liver likely appreciates that fact. It’s hard to see how Florida is going to get to double digits against a Georgia defense that has been smothering. That said, this is the place that crazy things happen, like Mark Richt’s celebration and so many others. Good stuff.
Second down. Will Butch rally the troops? You have to respect Butch Jones’ decision to suspend John Kelly. Kelly was stopped by the cops and marijuana was found in his car. They are trying to get to the bottom of it, and until they do, Butch will sit his best player. In what becomes the next “Biggest Game” of Butch’s time in K-Town. Will the Vols respond? Hard to know, because since the second-half of the Florida game, the Vols have not been good and, at times, have been listless. Hard to see Butch staying much longer if UT loses this one, so there you go.
Third down. Who will stake a claim for No. 4? There looks to be two great SEC teams in Georgia and Alabama. One good one in Auburn, which still likely is kicking itself for going uber-conservative at Baton Rouge. LSU looks better, but the loss to Troy is hard to excuse. That leaves Mississippi State and Texas A&M, and those two meet Saturday in a sneaky good game. MSU has Nick Fitzgerald. A&M has Christian Kirk. Good times.
Fourth down. Desperation. Vandy started 3-0 and Nick Saban said the Commodores were a top-25 team. That was before the Tide put the Anchor Down 59-0. Double-digit losses to Florida and Georgia and Ole Miss have followed. Now at 3-4, if Derek Mason and Co. are going to get to a bowl game, Saturday at South Carolina feels like a must-win. Anyone else think the first one to 14 wins this one?
Houston Astros’ Carlos Correa, George Springer one Marwin Gonzalez celebrate after Game 2 of baseball’s World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2017, in Los Angeles. The Astros won 7-6 to tie the series at 1-1. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)World serious
Wow, not sure how many stayed with Game of the World Series until the end, but those that did were rewarded.
Houston became the first team to homer in the ninth, 10th and 11th innings in a playoff game and held on for a thrilling 7-6 win that had a little bit of everything crammed in its more than 4 hours.
It featured eight homers between the teams, 14 hits by the Astros and a surprising implosion from a Dodgers bullpen that until Wednesday night had been completely lights out.
Let’s go to the scene:
Dodgers nursing a 3-2 lead in the ninth with closer Kelsey Jansen on the mound, and every Dodgers fan everywhere had to be thinking, “Wow, a 2-0 lead with Darvish going in Game 3 and Keuchel and Verlander already in the rear view. Awesome.”
It was an understandable thought considering the following. So far in the postseason, Jansen had pitched eight times. The Dodgers had won all eight of those games. He had allowed two hits and an unearned run over those nine innings. It was a continuation of his dominant regular season. Since July 24, Jansen had pitched 26 innings and allowed three earned runs with 47 strikeouts.
Enter Marwin Gonzalez, who was 6-for-42 before that at-bat in October.
And of course he hit the ball over the centerfield fence because, well, baseball.
Especially in October.
Now the series is wide open and anyone’s guess.
Good times, even though it last into Thursday morning.
This and that
– Speaking of the World Series, Cameron Maybin stealing second base last night got America a free taco from Taco Bell. Here’s more.
– Also speaking of the Series, Vin Scully announcing the first pitch with Fernando and Steve Yaeger was awesome in its awesomeness.
– Awful news for a great player. Patriots linebacker Dont’a Hightower is out for the year with a torn pectoral. Ouch.
– Many thanks to former Baylor School star golfer and PGA Tour player Luke List for joining us on Press Row on Wednesday. If you missed it, here’s the replay.
Today’s question
Hey, mailbag folks.
Do you think Butch suspending John Kelly was the right move?
On this day, Ali fought Jerry Quarry in the Omni in his first fight after getting out of jail for evading the draft.
Hillary Clinton is 70 today. Seth MacFarlane is 44.
On this day in 1881, Wyatt Earp, Doc Holliday and the Clantons were involved in the shootout at the OK Corral.
That instantly makes us think of Tombstone of course.
So, let’s go with a Rushmore of movies with a city in the title.
Go.