Man, weekends like the previous one can shake the confidence of any and all entertainment hunters.
Three bad beats – including the West Virginia debacle in which the Mountaineers surrendered a 25-point lead in the fourth quarter at Baylor only to hang for a 38-36 win by denying a two-point conversion – left those following the advice in this column at 5-5 over the past two weeks. It also dropped us below 60 percent against the number for the first in a while.
So how do we answer? By swinging big and playing on what we believe we know.
As for some interesting trends to keep an eye on, there are two perfect teams in terms of the number this year. Georgia Tech is 6-0 against the Vegas number; BYU is 0-8 against the number. (Fresno State is 6-0-1 and Central Florida is 5-0-1; Florida State is 0-4-2 with multiple games that have ended as pushes.)
To the picks, and lines are from vegasinsider.com as of Thursday morning.
Georgia minus-13.5 over Florida. The divide between the haves and the have-nots in the Southeastern Conference has never been greater. Georgia is a have; even if Florida is not a have-not per se, the Gators certainly are not a have. Yes, it’s confusing. Here’s what I do know: It’s a rivalry game that has defied predictions since Steve Spurrier was involved. Is that scary? Potentially. But this feels like the biggest mismatch in recent memory.
Penn State plus-6.5 over THE Ohio State. I wrote last week about the rare moment in which Notre Dame was underrated. This is the not-so-rare place in which THE Ohio State is overvalued. Quick, name the most recent time J.T. Barrett delivered in a big game against a big-time opponent? Exactly. Yes, THE Ohio State is dropping gaudy numbers on overmatched foes. Penn State is legit.
Washington minus-17 over UCLA. Yes, this is a big number. But it’s not big enough. Know this: Washington laid a total egg last time out – a season-altering 13-7 loss at Arizona State. The Huskies have had two weeks to stew about it. Now know this: UCLA is trash on the road. Trash. The Bruins have allowed 48 points at Memphis, 58 at Stanford and 47 at Arizona this year, and they have lost seven straight away from Los Angeles. This feels like 48-20.
Florida Atlantic minus-7 over Western Kentucky. Florida Atlantic coach Lane Kiffin is having a lot of fun right now by dropping big numbers on everyone in sight as his Owls start to click on offense. Since losing at Wisconsin in the second week of the season, they have scored 45, 31, 38, 58 and 59 points in their past five games. Buy the half to be sure, but know that Western Kentucky is overvalued and has been all season.
Tennessee-Kentucky under 46.5. I thought this was going to be an offensively challenged contest when the numbers came out Sunday, and that was before Tennessee running back John Kelly was suspended. A win is wanted by each for sure, but the Volunteers seem desperate. Barring overtime, this has the feel of a 20-17 game, one way or the other.
Last week: 1-4 against the spread (20 percent)
This season: 25-18-1 against the spread (58.1 percent)
With Alabama off, the SEC schedule figures to be more competitive this week. In fact, Alabama, Auburn and LSU all take a breather before heading into the November roll to the finish. With that, this weekend we’re staring at a lot of games in which teams need wins for myriad reasons. Coaches with hot seats. Fans’ interest hanging by a thread. Wins for bowl positioning, and in some cases, bowl bids.
First down. The cocktail party. Ah, Georgia-Florida in Jacksonville. If you have been, well, you know. If you haven’t been, well, your liver likely appreciates that fact. It’s hard to see how Florida is going to get to double digits against a Georgia defense that has been smothering. That said, this is the place that crazy things happen, like Mark Richt’s celebration and so many others. Good stuff.
Second down. Will Butch rally the troops? You have to respect Tennessee football coach Butch Jones’ decision to suspend Kelly, who was stopped by cops who said they found marijuana in his car. They are trying to get to the bottom of it, and until they do, Butch will sit his best player. Will the Vols respond in what is now the newest “biggest game” of Butch’s time in K-Town? That’s hard to know, because since the second half of their loss at Florida in mid-September, the Vols have not been good and, at times, have been listless. It’s hard to see Butch staying much longer if Tennessee loses this one, so there you go.
Third down. Who will stake a claim for No. 4? There appear to be two great SEC teams in Alabama and Georgia, plus one good one in Auburn, which is likely still kicking itself for going uber conservative in its loss at LSU. Speaking of which, LSU looks better, but its loss to Troy before starting this three-game winning streak is hard to excuse. That leaves Mississippi State and Texas A&M, and those two meet Saturday in a sneaky good game. Mississippi State has dual-threat quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. A&M has standout wide receiver Christian Kirk. Good times.
Fourth down. Desperation. Vanderbilt started 3-0, and Alabama coach Nick Saban said the Commodores were a Top 25 team. That was before the Crimson Tide put the anchor down, 59-0. Double-digit losses to Florida, Georgia and Ole Miss have followed. Now at 3-4, if Derek Mason and Co. are going to get to a bowl game, Saturday at South Carolina feels like a must-win situation. Anyone else think the first one to 14 wins this one?
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com and 423-757-6343.