Fab 4 picks
Well, last week was entertaining in every way until it wasn’t entertaining.
Stanford’s wicked bad beat on Northwestern. Half-point decisions. Late-game penalties that turned covers upside down.
Are those excuses? Maybe. OK, yeah, they are excuses.
But pickers gotta pick and we’re in, and after a 6-7 Week 1, we are going back to basics. We are looking for a terrible team or two to ride into a 2-10-type debacle.
There are some contenders: Akron, which got rolled by Illinois last week 42-3, but they are facing a UAB team that survived Alabama State, so this is a stinky on stinky, but each is a contender moving forward for the “Hey, they have already bagged this year” award; Another one is South Florida, which was absolutely hosed by a good Wisconsin team, but the Bulls play a Georgia Tech team that could not get out of its own way. We also are watching to see what UConn does this week.
But the major key here is not to overreact to Week 1. Yes, I know that’s tough UT fans, because it was a disastrous Week 1 – the ESPN Power Index listed the loss to Georgia State as the fourth-worst upset in history. So there’s that.
So, if we are going to react and not overreact, where does that leave us? It leaves us hunting value and playing more totals.
Let’s roll.
UCLA minus-7 over San Diego State. Chip Kelly needs this one, considering he’s 3-10 with the Bruins. A loss to Cincinnati is far from humiliating. San Diego State has some issues – they beat Weber State 6-0 last week – and like we had with USC last week, the talent edge is clear here. Buy the number to be safe, but this may be my favorite play on the board.
Tulane plus-18.5 over Auburn. The Tigers pulled despair from the jaws of the Ducks last week with some last-second magic. I would like this pick even more if it started at 11 a.m. Central – it’s a night game at Jordan-Hare – but Tulane is pretty good and Green Wave coach Willie Fritz knows what he’s doing. Auburn almost always comes out slow in moments like this, and man does this really feel like a 28-17 final. And goodness help Auburn fans if this game comes down to Gus Malzahn making a two-point conversion decision.
Miami minus-4 over UNC. Another team entering Week 2 on an amazing high, but was UNC’s come-from-behind win over South Carolina because of anything the Heels did or what the Gamecocks didn’t do? They didn’t stop the run. They couldn’t get off the field on third down. Jake Bentley turned it over inexplicably. And Miami sat and watched and will bring a) the better freshman quarterback, b) a meaner attitude, and c) a roster that is more athletic at almost every position.
Syracuse is plus-2 over Maryland over 57.5. Wow, this line is going nuts. It started with Syracuse at minus-5, it has gone to Maryland minus-2. Yes, Syracuse is the ranked team and Maryland is just getting votes, but (there’s always a but, right Spy?) in the last 23 instances ranked team underdog against an unranked team, the unranked team is 19-4. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Stay away from the line. Play the over. Could Syracuse be looking ahead to Clemson? Maybe. This feels like a 38-35 outcome either way, which points to the over.
Penn State-Buffalo over 55.5. Hmmmmmm, here’s a thought that Penn State may cover that number by themselves. And they may need to, considering Buffalo scored 38 against Robert Morris. Side story: Forget what NCAA tournament it was but Robert Morris was playing UNC in a 16-1 and before the pods, I want to say Duke was there for the first round, too. The Duke fans obviously were trying to support Robert Morris, and the crafty Duke fans started the “Let’s go Bob” clap-clap, clap-clap-clap.
Last week: 6-7 against the number
This season: 6-8 against the number
College football items of interest
Our picks are one thing. Those are the games we are chasing “entertainment.”
The games that are more enjoyable to watch are another matter entirely. Here’s a quick list of things we’re looking forward to this weekend:
– Bounce back in K-town? We think Tennessee’s coaches and players realize the magnitude of the moment. This is a must win and if we had to make a pick we’d take the Vols and lay the 3.5 but a lot of folks in Vegas are fading the Vols big time, which is scary because Vegas does this stuff for real.
– Clemson-Texas A&M. Speaking of Vegas, the sharp money loves, Loves, LOVES Clemson in this one. So there’s that. I hope this is a good game, but I think Clemson is scary good offensively and the Aggies are overrated.
– LSU at Texas. Buckle up for the river of “Tom Herman is unbeaten as an underdog” stories this week. Has LSU really opened their offense up? Yes, the numbers were scary against Georgia Southern, but 70 percent of the Tigers’ passes in Week 1 were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Will that work against an athletic Texas defense? We’ll see. I like the Tigers to win, but that number has grown to 6 on the road in a crazy environment.
– What will Jalen and Justin and Jacob do for encores? The big-name former SEC quarterbacks lit it up in Week 1, what will they do in Week 2? Jacob Eason and the Huskies go to California, where Justin Wilcox is doing work. Justin Fields is in the crosshairs of a trendy upset pick when Cincy comes to The Horseshoe.
– Go Mocs. Big chance for a big win against a Jacksonville State that is not as good as we normally would expect from Jacksonville State. War Rusty.