Tennessee and Georgia have enjoyed above-average job growth over the past dozen years since the Great Recession rattled the global economy in 2007.
But the pace of hiring is expected to slow in Tennessee over the next couple of years and fall slightly below the national average, according to the annual economic forecast delivered to Tennessee’s governor today. Economists at the University of Tennessee Boyd Center for Economic Research said the threat of trade restrictions, a global economic slowdown and limits on available workers will limit Tennessee’s economic growth in 2020 and 2021.
Matt Murray, associate director of the Boyd Center and the principal author of the economic forecast, puts the chances at a recession, or decline in economic growth, at no more than 30% in the next year. Barring unforeseen circumstances, Murray said Tennessee’s economic expansion, already the longest on record after more than 10 years of consecutive growth, should continue this year and next, albeit at a slower growth rate.
“While our short-term forecast [for the next 10 quarters ahead] does not call for a recession, we do project slower positive economic growth in the near term,” the UT economic forecast concludes.
From its peak at 10.5% in 2009, the state’s jobless rate has fallen to 3.3% in November, the most recent month for which data is available. Tennessee’s jobless rate has been below 4% for the past two years, which Murray said suggests “the economy is hovering around its full employment level” where everyone who is willing and able to work is doing so.