Fab 4 picks
Hey, I know the games are about the games.
But the participants are about the money, no? Have to be, especially when there’s this much at stake.
Across the South, we have been forever exposed and conditioned to the overwhelming number of calls Alabama football and Kentucky basketball consistently get.
And the conspiracy theorists among us are quick to bemoan them. But the fiscal and physical truth is the SEC is better — better as a product, better as a money-maker, better in every way — when Alabama football and UK hoops are winning.
Do I think there is some mustachioed villain working behind the scenes and in the shadows of the replay room in Birmingham or in the off-season AD meetings? Nope. Of course not.
But the simple truth for two power five conference title games is that everyone in the Pac-12 and the Big 12 makes way, Way, WAY more money with USC and TCU wins.
As they say, follow the money.
USC minus-2.5 over Utah. The over feels doable here too if we’re being honest. Still, laying less than the magic number of three is critical for a Trojans team that must win to get to the playoff. Side question: Shouldn’t Lincoln Riley be getting more CoY love?
TCU minus-2.5 over Kansas State. Speaking of CoY conversations, what about Sonny Dykes, the TCU boss who like Riley is in his first year at his alphabet program and is also one win away from a playoff bludgeoning in the semifinals. In truth, the only thing that gives me pause here is that this line is ONLY 2.5. Which makes me wonder what Vegas knows, which makes me wonder what I don’t know (yes Spy, that list is long and distinguished), which makes me wonder why I even gamble in the first place, which makes me long for simpler days. Speaking of simpler days, I watch a lot of TVLand when my TV is not on sports. And brother, the number of old-school TV shows that now run the “This show was made in a different time culturally and some images may be offensive” type of messaging is quite large. "Bonanza." "Gunsmoke." "M*A*S*H." Heck, Klinger was cross-dressing in an effort to show he was certifiably crazy to get kicked out of the Army, and that role turned Jamie Farr into a game-show regular and a host of a prominent LPGA tournament. Wow. And wow, what a tangent. Pick the Frogs.
North Carolina plus-7.5 over Clemson. UNC has the better QB. Clemson is as motivated as a 12-year-old going to his aunt’s house — the one that does not have Wi-Fi — for Sunday supper. I think the under is in play too, but after watching that Clemson offense spit up all over itself in the second half at South Carolina, should they be giving more than a TD to anyone?
Michigan-Purdue under 52. Research alert: Did you know in Michigan’s last 13 games, the under is 9-3-1 for Coach Khaki’s crew. Hmmmmmm. Now add in the simple fact that Michigan only needs to win — no style points needed — and has some banged up folks. If you must play a side, play the Wolverines early because a 24-3 halftime lead likely will be a 30-13 second-half snoozer.
Troy minus-8.5 over Coastal Carolina. Fact a) CCU is without its best player, quarterback and team leader. Fact b) CCU has been dealing with coaching whispers and drama. Fact c) Troy is better than you know, going 10-2 overall and against the number this season. Fact d) this conference championship game is at Troy’s home field. Yes please.
Ohio plus-2 over Toledo. Oh you lovely Bobcats. In the Plays of the Day, we have been an Ohio train-rider, so we can inform you directly that the Bobcats have won seven straight and covered in eight in a row. So these ‘Cats have been putting the c-a-s in cash. Ride ‘em till they throw you, right John Dutton.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread (60%)
This season: 33-37-2 against the spread (47.1%)
"Yellowstone" catch-up
OK, been covered up and have let our “Yellowstone” chats lapse a touch.
Like many of you who have emailed, I am not best pleased with the first few weeks of Season 5.
First, Beth is exhausting. In fact, she’s so over the top now, I’m actually pulling for Jamie a little, you know?
Second, how dumb was Rip and Co. trying to hide the wolf killing? That’s one of those mistakes you try to explain to your kids that it’s understandable and if you fess up when it happens, no big whoop. But you cover it up and lie, then Katie bar the door. Side question: Who is Katie and why is she in charge of blocking the entrance? Discuss.
Third, I get the “I’m rancher John Dutton, I’m not a politician” but does he really have to fire everyone who has a desk in Helena? Yes, there’s too much flab in our bureaucracy, and the over-the-top romanticism that developed out of the love of the government in “West Wing” was nauseating. But can’t we meet somewhere between President Bartlett thinking he’s the father of every American and Gov. Dutton thinking that one man can run the state of Montana?
Fourth, please, Please, PLEASE make Kayce and Mrs. Kayce less a fixture of this thing. She is a scene killer to be honest, and we all liked Kayce a heck of a lot more before we wasted several hours watching him in that sweat lodge thing. I'm begging you, Taylor Sheridan, on behalf of several million Americans.
I’m in “Yellowstone” but right now it’s because of your history — and time spent developing and learning that history — more than your present.
And yes, I had monster high hopes, so maybe the disappointment here is in a solid B when I expected an A (or better).
Thoughts?
Changes afoot(ball)
So couple of quick things here. (Zip it Spy)
First, the Rose Bowl looking around at possible different teams other than THE Ohio State — the highest-ranked Big Ten team not in the playoff — is quite telling.
One, the Granddaddy of them all is not more like a Step Uncle all things considered, especially if THE Ohio State would rather go to the Orange Bowl than go to Pasadena. Again.
Second, that could mean UT is headed to the Cotton Bowl, which is annoying some folks, but getting the Group of Five team — likely Tulane — and being a big favorite to get win 11 should be fine, right?
Third, the Rose Bowl relenting on its traditional match-up and reports of it relenting on its tradition 5 p.m. New Year’s Day kick, sure point to the expansion of the play sooner rather than later. Which means here’s betting the 2024 season.
And that would make this weekend over-the-top crazy for all of the multi-loss underdogs in conference title games.
Because LSU, Clemson or UNC, K-State, and even stinky Purdue would have a path to the playoff with a win this weekend.
The Pac-12 winner would be in and the Pac-12 likely would get two.
But expanding to 12 only means more in terms of math, because it does not mean more in terms of fair or more equity between the conferences.
With 12 and no upsets this weekend, your playoff would be Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC getting byes.
The first round of the playoff would have (12) Tulane at (5) THE Ohio State. Depending on how far K-State and or Utah falls after a title game loss, the 11 spot becomes the flex point.
Is it two-loss Washington, who did not get to a title game or a four-loss K-State or Utah? And a four-loss team in the playoff without a conference title seems flawed on its face if you ask me.
So let’s assume 10-2 Washington moves to 10 and whichever four-loss team that plays best in the Big 12 or Pac-12 conference title gets the 11 seed and travels to Alabama in the 6-11 game.
Yes, I’ve been against the playoff because of how I believe it will devalue the best regular season in sports. But looking at the scenario this year, a 12-team playoff will devalue the playoff, because if the conference title games go the way they are supposed to, we are going to be forced to pick between some really bad choices to fill out 12 teams.
And the first round of games in a 12-team bracket with this year’s scenarios are fugly.
THE Ohio State minus-31 at home in the snow against Tulane. Alabama minus-21 at home against a four-loss K-State. UT minus-18.5 at homes against Washington. Clemson minus-3 at home against Penn State.
It also allows — in terms of conspiracy theories — that Georgia would make way more money and still get a bye with LSU winning the SEC title game because that would mean four league teams in the 12-team draw.
(Side note: I meant to include some of the futbol changes being discussed for the next World Cup — pods going from four teams to three, pregame penalty kicks in preliminary rounds for bonus points in case of a draw, et al. — but hey, I got wordy.)
This and that
— I think LeBron can be rather blustery at times, and assuredly self-serving and promoting. But his rant last night about being asked about the Kyrie controversy in terms of the anti-Semitic social media posts but not being asked about the 1957 photo of Dallas owner Jerry Jones trying to prevent the integration of schools was thought-provoking to me. And I am guilty of that too, because I wrote about the Kyrie controversy and have not mentioned the Jerry Jones thing. But LeBron’s talking points miss a couple of critical key issues. Kyrie is a grown man making these statements and endorsements. Jerry Jones was 14 years old in 1957. LeBron wondering why he was not asked about it is fair. LeBron insinuating these are the same is far-fetched, especially since Kyrie’s comments after the fact added only more fuel to the controversy. Here’s Jones’ explanation when the Washington Post released the photo: "That was 65 years ago, I had no idea when I walked up there what I was doing, just a reminder to me how to improve and do things the right way.”
— Wow, took a couple on the chin with the Plays of the Day on Wednesday as Michigan State got waxed by Notre Dame and Nebraska scored at will on BC. Thanks to Georgia for a big first half though. You can register for our free afternoon email newsletter here.
— You know the rules. Here’s Paschall’s weekly picks column. Good stuff.
— Make no mistake about it, there will be a lot of barbs in the coming years between Ole Miss and Auburn when it comes to football and social media. Here’s a strong haymaker from Lane Kiffin about Hugh Freeze early. Round 1 to Kiffin.
— Speaking of college hoops, Jake Stephens is going to be a monster for UTC this year. Big guy dropped 27/10/6 as the Mocs soared in the second half to beat Tennessee Tech 81-74. Stephens scored 20 of his game-high total after the break.
— Rest easy Christine McVie. And thanks for all and your Fleetwood Mac cohorts gave music.
— Billboard’s top five artists of 2022 are, in order, Bad Bunny, Taylor Swift, Harry Styles, Drake and Morgan Wallen. So there’s that.
— Florida quarterback Jalen Kitna was arrested on child pornography charges. No es bueno.
Today’s questions
Fire away, because there’s more than a little listed above.
Plus, it’s an anything goes Thursday. And remember the mailbag.
As for today, Dec. 1, let’s review.
Richard Pryor would have been 82 today. He’s an all-timer, and personally I have Eddie Murphy as the best stand-up comedian of all time, but if you picked Pryor, I’d be OK with that too.
On this day in 1955, Rosa Parks was arrested for refusing to move to the back of the bus in Montgomery. Rosa Parks, hero.
On this day in 1953, the first Playboy magazine was published.
What’s the Rushmore of magazines? Does Playboy make it?
Go and remember the mailbag folks.