On February 23, 2019, the Auburn Tigers traveled to Rupp Arena, where they lost 80-53 to Kentucky. At that late moment of the regular season, AU stood 7-7 in the league and 18-9 overall. The next time Auburn lost was in the Final Four against Virginia, the Tigers’ storybook run at least partially ended by two highly questionable officiating calls inside the final 30 seconds.
Last Saturday, on that same Rupp Arena floor, Alabama lost 90-81 to UK after leading by 13 in the opening half. Now 7-7 in league play and 17-10 overall, Bama would appear to be headed for the proverbial NCAA Tournament bubble with but four regular-season games to play, beginning Tuesday night at Vanderbilt.
What’s the point of this? Just that the start of something great can always be just one win away. After that 27-point loss to Kentucky in 2019, Auburn won 12 straight, including four straight to win the SEC tourney and four more in the NCAA tourney, including knocking off the bluest of the bluebloods in their final three tournament wins – Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky, who also just happen to be, in no particular order, the three winningest programs in college hoops history.
So despite the lateness of the hour, the No. 24 Crimson Tide – which has already beaten unanimous No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 10 Baylor, No. 15 Houston, No. 17 Tennessee and No. 18 Arkansas – should probably still be considered a serious threat to make it to the tourney’s second weekend, if not further.
While AU has won its home games by an average of 15.5 ppg, its road victory margin when factoring in its two league losses is 3.7 ppg. And it should be noted that the Tigers have not and will not play at Kentucky and LSU, two of the most difficult road environments in the conference.
Then again, No. 6 Kentucky’s three SEC losses at Tennessee, LSU and Auburn leave it with a 1.8 ppg victory margin away from Rupp in league play and a 16.4 victory margin at home heading into Wednesday night’s visit from LSU. And one betting site on Monday listed the Wildcats as the No. 2 betting choice to win it all behind only Gonzaga.
Check the SEC standings on 2-22-22 and you have nine of 14 teams at or above .500 in league play and 11 of 14 with winning overall records. Not all of those nine will wind up in the NCAA Tournament, but ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has six in the field – Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Bama – with Florida barely out, though that bracket was drawn before the Gators stunned Auburn on Saturday.
As for what league games over the rest of the regular season could alter that scenario, let’s focus on these five:
No. 1 – Alabama at Vanderbilt on Tuesday night: Now 7-7, the Tide can’t afford to lose to a dangerous Vandy team that won’t make the Big Dance without winning the SEC tourney.
No. 2 – Auburn at Tennessee on Saturday: Both these teams will make the NCAA tourney, but another road loss by the Tigers would probably knock them off the No. 1 seed line for March Madness.
No. 3 – Florida at Vanderbilt, Tuesday, March 1: For Florida to feel good about a bid, it almost certainly needs to win this one in order to have any chance at a 9-9 or 10-8 conference mark.
No. 4 – LSU at Arkansas on Wednesday, March 2: With a date at Kentucky on tap for this Wednesday, the Tigers really need to beat the Hogs to avoid finishing league play with at least nine losses.
No. 5 – Alabama at LSU, Saturday, March 5: If the Tide enters this game with nine wins, it’s probably already in the field. LSU, however, may really need this one to avoid a losing league mark.
When Auburn lost to Kentucky by 27 in Rupp, Pearl told his team to forget about the season to that point, that “our goals are all still attainable.” Six weeks later the Tigers had reached their first-ever Final Four.
“We just have to worry about today,” he said, “and getting ready to make sure we are ready to play tomorrow.”
Otherwise, the basketball tomorrows you hope for never come.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.