Wow, where do we start?
Deep breaths, deep breaths.
Let's handle our business first.
Rushmore of draft — NFL draft, draft dodger, draft beer, "Backdraft" (a fine Kurt Russell flick with a star-studded ensemble).
Rushmore of code — "We're using code names" from "Raising Arizona," Morse code, Area Code (remember when we didn't have to use those on almost every call) and DiVinci Code.
Rushmore of female comedians — Ball, Burnett, Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Mary Tyler Moore (and the last spot was contentious, because Betty White, Tina Fey and even Roseanne and Bea Arthur could make a case).
Rushmore of 'horse' — Trojan Horse, 'H-O-R-S-E,' horseplay and the horse head put in Jack Woltz' bed about 30 minutes into "The Godfather."
Here's Paschall on UT having a top-10 pick for the first time since Eric Berry was available and how Thursday's first round passed without Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt hearing their names called.
We got an unofficial contest winner in Andrew W., who got five of the six "Feeling the draft while drinking a draft" questions spot on. Several folks, including Mark W., Terry S. and LP got four right. Even more were dialed in to the Bijan Robinson-to-the-Falcons pick. But Andrew W.'s big winner was nailing the number of SEC players picked with 9.
No one out of the 58 entries had the correct "3" for the number of first-round QBs. Which leads us to a draft-heavy mailbag.
From a bunch of you
Jay,
Heard you follow the draft. Who were your winners and losers from (Thursday's) first round?
Gang,
Buckle up, but before we get into a 'way-too-lengthy' diatribe about the first round, let's remember this:
Grades at this point are relatively meaningless because we do not know if Bryce Young is a better NFL QB1 than CJ Stroud. I will try to focus on the important aspects of the draft, and most of those in terms of my determination of winner and loser is based on value. And even that is influenced by perception.
But there are other factors are work, and with that, let's do some first-round winners and losers.
Winner: Houston Texans. The price to move back up to 3 was steep. Houston sent 2023 picks 12 and 33 and a '24 first and third to get pick No. 3 and pick 105. Clearly the prize in Houston's eye was getting Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson at 3. Anderson is a monster talent and a great teammate, but that's a lot of capital. The reason I list the addition of CJ Stroud — who many think was the best QB in the draft — and Anderson is a win despite the high cost is Houston gave its fanbase a reason to care and something to believe in. And in truth, if Stroud is above average as a rookie, it's not like it's going to take 12-plus wins to contender in the AFC South. And personally, even as an Auburn grad, I think Anderson is one of those franchise-changers that no one will blink at the price in five years.
Loser: Will Levis. Wow, where to start? OK, we'll start here: It was impossible not to feel awful for him sitting there as pick after pick after pick came across and his free fall became the biggest sports story and social media topic in the country. And hey, maybe he can turn this into the motivation that Aaron Rodgers used after his free fall back in 2005 from top-five to 24th overall picks.
Winners: Every team that avoided reaching for Levis, who truly had too many flaws and an interception tendency that was impossible to ignore on film. Levis' presence — along with a few others we'll get to in a moment — make all the preparations and trade whispers heading into round 2 amazingly interesting to me.
Loser: Mel Kiper Jr. The perfect hair is retreating so quickly it must be French. Plus, while Kiper was his usually super-prepared self, his projections — Levis as the top overall pick — were laughable in retrospect. And when sidekick/antagonist Todd McShay made the rare appearance with the A team on ESPN's coverage, he dominated Kiper in almost every discussion. Speaking of that, the decision not to have McShay more prominently involved — as well as adding the Jonas Brothers to another broadcast and sorely underusing Louis Riddick — make the producers L contenders too. (Hey, ESPN, more Riddick, less Booger. 'Preciate it. Signed America.)
Winners: Philadelphia. Wow. What a great design and strategy. Team gets a gift pick in the top 10 after making a Super Bowl run and how do they attack it? By being aggressive and getting the potential best player in the draft at 9 and arguably the most athletic defensive front seven player we've seen since LT. Now know that the Eagles led the league in sacks last year and added Georgia moose Jalen Carter and super-dynamic Nolan Smith to a pass rush that will give every team it faces fits. Eagles have to be the NFC favorites to start the season. That gives the Athens Eagles Carter and Smith to go with Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. If the Eagles draft Stetson Bennett on Saturday, Bearddawg may have to hawk his Atlanta Falcons gear.
Losers: Detroit. In terms of value, at least the Lions dealt back to get Jahmyr Gibbs, the super-fast former Dalton High and Alabama RB, at 12. But the Lions almost assuredly could have had Gibbs a dozen (or more) picks later, and after Bijan Robinson, the interchangeable traits and talents at that position — a position where the Lions already have depth — seem clear. Plus, the comps are clear for the Lions' two first-round picks since they a) wanted a RB1 with Gibbs but could have had Robinson at 6 and b) picked Jack Campbell, an overachieving Iowa LB when some monster edge rushers like Nolan Smith were still on the board.
Winner: Baltimore's immediate future. The Ravens bit the bullet and inked Lamar Jackson to a risky extension. Not sure if that's going to be a grand idea long-term. But in the here and now (what's up Kenny Chesney), a healthy and happy Jackson makes the Ravens a contender. And adding speedster WR Zay Flowers should make Jackson almost as pleased as his five-year, $260-million extension.
Loser: Miami. No first rounder because they violated league tampering rules on swings and misses for Sean Payton and Tom Brady. Ouch-standing.
From several of you
How did you think (my team) did tonight?
Gang
I got a slew of these, and of the ones not addressed above, I will mention the ones that came in specifically asking for one team. Deal? Deal.
Atlanta. In truth, I do not love the Bijan Robinson pick. I think RB value can be added much later, and I say that with the knowledge that Robinson is widely considered the most talented prospect at the position since Saquan Barkley. But if we use that comp, is spending an 8 — considering the Falcons' plethora of needs at edge rusher and o-line — worth what Saquan has been: 60 games (in five years, so out of a possible 82, or less than 75%), 4,249 rushing yards and 29 rushing TDs, plus 247 catches for 1,820 and eight receiving scores. If Robinson becomes a home run-hitter — but Tyler Allgiers and Cordarrelle Patterson were pretty dang good juggling the RB1 job last year — I will be tickled. But I thought the needs and the available names — especially Jalen Carter or any O-Lineman not named Paris Johnson — would have been much better fits.
Tennessee. Taking a Northwestern O-Line with a last name like one of the SNL Chicago Superfans — "Ditka!" — is about as exciting as eating your broccoli. But you know what? Eating your broccoli is really good for you, and adding big people who are nasty and enjoy blocking is really good for you too.
Pittsburgh. I loved what the Steelers did. Loved it. Broderick Jones is a modern-era star-in-the-waiting at tackle because of his length and feet. Plus, here's betting the Steelers War Room folks were a) hoping Jones was going to be on the board at when they moved up to get him and b) were prepared to take Joey Porter Jr., the Penn State cornerback and son of Steelers royalty if Jones was not there. And as luck would have it, Porter Jr. is still on the board heading into tonight, when the Steelers have the first pick in round 2, provided they do not deal it for a massive haul to someone who may want a QB with Levis or Hendon Hooker still available.
From Hank
What happens in round 2?
Hank
Thanks for playing the contest. And that goes for all you folks who entered.
As I just mentioned, the phone in the Steelers' war room has to be ringing off the hook, and the ultimate haul — in trade currency or in terms of getting a dude with that pick — from Chicago for Chase Claypool will be a trade win for the Steelers for sure.
I think someone moves up for Levis. I still think Hooker is better than Levis. (Side question: Anyone else want the Raiders to draft the former UT star QB if for no other reason than the New York Post headline possibility of "Las Vegas added a new Hooker" that is out there?)
I personally am surprised to see the following dudes still on the board, and depending on teams' needs, could see more than a few deals flying around in the early parts of tonight's second round:
— Penn State corner Joey Porter, Jr.
— Alabama safety/corner Brian Branch.
— Tennessee WRs Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman.
— Both the QBs listed above.
— Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer.
— Georgia Tech defensive end Keion White.
From Mark
Is Green Bay's 2 Super Bowl titles the worst ROI ever after 34 straight years of Favre and Rodgers?
Mark
Put that way, it's pretty fair to assume that, especially when you put the 'straight' aspect in that.
Is two titles in that time, better or worse than only one ring in the 1998-to-2019 run of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck?
It's a great question, and when you add in Bart Starr — and even the short, highlight-filled tenure of Don Majkowski — man, the Packers faithful have not had a lot of seasons with poor QB play.
Hey, Jordan Love? No pressure or expectations dude.
From A reader
Jay a friend pointed me to your picks column and this week they have cost me man. Maybe you should stick to movie quotes and failed attempts at being funny.
You suck! And when it comes to free picks — YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR!
A Reader
For context, this came last Friday at the end of a week-to-10-day stretch that saw us lose a bunch of units.
We went from being plus-50 or so units to under plus-40 units, so A Reader and others were quick to lament the low times.
And for more context, sports bettors rarely comment in high times but are quick to lament in the low times. I get that. And I do it too.
But sweet buckets of rebounding like Wes Unseld.
After getting this email last Friday, well, the picks have delivered. Big time. A 6-1 weekend followed. We had a 2-1 Monday, a 1-1-1 Tuesday and a 3-1 Wednesday. So that was a six-day run of 12-4-1, which is a ton better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
And while A Reader may not have been here for the entire run, the body of work can be attested to by some of the regulars around here and we have been as transparent as possible.
And last night was arguably the best picking night we've had since going 7-0 on prop bets in the Super Bowl.
In the NBA we had Boston-Atlanta over 230.5. A win for 0.9 units.
We had Trae Young 30-or-more points at plus-200. A win for 2.0 units.
We had Hendon Hooker to be picked in round 1. A loss at minus-1.0 units.
We had Bijan Robinson to be selected before the 11th pick at plus-110. A win for 1.1 units.,
We had more than 14.5 defensive players in the first round at plus-250, DraftKings. A win for 2.5 units.
And we had Devon Witherspoon as the first CB drafted and Dalton Kincaid as the first TE drafted parlay at plus-250. A win for 2.5 units.
So that's a tidy 8.0 units in gains last night.
Man, I love the draft. But you know this.
Have a great weekend friends, and yes, I will be back on Twitter (@jgreesontfp) tonight for rounds 2 and 3.