Wanna know if your favorite NFL team just had a good draft? Instead of listening to the usual suspects say the usual things and do everything to advance their own agendas, just listen to the wise guys.
Yep, the only agenda the folks in Vegas have is to make money, and that means — concerning the draft — adjusting future NFL bets so as to not make anything too easy.
So while Mel Kiper, Pete Prisco and others lambaste the Atlanta Falcons for the unholy sin of taking a running back in the top 10, the oddsmakers out west quietly shut them up. DraftKings, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, for instance, raised the Falcons’ 2023 over-under win total from 7.5 to 8.5 following the draft.
Would any player available at No. 8 not named Bijan Robinson have also moved that needle? And, as potentially good as other draft picks Matthew Bergeron, Zachary Harrison, Clark Phillips III, DeMarcco Hellams and Jovaughn Gwyn might turn out, the Vegas bump was all about Bijan.
As we said before the draft, Robinson doesn’t just make the run game better. His big-play presence eases the pressure on second-year QB Desmond Ridder. If defenses have to allocate more bodies to stop the run game, receivers Drake London, Mack Hollins, Kyle Pitts, et all will have more room to get open.