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Fab 4 picks
Welp, how was your week?
Let’s just say that after 12 months of Jimmy Two Times (Get the papers, get the papers) not wanting to take my calls or FanDuel not wanting to check my password, this week has been Titanic.
Not “titanic” like, “wow, that was titanic — that was awesome.”
More like, “Wow, we’re sinking like the Titanic.”
We make picks every weekday in our Jay’s Plays of the Day email. We promised from the start two things:
— My honest efforts to try to find the best angles, advantages or simple gut feel on each pick I can share.
— Full transparency, win or lose, and lately we’re doing a lot more of the latter than the former.
We went 1-3 on Saturday college football. Posted 0-3 on the NFL on Sunday. Went 0-3 on Monday. Tuesday saw a 2-3. Wednesday night we went 1-3.
Yikes.
But, like Robert Johnson leaving the Crossroads, we still gotta keep pickin’ friends.
Virginia Tech minus-2.5 over Syracuse. Virginia Tech has taken a noticeable step back as a program in recent years. Still, night games in Blacksburg are tough for opposing teams. Plus, the Hokies are 2-1 — the lone loss being at Tallahassee — since changing QB1s. Syracuse has lost its last three by an average of 37-8.
UCF-West Virginia over 58.5. Similar styles and similar strengths, as each team is among the top 35 nationally in almost every offensive rushing metric. And they have similar weaknesses, since each is in the bottom 40 against FBS foes against the run. Hmmmmm. Expected close game? Porous defenses? Prediction, points.
App State minus-16.5 over Southern Miss. There was a time when no one wanted to face Southern Miss. I was at Auburn when the Golden Eagles spoiled homecoming on the Plains. That time has passed. Everyone wants to play Southern Miss now. USM is 1-6 overall and that 1 was the opener against Alcorn State. Since, Southern Miss is 0-6 straight-up and 0-6 against the number, with an average margin of defeat of more than 24 points.
Mississippi State plus-6.5 over Auburn. Simply put, any offense as constipated as Auburn’s should not be laying a TD to any conference opponent. Period. And when a) that conference opponent just held a KJ Jefferson-led offense to a field goal, and b) the over/under on the game is below 42, a TD cushion either way in this one is simply too many.
Tennessee minus-3.5 over Kentucky. This feels like half of what it should be, no? And yes, UK was off last week as UT got thumped by Alabama. But a thumping is easier to rebound from than a heart-breaker, in my opinion, and I believe UT has more dudes.
Cal-USC over 66. The Trojans are playing, which means high-flying offense. And olé defense.
Last week: 2-3 against the spread (40%)
This season: 28-21-1 against the spread (57.1%)
Wemby hype
Seven-foot-4 unicorn Victor Wembanyama made his NBA debut last night when his Spurs hosted the Dallas Mavericks.
It’s not often when Luka Doncic takes the floor — and posts a triple-double (in a win no less) — and becomes the second story line.
But Wemby was impossible not to watch.
Dude is gangly, yes, but he also is the size of Kareem with point guard skills and three-point range.
In some ways, he’s one of the three most intriguing and different sports stars in team sports right now.
Wemby, Mahomes and Shohei are all going to be must-see TV for the foreseeable future because there’s no limits to what they could accomplish.
To that end, yes, Luka — who is a dude and incredibly fun to watch for me — notched a triple-double last night.
But how about this: How many folks out there have a better chance at joining the elite quadruple-double club than Wembanyama, who likely will get a double-digit game in blocks at some point this season.
Heck Wemby may already be one of the top 10 defenders in the league.
And he’s played one game.
Amazing.
Michigan state secrets
We all know the growing controversy with the University of Michigan football program, which is being accused of improper sign stealing.
Now comes news that Michigan State has ruled that fired coach Mel Tucker violated the school’s sexual conduct policy, which led to his termination.
C’mon guys, let’s figure this thing out.
And that likely means MSU can make a case that Tucker does not get his heavy buyout, and whether you think that had a role in the ruling, well, that certainly could be the case.
As for the Michigan thing, it sure feels like there is something much bigger and darker that we don’t know of yet, right?
I mean everyone tries to steal signs. And this seems a little over the top, even from a program run by Coach Khaki, who is a lot over the top.
But I really get the feeling that there will be more cleats to drop from Ann Arbor.
This and that
— You know the rules. Here’s Paschall’s picks column.
— Keep your eyes peeled for the release of the next chapter of “Bets and Ballgames” with Brian Edwards and myself later today.
— Prayers for the folks suffering in Maine this morning. What a nightmare.
— It’s official: Dusty Baker is calling a career.
Today’s questions
Anything goes on a Thursday. You know this.
So fire away.
As for today, Oct. 26, let’s review.
“The Terminator” premiered on this day in 1984. That one holds up well.
The Shootout at the OK Corral happened on this day in 1881.
Pat Sajak is 77 today.
Keith Urban is 56. That’s a pass for me.
But does he make the musical Rushmore of Keith, which is a pretty strong musical name all things considered?