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It’s Draft Day
True or false on a Thursday, “Draft Day” the movie was underrated. Discuss.
It’s Draft Day, and that means a slew of things.
Adam Schefter and Mel Kiper are going to need multiple assistants with multiple iPhone chargers over the next 10 hours.
We will hear the words and phrases like “fast riser” or “whispers” or “smokescreen” or “11th hour” dozens of times over the next 10 hours.
Mel will eat pumpkin pie at some point and his hair will not move.
And then, when he walks to the stage, Roger Goodell will get booed.
It’s part of the charm of this event, but it’s not the best part.
The best parts are, in no specific order, the optimistic joy of believing your team just landed a key piece in building a contender and/or the angst-ridden recoil when you team over spends on an RB or drafts a future-building piece when immediate help is needed at pass rusher.
(Yes, I am looking right at you, Falcons GM Terry Fontenot.)
But those knee-jerk reactions in the moment normally trend more toward jerk, because great picks in the moment and frustrations in immediate response almost always move to the median with time and perspective.
Of course, I will have a ton of immediate reactions tonight. I will be on Twitter (some call it X; I call it Twitter) at @jgreesontfp and talking all things draft live.
I love the draft. You know this.
But the emotion of the moment should always be trumped by the perspective of time.
Deal?
(That said, Fontenot, you better take a pass rusher or I am driving to Flowery Branch and we are having words. Don’t make me come down there, Terry.)
Draft beliefs
To the above idea, I think there should be a baseline set for expectations in the draft, and that baseline should be defined by pre-draft predictions.
No, this is not a mock draft per se, but a list of five facts I believe that shape some of the best picks or some of the riskiest picks heading into tonight’s first round.
Which also leads me to the most underused word in draft coverage and analysis.
It’s not speed or athleticism or quick-twitch or hand-size. (Know what they say about QBs with big hands right? They wear big gloves.)
It’s value. Value is the difference between great drafts and good drafts. It’s also the difference between bad drafts and OK drafts.
If you take a player you love at 4 but he could have been picked at 14 or even 24, that’s not good value, even if the player becomes a starter. It’s about who was left on the board and whether you can maximize your spots and your selections.
Tonight, I hope your team and mine — Terry, I’m serious about driving down there — finds true value, especially in round 1 because tonight needs to be the additions of guys who are not filling voids but who will be difference-makers for the next half a decade.
With that in mind, here’s the mix of guys at various spots projected in tonight’s round 1 that offer the mix of All-Pro potential and will offer value.
Jayden Daniels should be QB1. Washington will get CJ Stroud 2.0 if Daniels falls to them at 2.
Malik Nabers should be WR1. Arizona looks like it’s going to pick Marvin Harrison Jr. and that’s fine, but Nabors is going to be Jordan Jefferson- and Ja’Marr Chase-level great. Heck, this LSU site has Nabers listed as the best WR to ever come from Red Stick, and that’s an impressive position group team photo.
(Side note: I had not heard this story until read draft prep, but I love this about Nabers’ commitment to the game. Nabers was long considered a Mississippi State commitment and some of the LSU assistants had to talk Coach O into taking a chance on an in-state kid. The reason it was a chance was because Nabers was declared ineligible as a senior after transferring schools. But Nabers spent that senior year — while not playing a single Friday night — with his new high school scout team helping them get ready for the best player on the opposing roster, whether that mean Nabers spent the week playing QB, RB, WR, DB or even DE. Dude is going to be a star.)
(Side note: No, Vader has not hacked into my TFP account. I think those cats are going to be big-timers.)
Brock Bowers. More on this in a minute, but Bowers is truly a more athletic Travis Kelce and a smarter Gronk. Any questions?
Byron Murphy. I mentioned the Texas defensive tackle and how he has slipped down draft boards. (And yes, I would love for the Falcons to trade back and scoop up Murphy.) That slide is because he is viewed as undersized for a defensive tackle in this NFL. But let’s check some comps:
Murphy’s size is 6-1, 297. He ran a 40 in the 4.8s, he ran the 10-yard split in 1.69, his broad jump was better than 9 feet and his vertical was 33 inches. He benched 225 28 times.
Another undersized defensive tackle entered the draft a decade ago at 6-1, 285. He ran a 4.68 40 with a 1.63 10-yard split. His broad jump was better than 9 feet and his vertical was 32. He benched 225 35 times.
Yes, the second prospect was some undersized DT named Aaron Donald, who is headed to Canton.
Draft predictions
So, yes, we are draft heavy today, and we can get a little gasbaggy about it I suppose.
But so it goes.
As the words start to mount, here are five fearless predictions about tonight’s first round:
First, other than Caleb Williams to the Bears, which is more formality than forecasting at the moment, there is no safer pick in terms of need meeting talent and opportunity than the Titans taking Joe Alt, the Notre Dame tackle, at 7.
Second, in his return to Michigan, I think Jim Harbaugh is going to be the star of the first round by dealing the 6 pick to Minnesota for picks 11 and 23 so the Vikings can take a QB1. Then at 11, Harbaugh takes Brock Bowers, so he gets the guy he wants and extra first-round pick (this year and maybe next). That’s value, friends.
The QB intrigue will dominate this draft. Yes, that’s true every year I suppose, but there have been three years in the modern draft era where QBs went 1-2-3 (1971, 1999, 2021) and only one time have six QBs been drafted in round 1 (1983). Both could happen tonight. Williams is going one. There is talk that Daniels is sliding because of his slight frame. Drake Maye and JJ McCarthey are bound for the top-10. I think Bo Nix is better than Michael Penix, and there’s an argument to be that Spencer Rattler may be NFL better than both Nix and Penix. The intrigue will start early of course, but the intrigue late is almost as intriguing because if are a QB needy team, trading into picks 28-32 late tonight gives you a full extra year of contract control over a QB1.
Despite his absence from almost every mock draft, Texas WR Xavier Worthy will hear his name called tonight. Simply put, Worthy ran a 4.21 40 at the combine, and there are GMs who are moths to the glow of flaming 40 times.
The SEC has the most players drafted tonight. (OK, that was a dunk, but hey, I’m running short on time.)
Thoughts, and remember I will be on Twitter for almost all of tonight’s first round (depending on what time I get back from middle school softball).
This and that
— Big day at the 5-at-10 compound Wednesday. Lil’ 5-at-10 got his driver’s license. (“He don’t even have a license Lisa.” True or false, “Weird Science” is John Hughes’ most underrated work.) Big day.
— Bad beat for Plays’ picks on the Braves Wednesday night. Good night in the NBA, but man, that Marlins’ ninth-inning rally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
— Don’t look now but Auburn football is doing some work in the portal and landed a former Penn State WR who likely will be an immediate contributor.
— This Iowa defensive back who is projected to be a first-round pick tonight in the NFL draft said he could beat Caitlin Clark in 1-on-1. And if forced to wager on it, no matter how much of Clarkster I am, I’d bet on the DB.
— Side question: If Beyonce has the BeeHive, and Taylor has the Swifties, what should we Clarksters call ourselves?
— I am a gun owner. I am a believer of the Second Amendment. I also fully support Justin Robertson and his crew for not endorsing the Tennessee state bill to allow public school teachers to arm themselves in the classroom.
— It was mentioned on here earlier this week, but the Heisman trust restored Reggie Bush’s Heisman. Whatever.
Today’s questions
It’s the ol’ AGT — anything goes Thursday — and we could offer a slew of draft questions:
Who will be the offensive rookie of the year in 2024? What about defensive?
Who do you want your team to draft — and yes, DD, I have seen more than a few predict that the Colts are looking to trade up and land Bowers?
Ask and answer any draft questions and remember our Twitter barrage coming later tonight.
As for today, April 25, let’s review.
Al Pacino is 84. I am certain we have done his Rushmore.
Adam Silver is 62. We’ve done Rushmore of commissioners too.
Hank Azaria is 60.
Ginger Rogers died on this day in 1995.
Rushmore of people with the same name as a spice.
Go and remember the mailbag.