Losing three-time NFL MVP Tom Brady didn’t loosen the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ hold on the NFC South.
Baker Mayfield took over behind center after Brady’s retirement, revived his career and led the Bucs to their third straight division title and a playoff victory last season.
Now another veteran quarterback enters the division, along with two new head coaches, including one who helped Mayfield play up to his potential.
Kirk Cousins joined the Atlanta Falcons, who gave the four-time Pro Bowl quarterback $100 million guaranteed to leave the Minnesota Vikings, then drafted the player they hope is his eventual replacement, selecting Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick in April.
The Falcons also hired Raheem Morris to replace Arthur Smith as head coach, bringing the former Bucs head coach and Falcons assistant back to the division.
The Carolina Panthers hired Dave Canales, who spent last season working as an offensive coordinator with Mayfield in Tampa Bay. If Canales can do for second-year pro Bryce Young what he did with Mayfield and previously Geno Smith with the Seattle Seahawks, the Panthers should get back on the winning track.
Then there are the New Orleans Saints. They haven’t reached the playoffs since 2020, when Sean Payton was still their coach and Drew Brees was still taking the snaps. They’re 16-18 in two seasons under Dennis Allen, and the pressure is on veteran quarterback Derek Carr to get it done in his second year in New Orleans.
Here’s a team-by-team look at the NFC South in the AP’s predicted order of finish.
Buccaneers (9-8 overall, 4-2 in division, first in 2023 final standings): General manager Jason Licht did a masterful job of retaining key free agents from a team that surprised everyone with its success during the 2023 season, former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ second as the head coach in Tampa Bay.
Licht re-signed Mayfield, star receiver Mike Evans, All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., linebacker Lavonte David, defensive end Will Gholston and kicker Chase McLaughlin. The Bucs also gave left tackle Tristan Wirfs a lucrative extension and brought back safety Jordan Whitehead.
First-round pick Graham Barton takes over as a rookie at center for an offensive line that needs to open up running lanes for Rachaad White to help Mayfield. Liam Cohen replaced Canales as offensive coordinator, and his main priority is to keep Mayfield producing.
Bowles’ defense, led by David, Winfield and nose tackle Vita Vea, will be tough. If Mayfield and the offensive stars stay healthy, the Bucs could make this a four-peat of division crowns.
Falcons (7-10, 3-3, third): Atlanta went all-out in the offseason to try to end a six-year playoff drought, starting with the addition of Cousins.
He’s 36, coming off a torn Achilles tendon and has only one playoff win in his career. However, Cousins was playing well before he got injured midway through last season, posting a 103.8 passer rating. He won’t have Justin Jefferson catching his passes as he did in Minnesota, but he has playmakers. In the three drafts before Penix, Atlanta’s first-round picks were running back Bijan Robinson (2023), receiver Drake London (2022) and tight end Kyle Pitts (2021). The Falcons also signed wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Charlie Woerner.
Atlanta bolstered its defense during training camp, adding four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Matthew Judon and two-time Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons to join All-Pro second-team safety Jessie Bates and star cornerback A.J. Terrell.
At least one NFL team with a new coach has reached the playoffs every year since the 2006 season. The Falcons are favorites to win the NFC South with Morris, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.
Saints (9-8, 4-2, second): The Saints turned their eyes to San Francisco and hired 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s lead assistant, Klint Kubiak, to install a new offensive scheme that could benefit Carr and the talent around him.
They retained only one offensive assistant coach from last season and hope a fresh 49ers-like approach will make a big difference for their veteran quarterback, running back Alvin Kamara, receiver Chris Olave and other key players in the unit.
Carr got a huge contract when he signed with the Saints last year after being released by the Las Vegas Raiders and has usually put up decent numbers, but he’s 0-1 in the playoffs a decade into his pro career.
Either way, expect defense to be the Saints’ strength. Linebacker Demario Davis is among the league’s best, and cornerback Marshon Lattimore leads an excellent group in the secondary.
Panthers (2-15, 1-5, fourth): They were terrible last season, when each of their wins came by two points in low-scoring affairs. Their hire of Canales, one of the league’s brightest young coaches, instantly made them better.
They may not make a dramatic turnaround, but they should be more competitive.
Young, the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, struggled as a rookie in an offense that didn’t give him much help. Canales’ top priorities will be making sure the offensive line protects Young and implementing a system that gives him opportunities to showcase the skills that helped him win a Heisman Trophy at Alabama.
If Young proves he’s a franchise quarterback this season, it won’t matter how many games the Panthers win, because they’ll have a foundation for the future and can really start building.