After a wild few weeks, the top of the ticket is once again set for Democrats and Republicans. Polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck. Over the last several years, we’ve seen presidential elections decided by slimmer and slimmer margins, and 2024 will likely be no different.
There’s one thing that links these historically close election results in recent years — and that’s the voting behavior of America’s moderate women, and particularly moderate white women.
There are 49 million moderate white women nationwide, and they make up a large percentage of the undecided bloc in key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They are movable, they are without a political home, they are looking for a candidate who speaks to them and their concerns.
Understanding this key voting bloc is one of the reasons I founded Galvanize Action — an organization committed to listening to and learning who these women are and why they vote the way they do.
Galvanize Action just released new research and data on what is top of mind for moderate women this election cycle and what they think about their options.
In a late July survey, 31% of moderate white women said they had not yet committed to a decision about who to vote for in the presidential election. Before President Joe Biden stepped aside, Galvanize Action took a look at how other candidates would compare to Trump. When it came to the top potential Democratic candidates, Harris performed the best — with 39% choosing Harris versus 42% choosing Trump. This result is within the margin of error, and it shows Harris is very much within striking distance of Trump among moderate white women. The research also showed they are very close in terms of candidate favorability as well, with 44% of moderate white women in Galvanize Action polling viewing Harris favorably, compared with 45% for Trump.
When asked to identify the top issue this election, an overwhelming majority said the economy. In fact, 42% of moderate women marked the economy as their No. 1 concern. In our research over the last year, this audience has specifically expressed increased anxiety around the economy as a result of the stress of putting food on the table, managing child care, running a household and generally serving as primary caregivers for their families.
A second key issue that moderate white women are basing their voting decisions on this election will be reproductive freedom. In the wake of the Dobbs decision, reproductive rights are at the forefront of women’s minds — with 75% saying this issue is important to them when casting their vote.
Finally, what I’ve learned in my work over the years with moderate women is that they’re sick of the division. Grievance-based rhetoric that pits us against each other and activates feelings of fear cannot be countered by doubling down with more hate, more fear and darker warnings of threat. They can and must be countered with hope to build that future.
Unsurprisingly, these are the key issues that a broad swath of voters care about — not just moderate women and moderate white women. Women of all races, ethnicities and backgrounds want economic stability, the freedom to make their own reproductive health care choices and the end of the harmful divisions that are tearing our country apart.
When it comes to moderate white women, though, they are still looking for their political home. The candidate who can speak to these issues they care about the most will come out victorious.
Jackie Payne, founder and executive director of Galvanize Action, is on the board of the Women and Justice Project.