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NFL combine performances not a perfect forecast for pro stardom

AP photo by Julio Cortez / Former University of Connecticut defensive back Byron Jones runs a drill at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis on Feb. 23, 2015. Jones covered a distance of 12 feet, 3 inches in the broad jump that year, setting a combine record for the event.
AP photo by Julio Cortez / Former University of Connecticut defensive back Byron Jones runs a drill at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis on Feb. 23, 2015. Jones covered a distance of 12 feet, 3 inches in the broad jump that year, setting a combine record for the event. AP photo by Julio Cortez / Former University of Connecticut defensive back Byron Jones runs a drill at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis on Feb. 23, 2015. Jones covered a distance of 12 feet, 3 inches in the broad jump that year, setting a combine record for the event.

Note: This story was updated on March 2 to note that Xavier Worthy broke the 40-yard dash record Saturday

Mike Mamula is both a legend and the main character of a cautionary tale when it comes to the NFL scouting combine.

He was among the first players to train specifically for the tests that prospects undergo, particularly the 40-yard dash that measures speed, the three-cone drill that calculates agility and the 225-pound bench press that gauges strength and stamina.

Mamula’s standout performance at the 1995 combine rocketed him into the first round of the NFL draft two months later, when the Philadelphia Eagles traded the 12th overall pick and two second-round selections to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so they could move up five spots and select the former Boston College defensive end at No. 7.

Mamula had a solid five-year career with the Eagles but never really lived up to the hype he had generated by acing the drills in Indianapolis, which helped turn the annual get-together of teams and talent into the televised spectacle it is today.

Although some prospects skip certain components of the combine, choosing instead to show off in more familiar surroundings at their college pro day or during individual team visits, the vast majority target their week in Indianapolis just like Mamula did. They train like Olympians, cutting carbs in hopes of shaving milliseconds off their times, jumping just a skosh farther or higher, or pumping out one more repetition on the weight bench.

Many of those who ace the drills will also follow Mamula’s path in the pros as more of a workout wonder than a gridiron great, illustrating anew the inexact nature of projecting professional success at the combine, where studs can prove duds and tumbles can be temporary.

Take Orlando Brown Jr., who tumbled from the first round on everybody’s mock draft into the third round in the actual draft in 2018 after managing just 14 reps on the 225-pound bench press in Indy and then lumbering through the 40-yard dash in 5.85 seconds. The former All-American for the Oklahoma Sooners was undeterred by his wretched week that included equally awful vertical and broad jumps, declaring: “I’ve been fat my whole life. I wish I was fast.”

All the 6-foot-8, 345-pound offensive tackle has done in the pros is plodded his way to a Super Bowl title with the Kansas City Chiefs, four Pro Bowl appearances and more than $57 million in career earnings.

Like Mamula, many of the top performers at the combine have found it much harder to master the game itself. Being the best at a drill doesn’t necessarily translate into successfully chasing down passes or passers.

For some players, their combine prowess proves to be the highlight of their careers. Others parlay it into stardom on Sundays.

Here’s a look at the top performances of all time (not including this year) in the NFL combine’s seven staple drills and how it translated on draft day and to the football field.

40-YARD DASH

4.22 seconds: John Ross III, receiver, Washington, 2017. Drafted ninth overall by the Cincinnati Bengals, Ross caught 11 touchdown passes and played in just 37 games in five NFL seasons, including a year with the New York Giants. Xavier Worthy, a former Texas Longhorns receiver, broke this record Saturday with a time of 4.21 seconds.

BENCH PRESS

49 repetitions: Stephen Paea, defensive tackle, Oregon State, 2011. A second-round pick by the Chicago Bears, he was a three-year starter for them. He also spent a year each in Washington, Cleveland and Dallas.

VERTICAL JUMP

45 inches (tie): Donald Washington, cornerback, Ohio State, 2009. A fourth-round pick, he spent three seasons in the NFL, all in Kansas City, and never intercepted a pass.

Chris Conley, receiver, Georgia, 2015. A third-round pick by Kansas City, Conley has spent 10 years in the NFL, including stints with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers. He has 16 career touchdowns.

BROAD JUMP

12 feet, 3 inches: Byron Jones, cornerback, Connecticut, 2015. The Dallas Cowboys made Jones the 27th overall pick, and he missed just four games in a solid seven-year career that finished with two seasons in Miami.

THREE-CONE DRILL

6.42 seconds: Jeff Maehl, receiver, Oregon, 2011. Undrafted, Maehl played three games in two seasons in Houston and in 24 games over two years in Philadelphia, where he posted his only career touchdown in 2013.

20-YARD SHUTTLE

3.81 seconds (tie): Jason Allen, cornerback, Tennessee, 2006. The 16th overall pick by the Miami Dolphins enjoyed a solid seven-year NFL career that included 15 interceptions and stints in Houston and Cincinnati.

Brandin Cooks, receiver, Oregon State, 2014. The 20th overall pick by the New Orleans Saints, Cooks’ spectacular 10-year career features 57 touchdown catches, including eight for the Cowboys last season at age 30.

10-YARD SPLIT

1.40 seconds: Chris Johnson, running back, East Carolina, 2008. Drafted 24th overall by the Titans, he ran for 2,006 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2009 and scored 55 times over a stellar 10-year career with the Titans, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals.

Whether prospects will eventually burn brightly or flame out, fans needing their football fix between the Super Bowl and draft weekend can at least catch a glimpse of what’s to come by watching what’s known to many as the “Underwear Olympics.”

“The 40s are the highlight for everybody,” said NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, “because you have history and you can compare what this guy ran this year to what said Hall of Famer ran in years past. … It’s an apples-to-apples comparison.”

If you want to see what this year’s edge rushers look like, tune into the vertical and broad jumps: “It’s an explosive movement, and it correlates pretty well,” Jeremiah said.

And for offensive linemen, pay attention to the 10-yard split and “how quickly they get out,” Jeremiah said. “Then when you get out to the fieldwork, one of the things to keep an eye on, you can find out who is really in shape, whose hands are on their hips, who is bending over, who has a really big gas tank and has been putting in work and is ready to go.”

Just know there are no guarantees things will look the same come Sundays in September.