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Thursday, November 12, 2026Nov 12

Who will win the Stanley Cup? The season, odds, math and probability collide on picking a favorite

FILE - Florida Panthers center Evan Rodrigues, left, reacts after scoring against Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, right, during the second period of an NHL hockey game, Nov. 16, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, file)
FILE - Florida Panthers center Evan Rodrigues, left, reacts after scoring against Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, right, during the second period of an NHL hockey game, Nov. 16, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, file) FILE - Florida Panthers center Evan Rodrigues, left, reacts after scoring against Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, right, during the second period of an NHL hockey game, Nov. 16, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, file)

Everybody’s got a hunch this time of year, a thought about the so-called Presidents’ Trophy “curse” or maybe a dark horse Stanley Cup pick.

Only one team of the 16 in the NHL playoffs gets to be champion, and even before the first round begins Saturday, there is rampant disagreement on who the favorite actually is.

Winnipeg and Washington were the top teams in the league all season, finishing atop the West and East, respectively, to earn home-ice advantage.. Florida is the defending champion looking for a third consecutive trip to the final. Dallas is the oddsmakers’ top selection, while some metrics favor Carolina.

What played out on the ice has collided with math, odds and probability in the debate over who will hoist the trophy in June.

“As great as the season has been for Winnipeg and Washington, I think most people would agree that there’s not one team out there that really kind of screams, ‘Oh, this is the team that should win the Stanley Cup this year,’” said Andy MacNeil, a hockey handicapper and host of The Puck Portfolio on Daily Faceoff. “It’s just one of those years where even the Toronto Maple Leafs could finally go all the way and get to a Stanley Cup Final because the Eastern Conference, just like the Western Conference, I think is wide open right now.”