LAS VEGAS — Ohio State ended the regular season with many questions about its football program under coach Ryan Day’s direction after the Buckeyes were upset by Big Ten border rival Michigan, 13-10, on Nov. 30 in Columbus.
Now the Buckeyes not only are in the College Football Playoff national championship game against Notre Dame on Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, they are the second-biggest favorites in the title game since the playoff began 10 years ago.
BetMGM Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook each had Ohio State favored by 9 1/2 points in its opening line Saturday. The only larger line for the championship game, according to Vegas Insider, occurred two years ago when Georgia was favored by 13 1/2 over TCU. The Bulldogs easily covered with a 65-7 victory in Inglewood, California.
Four years ago, Alabama was favored by nine over Ohio State and won 52-24 in Miami Gardens, Florida.
CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall said he doesn’t see this matchup playing out anywhere close to those games, arguing that the eighth-seeded Buckeyes (13-2) will be pushed by seventh-seeded Notre Dame (14-1).
“Way too high, way too high, way too high,” Marshall said of the point spread. “They’re not going to roll over these guys, I don’t think, unless something crazy happens.”
Caesars head of football Joey Feazel said most of the early betting has come in on the Fighting Irish, “which is slightly surprising as it has been an onslaught of Ohio State action for the past three weeks. I expect this line to come down slightly towards Notre Dame as we get closer to game time and expect this national championship to be slower-paced.”
BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee called the early action “very balanced, which we expect to continue throughout the week. Slightly higher volume on Ohio State money line, but certainly some interest in Notre Dame as well. We anticipate the book to need an outright Buckeyes win, which is also favorable from a futures perspective.”
The College Football Playoff was a four-team event from its first edition in the 2014 season — when Ohio State beat Alabama 42-20 in Houston to win the title — through last year, with the field expanding to 12 teams this season.
Ohio State rolled through the first two rounds, beating ninth-seeded Tennessee 42-17 on Dec. 21 in Columbus, then topping previously undefeated and top-ranked Oregon 41-21 on New Year’s Day in a Rose Bowl quarterfinal that wasn’t even that close.
The final score in the Buckeyes’ 28-14 victory over fifth-seeded Texas in Friday night’s Cotton Bowl semifinal in Arlington, Texas, also was deceiving, but for different reasons. The Longhorns had a chance to pull even with first-and-goal at the 1-yard line before Ohio State’s defense came up with a dominant goal-line stand, capped by Jack Sawyer’s strip-sack that he returned for an 83-yard touchdown.
That play was set up by an outside run on second down that Ohio State stopped for a 7-yard loss.
“Ohio State was very fortunate last night,” Marshall said. “I cannot believe Texas ran that play at second-and-1 at the goal line. They’re ready to tie the game. That thing’s going to overtime.”
Notre Dame got to the title game by beating Indiana 27-17 on Dec. 20 in South Bend, Indiana; Georgia 23-10 on Jan. 2 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal in New Orleans; and Penn State 27-24 on Thursday in the Orange Bowl semifinal in Miami Gardens.
“You really saw this against Penn State: They’ve got speed,” Marshall said of the Irish. “They’re not slow at all. They have almost SEC-type speed on that team.”
Marshall pointed out that the Irish, college football’s most powerful and prestigious independent program, have covered the past 11 point spreads and are 22-6 against the line going back to last season.
“I think Notre Dame could win,” Marshall said. “I really do.”