Alabama’s going to win the 2018 football national championship. That’s the prevailing sentiment. That’s the easy choice.
And as long as Nick Saban continues to coach the Crimson Tide, that belief makes perfect sense. When a guy’s won five national championships in his last nine seasons in Tuscaloosa, when he has both quarterbacks back from last year’s title team and plenty of talent to surround them – including sophomore DeVonta Smith, who caught the championship-winning touchdown against Georgia in overtime – why shouldn’t Bama be the prohibitive favorite to repeat?
Two words: Quarterback controversy. A potentially team-splitting, energy-zapping QB tug-of-war between incumbent starter Jalen Hurts, who’s 26-2 in that role, and the hero of the national championship comeback, Tua Tagovailoa, who threw three second-half touchdown passes to beat the Bulldogs.
The question of which one will start when the Tide opens the season against Louisville on Sept. 1 in Orlando is on the minds of everyone in Bama Nation and most everyone else who follows the sport. It’s the college football equivalent of “Who shot J.R.?” from the “Dallas” television soap opera.
And for once, the control-freak Saban’s famed “process” hasn’t expertly solved anything.
First, he fueled the fire of a controversy he claims he didn’t want by telling those assembled at last month’s SEC Media Days: “I think the number one thing that you will want to talk about is the quarterback controversy that you’d love to create, that you’ve already created, that you will continue to create.”
Then he seemed to threaten both Hurts and Tagovailoa six days after that when he said, “”I’ve told both players, ‘You’ve got to win the team, and everything you do to bring attention to yourself, or anybody even in your family that brings attention to yourself, you’re not doing yourself a service in trying to win the team.'”
So much for that, for at the Crimson Tide’s media day on Aug. 4, Hurts let loose with a statement filled with hurt and anger.
“This whole spring, ever since the (championship) game, (Bama coaches) wanted to let it play out or try to let it die down like it wasn’t something there, because it’s always been the elephant in the room,” Hurts began.
“This is a situation that is uncontrollable. No one asked me how I felt. So now, it’s like, when we try to kind of handle the situation now, for me it’s kind of late. It’s too late. The narrative has already been created.”
Does that mean the wedge already has formed between those siding with Hurts and those with Tagovailoa? Perhaps. But should Tagovailoa win the starting job and the top-ranked Tide roll to win after win, those embracing Hurts will get with the program. Winning solves a multitude of problems.
But what if Tagovailoa doesn’t win? What if he’s more one-hit wonder than wunderkind? What if players begin to grumble that Hurts wouldn’t have lost that game? What then?
Because as good as Bama figures to be, the brunt of its losses to the NFL were on defense. The Tide might well have to outscore folks, particularly in the first half of the season, to win. If a quarterback controversy derails that offense, repeating as No. 1 could become a very big problem.
Not that Bama is the only SEC national-title contender that could wind up with a quarterback issue. Great as Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm was during his true freshman season last fall, any stumble by him this time around that opens the door to a noteworthy Justin Fields performance could create a replay of last year’s Bulldog Shuffle, when Fromm went in for an injured Jacob Eason and never relinquished the job.
It’s a stretch, but who thought Fromm would out-perform Eason a year ago?
As for the rest of the college football landscape, claim squatter’s rights on your La-Z-Boy, handcuff your remote to your wrist and have the pizza delivery guy on speed dial for the opening weekend of the season.
With Coaches Poll No. 6 Washington facing No. 10 Auburn in Atlanta on Saturday, Sept. 1; with No. 11 Notre Dame facing No. 14 Michigan that same night; with No. 8 Miami squaring off against No. 24 LSU in Arlington, Texas, the following day , it shouldn’t take long to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Regarding the rest of the season, eight more games are enough to pick a final four for the playoff.
Start with No. 2 Clemson at Texas A&M on Sept. 8 and at No. 19 Florida State on Oct. 27.
Throw in No. 4 Georgia at South Carolina on Sept. 8 and at Auburn on Nov. 10.
Add No. 3 Ohio State – assuming that Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer somehow avoids termination thanks to the OSU brass being short on buckeyes – at Penn State on Sept. 29 and at Purdue on Oct. 20.
And No. 5 Oklahoma at West Virginia on Nov. 23, the day after Thanksgiving.
Finally, as always, finish it all with a flourish in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, Nov. 24, Auburn visiting Alabama.
That game could be not only for a spot in the SEC title game against Georgia (sorry, Tennessee), but also to secure a place in the College Football Playoff.
But only if whatever happens at quarterback between Hurts and Tagovailoa is no longer a topic of conversation other than something along the lines of, “Wonder if Alabama would still be undefeated without both Hurts and Tagovailoa?”
Alas, with a schedule that appears to have only one troublesome game – LSU on Nov. 3 – away from Tuscaloosa, Bama should reach the Iron Bowl with a perfect record. If the Tide are unbeaten at the end of that game, expect them to play for their third national championship in four years against a team they have met in each of the last three playoffs: Clemson.
Could the competition between Hurts and Tagovailoa derail the Tide? Absolutely. Or it could make the No. 1 team in the country even stronger. Knowing that Saban remains the Bama coach, which option would you choose?
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.