Value of presidential polls? Not much, and not for a while

FILE - In this Feb. 26, 2015, file photo, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Md. The fact is, what the polls do show is that most Americans aren’t yet paying enough attention to make the horse race results worth much at all. An Associated Press-GfK poll was conducted at the end of January. It found that two-thirds of Americans were unfamiliar with two Republicans who have attracted lots of attention for their performance in polls this year, Walker and conservative darling Ben Carson. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File) FILE - In this Feb. 26, 2015, file photo, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Md. The fact is, what the polls do show is that most Americans aren’t yet paying enough attention to make the horse race results worth much at all. An Associated Press-GfK poll was conducted at the end of January. It found that two-thirds of Americans were unfamiliar with two Republicans who have attracted lots of attention for their performance in polls this year, Walker and conservative darling Ben Carson. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File)

By Associated Press March 9, 2015 5 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) – Wondering who’s up and who’s down in the 2016 presidential race?

Go for a run, tend the garden, clean the closet, remove the lint from the dryer, and then do it all over again because it’s going to be a long time before the polls will tell us much about who’s likely to be our next president.

The fact is, what the polls do show is that most Americans aren’t yet paying enough attention to make the horse race results worth much at all.

The first votes of the 2016 presidential campaign are roughly a year away, and 21 months before Election Day. Right now, there aren’t even any officially declared candidates for president.

But there are plenty of polls asking about the few dozen folks who are all but certain to seek the White House, and none of them has the ability to predict who among them might emerge to replace President Barack Obama.