WASHINGTON – Who will win the Republican and Democratic nominations is still anyone’s guess, but the Iowa caucus voters defined three themes that are likely to roll through the rest of this year’s campaign: alienation, disruption and resilience.
Let me unpack those words. Our political system has been shaken by the anger of middle-class voters who doubt the elite’s political nostrums; the insurgent candidates’ provocative, populist counterarguments have had a disruptive effect on both parties; and yet, the most extreme and demagogic responses seem to have been rejected by a resilient electorate.
How will this fractious campaign look to people overseas who are at once hungry for American leadership and dubious about its staying power? I hope they will see that the U.S. is in a necessary process of internal renewal and reinvigoration. We’re grappling with the same issue facing all advanced economies – how to revive growth and distribute its fruits more fairly. An America that can tackle that problem head-on can perhaps help revive a stagnant global economy.
Foreign fears of an American implosion should diminish, too: The likelihood that the bombastic Donald Trump will emerge as the winner – which a week ago provoked gasps, quite literally, from European friends of the United States – now looks a little less likely.
After Iowa, it’s a mistake to pretend that voters aren’t angry with conventional, middle-of-the-road solutions and are prepared to listen to unconventional ones. That’s the message of Bernie Sanders’ success in battling Hillary Clinton to a near draw in the Democratic caucus. And it’s a mistake to think that if only Clinton, or Marco Rubio on the Republican side, could package mainstream politics better, the country would get on board. The next president isn’t going to limp to the finish with a warmed-over, pepped-up version of the past.