Gerson: In Iowa, down the stretch they come

DES MOINES, Iowa – Political pros in this state are not foolish enough to pick a winner this far out from the caucuses (I am: It will be Ted Cruz, whose mix of frank religiosity and anti-establishment zeal is a good fit for the Iowa Republican electorate, and practically no other) but they do love their typologies.

Historically, by one account, there are brand name candidates (think Bob Dole or George H.W. Bush); conservative outsider candidates (think Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum); and idea candidates (think Jack Kemp or Ron Paul). Most Iowa political types I consulted would pick this as a conservative outsider year.

Michael Gerson

By most accounts, the Republican candidates are competing for control of three “lanes”: Hard-Core Evangelicals (HCE), who think the GOP’s main problem is a lack of fighting spirit; Practically Minded Evangelicals (PME), who are socially conservative but value electability; and Terry Branstad Republicans (TBR), who, following in the footsteps of a popular and effective governor, want the largest tent possible consistent with their convictions (and feel the HCEs are going off the deep end).

Note that whatever lane you choose in Republican Iowa, you are likely to hit an evangelical. Scott Walker, it is generally believed, flamed out because (among other reasons) he did not “own his lane.” Based on polling and anecdote, HCEs are breaking toward Cruz. PMEs seem to be moving toward Marco Rubio. And TBRs – a shrinking proportion of Iowa’s GOP electorate – are still divided among a few candidates.

No one I consulted can explain the Donald Trump phenomenon.