From Todd
Hey Jay, now that we have an official 2020 SEC schedule, how do the season’s expected results change? Or do they? In my opinion it’s still going to be Alabama and “team 2” in the West AND Georgia and Florida in the East. Am I wrong here?
Todd-
You are not wrong. Not at all. In fact, the odds from www.sportsbetting.ag, the odds completely support your assertion. Alabama is minus-240 (which means you have to bet $240 to win $100) to win the West. LSU is next at plus-300. In the East, Georgia is minus-140 and Florida is even money with Tennessee next at plus-1400.
And I will see if college football expert David Paschall wants to weigh in on his predicted orders later today on Press Row. Deal? Deal.
In fact, coupled with Chas’ over/under win total questions and the next question in our mailbag, this answer may seem rather short, but we’re about to discuss some SEC football. I’ll ask again: Deal? Deal.
My SEC order of finish for you Todd – Alabama, A&M, LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss. State, Arkansas in the West; Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Vandy.
And I believe no crowds hurts Florida, considering the edge in experience of playing in SEC road environments Kyle Trask would have over whomever Georgia puts at QB, especially early.
OK, Chas asked earlier this week about over/under win totals for SEC schools, and I got this from Peter D. “Why aren’t you giving betting advice? Sports is back dumb (bleep)!”
So let’s explore.
Here are the over/under win totals, again from sportsbetting.ag and these: https://www.sportsbetting.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/ncaaf-team-wins
Alabama – 8. Over, Alabama, at worst is a 9-1 football team.
Arkansas – 1.5. Under.
Auburn – 6.5. Under
Florida – 7.5. Great number, but I will go over, and yes
Georgia – 8.5. Under, so yes, if I have Georgia winning the East and the Dogs and the Gators both at 8-2, it means I have Georgia beating Florida and losing a game they may not expect to this fall.
Kentucky – 5. Over.
LSU – 7. Great number, and a push feels most likely, but to get north of that, LSU will have to win at least two of at A&M, at Auburn, at Gainesville and at home against Alabama.
Mississippi State – 4. Under.
Missouri – 2.5. Over. With Arkansas and Vandy on the schedule, that’s two, so can the Tigers find a way to beat South Carolina or Mississippi State? I say yes.
Ole Miss – 4. Under. I love Lane Kiffin, and I am of the believe that if Kiffin had stayed in Knoxville, UT would be rollin’ friends. If they sweep Arkansas and Vandy as favorites and sweep the toss-ups with South Carolina and Miss. State, the Fighting’ Kiffins still have to beat either Florida or UK or any of the West heavyweights. That’s too many ifs.
South Carolina – 3.5. Under.
Tennessee – 5. Over, again it’s another number that feels like a push but the hedge is north of five.
Texas A&M – 7. Over. I think is a loaded Aggies bunch and a high-priced coaching staff that really needs to deliver, pandemic or not.
Vandy – 1. Under, because 1 is the ceiling.
As for gambling advice – and I think we have some interesting pick ideas for Press Row on the horizon, provided, you know we have a season, and yes, we are in talks to have a weekly SEC pool here on the 5-at-10 if you guys and gals are interested – here’s some week 1 advice that I suggest you get on NOW.
Hammer Alabama minus-21.5 over Missouri. Hammer Georgia minus-24 over Arkansas. Hammer A&M minus 29.5 over Vandy. And I like LSU minus-17.5 over Miss. State, UK plus-7.5 over Auburn, Tennessee minus-3 (but the half) over South Carolina and Florida minus-10.5 over Ole Miss.
Wow, talking SEC picks feels good friends.
From A Reader
We get Jay, you want football. It doesn’t matter the risks to you because your not out there but you want to watch them play. Like every Trump lover your all about money – gutless and chicken (bleep).
I’ll ask you if you would you let your kids play?
A Reader-
Thanks for reading, and good luck with those comprehension classes, because it’s clear you read what you want to read, and that’s fine.
In fact, here’s betting you only hear what you want to hear too. And in a lot of ways, you are the result of the flawed ways we communicate these days, talking only with those who agree with us and immediately dismissing anyone with a different point view.
Either by conditioning or by choice, your tunnel vision has led you to a belief that no matter what the dialogue is, your jaw is set.
Please follow along I’ll use small, one-syllable words and short sentences
Yes, I believe they should explore every opportunity to play. And the reasoning is because the players overwhelmingly want to play.
I believe this at every level – from the pros to the pee-wees. And while neither of my kids plays football, they are playing baseball and softball, and I am helping coach when I can. My kids are going to school.
We distance. We mask-up. We follow the guidelines. But kids and adults – the pros are going to work, like a whole lot of us – face real mental health issues by being complete shut-ins.
I’d gladly not watch a football game all year – that will hurt my analysis here and on Press Row – if it meant serious progress against and control of the Corona.
As I’ve said multiple times – and that you either missed or refuse to realize – this is not about Jay Greeson the football fan, this is about Jay Greeson, member of society sharing his beliefs that trying to find ways to do things shows way more leadership and is more courageous and noble than the quick “No” and “No comment” offered by other leagues, be them the Big Ten or the SoCon or high school associations.
Do I think the season will run its course to the end? I’m not confident in that.
Do I think players are going to catch this? Yes. They already have. (But I agree with a lot of the college coaches who have repeated over and over that college players under the scrutiny and guidelines of the program are safer than amid the student body or in their hometowns.)
Do I think we should try to return to some form of society? Absolutely.
And they may not ever kick off an SEC game this year and tonight may be the only Friday night we have in 2020 in Tennessee, but the fact that Greg Sankey and the TSSAA and everyone else who is taking this daily can look into the faces of their players, coaches and fans and say earnestly they made every effort to try to make it work.
I don’t the Big Ten can make that same claim.
That said, clean the language up. Profanity is the sign of a weak vocabulary to be honest.
From Spy
Was going back and forth about baseball’s unwritten rules with a friend this morning. And it dawned on me. How happy I was to talk about baseball and stuff that happens on the field. Codified rules or not.
Thank you, baseball. And the Red Sox are godawful.
If Michael Jordan had succeeded at baseball, would there be more young Blacks playing it now? He and his brand had an impact on basketball’s growth, without a doubt. I also still contend that Muhammad Ali was the most famous athlete of all time.
Spy-
Thanks, as always for the feedback my friend. I could include you every week in the mailbag but normally don’t to give others their chance to sound off/weigh in.
That said, you covered a slew of topics that are conversation worthy, especially in a mailbag.
Baseball’s unwritten rules, I think, should be chucked. But I also heard Bob Costas this week phrase it more appropriately. There’s common sense and then there is no sense.
Watching a home run go 500 feet? Got no problem what’s so ever. And if a pitcher does, then don’t throw a meatball that Alonzo or Freeman or Soto can hit 500 feet.
Watching a home run that hits the wall and you get a long single or thrown out at second? That’s senseless and a guy should be in hot water in his clubhouse.
Stealing third up 6-0 in the fourth? Yeah, as Frank Robinson was fond of saying, “The only time you have enough runs is when you are talking about a win in the showers afterward.” That’s about the team, the game and the outcome.
Stealing third up 6-0 with two outs in the ninth? That’s senseless and about stats rather than score.
I think through that prism, a lot of these issues can be parceled into needed guidelines and dated details from a game when the fans wore suits and the starting pitchers went nine innings on Tuesday and seven innings on Thursday.
Next topic: Baseball’s new modified Corona rules. Not sure how many of these rules will last when we get back to baseball with fans and the marathon season and whatever our next normal is.
For the most part, I like the new rules. I like the universal DH. I do not miss pitchers hitting to trying to bunt with two strikes. I like the seven-inning doubleheaders. I like the instant runner on second in extra innings.
In truth as long as they don’t build a moat through the outfield are start running the bases clockwise, they should have tried any and all experiments this year. Again, not sure how many will stick, but I hope they explore some of them, especially a short season, because the sense of urgency – and I know they are not going to 60 games – this year has been a lot of fun.
As for MJ, that’s a deep and layered question, and my answer is no. For the following reasons:
> Baseball’s evolution on the youth levels has turned it into a sport that is an elite side hustle for upper-middle-class and wealthy families. This is sad, because goodness knows how many talented baseball players are not getting the chance. The best 12-year-old up here on Whiskey Hill is playing on an elite team out of East Cobb, outside of Atlanta. Seriously. Yes, baseball will find those who can truly play, but crafting your game and improving in your formative years is an expensive endeavor.
> Baseball is not a “I am going to make myself better everyday” by yourself operation. If you are truly driven to be like Mike growing up, all you needed was a basketball. You could shoot it off buildings or trees or find a hoop somewhere and you could always work on your handle and conditioning. To improve at baseball you need equipment and you need at least one other person if not several other people.
> And if MJ gets to the bigs and shines, would he have reached the heights of Tiger? No way, and while Tiger turned a lot of minorities on to golf, the demographics are still quite white.
As for the most famous athletes of all time, wow. Ali has to be there. So does Pele though right? If MJ is there, I’d lean to Tiger over LeBron. Or maybe Yao Ming. Thoughts, gang, on the Rushmore of the most famous athletes of all time?
That brings us to this week’s Rushmores.
Rushmore of best individual single sports seasons: Wilt in 1961-62 when he averaged 50.4 points and 25.7 rebounds and his most amazing stat from that season likely is 48.5 minutes per game, because he played every minute all season and a few games went to OT; Barry Sanders in his final year at Oklahoma State when he had 2,860 rushing yards (3,471 total yards) and 42 TDs in 12 games; Bob Gibson in 1968 with his still-record 1.12 ERA (almost half a run better than Dwight Gooden’s 1.53 ERA in 1986, which is the second-best from the Live Ball Era, as well as 13 shutouts and 28 complete games in 34 starts (how he lost nine games that season is anyone’s guess); Byron Nelson in 1945, yes, Tiger’s 2000 had three majors and Nelson only won one major in ’45, but Nelson won 18 times – yes 18 times – including 11 straight, and finished in the top-10 in all 30 events he entered. Top 10 in every event. KER-razy.
Rushmore of Saturday morning cartoons: Super Friends, Scooby Doo, Looney Toons (especially the Roadrunner and Wile E Coyote) with a special shoutout to all of the School House Rock episodes. (And the Laugh Olympics was also a personal favorite).
Rushmore of 1980s leading actors: Tom Cruise (Taps, The Outsiders, Risky Business, All the Right Moves, Top Gun, Color of Money, Cocktail, Rain Man and Born on the Fourth of July); Harrison Ford (Empire Strikes Back, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Blade Runner, Return of the Jedi, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, Witness, Mosquito Coast, Frantic, Working Girl, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade), Jack Nicholson (The Shining, Postman Always Rings twice, Reds, Terms of Endearment, Prizzi’s Honor, Witches of Eastwick, Broadcast News, Ironweed and Batman), Chevy Chase (Caddyshack, Seems Like Old Tomes, Under the Rainbow, Modern Problems, Vacation, Fletch, Spies Like Us, Three Amigos, Caddyshack II – cameo – Fletch Lives, Christmas Vacation) narrowly over Eddie Murphy (48 Hours, Delirious, Trading Places, Beverly Hills Cop, Golden Child, Beverly Hills Cop II, Coming to America,
Rushmore of Sean Penn movies: Mystic River, Fast Times at Ridgemont High, Dead Man Walking and Carlito’s Way.
From Steve
That’s not a conspiracy. Win Biden wins we remove the idiot who has never taken the pandemic seriously or let the science people develop a long term plan of action. Using LUPIS drugs on the virus or having the Pillow Guy pushing drugs is KILLING US! Why have you gone political?
Steve –
Thanks for playing along.
I’ve been writing A2 columns on everything from politics to people to puppies for more than five years now.
Yes, the radio show is mostly sports, but it has a lot of tangents too. As for this morning chat, it’s mostly sports too.
Which leads us back to the conversation of the “Stick to sports” mantra, which leads me to two quick observations:
> First, sports folks have never just stuck to sports. Think through the years and the changes created in sports. I understand that there are a lot of folks who want the scores and want the highlights.
And SportsCenter and sports ‘news’ shows and reporters and news stories should present those.
I am a columnist and a talk show host. I offer my opinions – on all sorts of topics and talking points. A bunch of them are sports-specific because I love sports, but for way more than the score and scenes. I love the stories and the lessons, the sorrow and the leaders, the successes and the legends.
> Second, have you noticed that the “Stick to sports” or the “Why have you gone political” crowd doesn’t care that you are not talking sports or sharing your politics?
Those claims only come out when you veer from sports and those views – especially political – do not jive with theirs. Because I’m willing to bet from his Tweet that Steve is not a Trump fan, and if I offered a view about the ridiculousness of Trump’s Twitter habits, rather than the “Why have you gone political” it would have been “You tell ’em Jay.”
From Mike
Jay, love Press Row, and I was listening to you guys (Thursday) talking about the Reds broadcaster Tom Something and him saying (Bleep) on the radio.
How do you possibly think he should be suspended for a month and not fired? Come on you know the times and he’s gone.
Thanks and again I listen every day – you and David are great.
Mike –
Thanks for the kind words and for listening to our show. It’s a lot of fun, and David and Wells carry me daily.
Not sure when you were listening, or which conversation we were having about Thom Brennaman, the suspended Reds announcer who said a homophobic slur that sounds like ‘Bag’ into a hot mic, because we had more than one.
My vote on the poll was to the question about ‘what should happen’ to Brennaman, and I personally hope we can all find a measure of grace that unless we’re talking about egregious criminal acts, one bad mistake is not a clear career-ender. (Now if he has a private history of acts similar to this that we are unaware of, well, that’s a different kettle of fish.)
But, if you’re asking what I think WILL happen, and I’d answer that yes, he has called his last game on the MLB level.
From Chas
Arch Manning is the No. 1 quarterback and No. 5 overall player in 247Sports’ initial Top 100 for the class of 2023. Pretty sure you’ve heard of him by now, the son of Cooper Manning, grandson of Archie and nephew of Peyton and Eli. His stats are impressive already. Will he be the greatest of the clan?
And speaking of generations of studs, did you see the video of Charlie and his caddy, Tiger? What are the odds Charlie will excel his old man?
Chas-
Excellent question.
Arch looks the part, and he may be more polished at his current age because of the advancements in teaching, coaching and technology that allows kids to be better at younger ages.
As for Charlie, holy Buckets of buckets of range balls, what a swing.
Heck, when we had Stephan Jaeger on Press Row this week he was scared of Charlie’s swing.
As for their ceilings, well, neither is ever going to go hungry and regardless of mechanics or skill sets, Arch passing Peyton or Charlie passing his old man will only be attainable with a characteristic that can never be seen on film.
Tiger had a hunger to truly chase Jack and be the GOAT, and I believe with everything in my soul that if it were not for the women and the injuries, he would have cruised by Nicklaus with 20-plus majors.
Will Charlie, who already likely has a nine-figure trust fund, put in the hand-bleeping work with 9-irons and stinger 3-woods to reach that level or will he be the sweetest-swinging club champ at his neighborhood Country Club?
Will Arch study and prepare the way Peyton did, because let’s be honest, in terms of just actual football throwing motion and skill set, Peyton may have been the third-best football throwing Manning. (Maybe he’s second, but Eli had the strong arm and the better delivery.)
Manning’s desire to be legendary – and his rivalry with Brady that made both of them a great deal better in terms of legacy – was in a word legendary.
Will Arch have that? Will Charlie? Who knows?
Thanks gang. Have a great week and stay safe.
Jay Greeson