The path to the playoffs is taking shape for most of the NFL. Well, at least in the top of the divisions. Only the AFC South and the NFC East have much drama in the division standings, but the muddling mediocrity that is the salary-cap NFL means the wild-card chases will be as wild as ever.
And that’s by design with the cap and the weighted schedules, and that makes sense for the viewing pleasure of millions come next month. No one wants the races decided early, because that would make week 17 meaningless. (And since most fantasy leagues are done by then, that would be really bad.)
That said, the other unintended consequence of the salary cap means there is too much happenstance for the teams that dominate the league. Injuries in the NFL carry such weight that a run of bad breaks (sorry) changes the perception and the power balance of the league.
Without their weapons on the perimeter – tight end Rob Gronkowski and receivers Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman as well as running back Deon Jones – the 10-1 New England Patriots look vulnerable. The MCL sprain to linebacker Dont’a Hightower may be even more significant, considering the fact that when Hightower was on the field Denver had 15 carries for 43 yards and without him the Broncos had 17 carries for 136 yards and three TDs.
Yes, injuries are part of it, and all the teams are dealing with them. And certainly the Pittsburgh Steelers will not shed a tear for the Patriots considering the Steelers have dealt with a ton of absences from what likely is the league’s best offense when all the pieces are assembled.
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with another round of concussion tests – potentially the product of the Steelers’ two best offensive linemen being out – and he already was on the list of high-profile QBs such as Andrew Luck, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning who have missed time this year with injuries.
Yes, the NFL has a way of bringing the best teams to the front. And in today’s NFL, that more times than not means the most healthy teams.
Power five
1. Panthers. Simply the most complete team in the league right now that lives the mantra of the late Al Davis – “Just win, baby.” That said, do the Panthers scare you in the postseason? It’s not like Charlotte is this world-class home-field advantage, and there are starting to be a few cracks in the back half of that defense. Plus, if you can contain Cam Newton, who on that offense scares you? So, yes, Carolina is well on the way to home-field advantage and is two games clear of the rest of the NFC, but does anyone fear it?
2. Patriots. Now this is a different place for the Pats. New England is one of the most beat-up teams in the league. and it’s not like it’s third-stringers. Gronkowski will miss at least this week with a knee injury, and he could miss more. Without him on the field dictating coverage, Tom Brady will have to be perfect against the struggling Eagles.
3. Cardinals. Another team dealing with a key injury. Running back Chris Johnson, who was well on his way to comeback player of the year, reportedly has a fractured tibia. Johnson was fourth in the NFL with 797 rushing yards and provided the Cardinals an offensive balance that was crucial. Johnson’s backup, Andre Ellington, has turf toe. Welcome to the show, rookie David Johnson, who will be spelled by Stepfon Taylor. No, the other Stepfan Taylor.
4. Broncos. Monster win for the Broncos on Sunday night. By beating the banged-up Patriots, the banged-up Broncos now are only a game back of New England and hold the tiebreaker in the AFC chase for home field. Huge win. And the script has flipped for an offense that is more suited to the skill set of Brock Osweiler than Manning. Consider this: In the 10 games Manning started, he was under center 89 times. In the two games Osweiler has started, he’s been under center more than 90 times. Plus, after averaging less than 3.9 yards per rush with Manning starting, the Broncos are averaging more than 5.0 per carry with Osweiler. Yes, that has a lot of variables, but one of them is there are fewer defenders around the line of scrimmage because Osweiler can make the deep throws with more zip. (That said, there is no better dude than Manning, who according to this report counseled his replacement at halftime in Sunday night’s win over New England. Class act.)
5. Bengals. Maybe the most healthy team physically among the elite. That said, they may be among the most fragile mentally come playoff time. Also, the race for home field in the AFC is huge for two reasons. First, the difference between playing at Foxborough or Denver and playing at home for the Bengals is huge. Second, getting the top spot and facing the glue-and-duct-tape versions of the Colts or Steelers or whomever in the conference semifinals while the Broncos and Patriots slug it out would be a big edge.
Powerless five
28. Chargers. Yes, they just beat Jacksonville. Yes, they have lost more close ones than Al Gore. Yes, they have Philip Rivers, who may throw for 27,000 yards this year. They still stink, and they know it. Here’s a question for just about all of the middle-of-the-pack (and there are a lot of them) to bad NFL teams with a quarterback and nothing else: Why not trade your guy and reboot? What would the Texans give for three years of Rivers with a team that is ready to win now? They would give at least a couple of first-round draft picks, right? How about the Jets for Drew Brees? Or the Bills for Matt Stafford? You’d think so anyway. Then those QB-starved teams have shots to make runs, and the Chargers jumpstart the rebuilding process because the wheel spinning in San Diego simply is not working.
29. 49ers. Gross. And there’s not much that can be done other than remember the good times when the crazy man that is Jim Harbaugh roamed the sideline before management strong-armed him out for Rootin’-Tootin’ Jimmy Tomsula. And yes, the fact that Jim Tomsula breaking wind at a news conference was not a much bigger deal screams of their irrelevancy.
30. Cowboys. Without Romo, they stink. Period. That said, don’t you know that Jerry Jones already is dreaming of using that early first-rounder on Alabama’s Derrick Henry and putting that bulldozer behind that Dallas O-line and rolling the dice for winning it all next year.
31. Titans. Truth be told, the Titans got hosed last Sunday by a terrible call. But that happens. The other storyline that needs to be followed is how careless Marcus Mariota is with the football. He has thrown eight interceptions and put the ball on the ground seven times. We think Mariota looks the part of franchise QB, but turnovers continue to be an issue. Another sneaky good storyline is that hiring Dick LeBeau in the offseason was a stroke of genius for the Titans.
32. Browns. Only Cleveland loses like that in the NFL, right? In case you were in bed at a normal hour, the Browns lined up for a field-goal attempt on the final play of the game against Baltimore late Monday night. The kick was blocked and scooped by Will Hill, who returned it for a TD and a 33-27 win. Only Cleveland, right? Well, add to that the fact that quarterback Josh McCown injured his collarbone in the game and second-stringer Austin Davis was 7-of-10 for 77 yards and a game-tying TD late in the fourth quarter. Sitting behind Davis is the one-and-only John Manziel, and the sideshow continues. Coaching Cleveland has to take years off your life, right? Heck, Bill Belichick and Nick Saban were on the same staff there, and they could not win there. Only in Cleveland.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.