On May 22, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a major tax and spending bill primarily intended to extend the income tax cuts originally embodied in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Congress had made the tax cuts “temporary,” scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, a common sleight of hand employed to obscure the true increase in the national debt over the 10-year forecast window. Without Congressional action this year, tax rates would return to their 2017 levels.
The legislation, officially named the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (seriously), cleared the House by one vote but faces an uphill fight in the Senate, which is not on board without some alterations.
The task of assessing the fiscal impact of congressional legislation is assigned to a nonpartisan agency within the legislative branch called the Congressional Budget Office. The office is the official scorekeeper and is charged with producing a forecast and analysis assessing the impact over a 10-year horizon.
The Congressional Budget Office must, by law, score proposed legislation in comparison with its outlook if current law is maintained. The baseline projection under current law shows the national debt rising from $29 trillion this year to $49 trillion by 2034 if the tax cuts were to expire.