The Republican Party began this midterm election cycle as the heavy favorite to retain the Senate majority. That was still the case just 10 weeks ago, on the eve of the Iran war. Today, the prospect of the chamber’s control changing hands can’t be dismissed.
That arc would suggest the war is the problem. But it’s not that simple.
Voters were already frustrated with the high cost of living one year into President Donald Trump’s second administration, and dissatisfaction was growing with his leadership on a host of other issues — especially among independent voters, who are so influential in midterm contests. Democrats were poised to erase the GOP’s thin majority in the House of Representatives before the U.S. went to war against Iran.
What the conflict did was further expose and worsen two of Trump’s core vulnerabilities: a seeming inability to tame inflation and a demonstrated lack of focus on that issue, which voters care about most.
The result? The map of Senate seats up for control this November now offers Democrats a path to the majority, even if on paper it still favors Republicans.