The Trump years were a time of high passion, of moral certainty, of drawing lines in the sand, of despair at the ethical and intellectual vacuity of political foes. But now it’s time to recalibrate.
From my liberal point of view, Democrats were largely vindicated. From the Muslim ban to the separation of families at the border, from the mishandling of the pandemic to the Capitol insurrection, Democrats’ warnings aged well. Yet one of the perils in life is being proven right.
The risk is excessive admiration for one’s own brilliance and inordinate scorn for the jerks on the other side. It was the Republicans’ hubris after the 1991 Gulf War – won in 100 hours – that led the GOP to march obliviously into the catastrophic Iraq War a dozen years later.
Adam Grant, an organizational psychologist at Wharton, has a smart new book out advising us to “Think Again,” in the words of his title. He explores in part what goes wrong when smart people are too righteous, and he offers a paean to intellectual humility.
Research finds that the best people at making predictions aren’t those who are smartest but rather those who weigh evidence dispassionately and are willing to change their minds.