WASHINGTON – With Venezuela spinning into chaos and collapse, the Obama administration has pondered how to nudge the imploding nation toward political change – without making Uncle Sam a target. The administration appears to have found the right formula this week.
Secretary of State John Kerry announced at a meeting of the Organization of American States that the U.S. will support an OAS plan for a “fair and timely” recall referendum that could replace the failing government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. A senior State Department official specified that “in our view, ‘fair and timely’ means this year.”
The date of the recall referendum is crucial, because if it’s postponed until after Jan. 10, 2017, then Maduro’s vice president could succeed him. Delay would also allow Maduro’s supporters more time to organize militias to sustain the leftist movement organized by Venezuela’s volcanic dictator Hugo Chavez, who died in 2013.
Kerry’s announcement in the Dominican Republic could break the bitter logjam between Maduro’s leftist supporters and the opposition-controlled parliament. Prominent Venezuelans had warned in recent interviews that the nearly bankrupt country was veering toward civil war.
Venezuela is rarely a prominent topic of discussion in Washington. But the oil-rich, chronically mismanaged country illustrates a recurring dilemma in U.S. foreign policy: How can America encourage local partners to drive political change and regional security, rather than taking the burden on American shoulders and, in the process, encouraging resentment of U.S. meddling?